Talks with the Taliban: Implications for India
05 Feb, 2010 · 3059
Vinita Priyedarshi reflects on what successful dialogue with the Taliban may entail
The information released in the media regarding the secret meeting held between Taliban commanders and United Nations Special Representative in Afghanistan, Kai Eide is a good sign. The news as reported in the Guardian is best not discussed in the media by the officials concerned, given the stakes. Yet, the implications on regional players, particularly India, need to be explored. That the government of Afghanistan had been trying for a peace talks with the Taliban is something that has been reiterated many times by the official spokesman. There were even reports that the Afghan government had held talks with the Taliban over 24-27 September 2009 in Mecca during the holy month of Ramadan, these reports were however denied by President Karzai. The Afghan government’s feelers to Saudi Arabia to broker a dialogue with the Taliban did not materialize.
It is true that no insurgency has ever been won through a purely military strategy; insurgents are a part of society and any counterinsurgency strategy that ignore this fact is doomed to failure. Even President Karzai mentioned in the London conference that a purely military solution is not the answer to Afghan insurgency. Besides, the government of Afghanistan is also keen on reducing the burden of the international partner which is a right step considering the fact that foreign involvement has only led to further alienation and disgruntlement of the insurgents. The solution to any insurgency lies in recognition of the rights of the insurgents and acceptance of their genuine grievances. But there are a number of nuances involved in talking with the Taliban which will have serious security implications for India.
It is true that India is not a player in Afghanistan and its contribution in Afghanistan has been limited to providing civilian assistance (it has till date given US$1.2 billion worth of aid) and yet instability in Afghanistan will usher in problems at India’s doorstep. Whether the talks with the Taliban succeed or not is a different matter, but one thing is sure that if dialogue with the Taliban succeeds it will have serious repercussions for India. The Taliban ruled Afghanistan from 1996 to 2001, having a sway over 90 per cent of the territory. During their tenure not only was the law and order situation in shambles, militants also enjoyed a safe heaven. If one goes back to the United States’ drone attack in the Khost province of Afghanistan in the year 1998, one is reminded of the fact that a large al Qaeda camp was running there until August 1998. The province of Khost during the tenure of Taliban was a prime area for militants with links to Taliban and al Qaeda. The alliance between Taliban and its mentor, ISI, in Pakistan is an open secret. Not only this, one also needs to be reminded of the hijack of Indian Airlines IC 184 on 22 December 1998 to Kandahar in Afghanistan when the ruling Taliban government had provided the hijackers with fuel, blanket, food and water. In such a scenario any government in Kabul which has the backing of the Taliban or a coalition with the Taliban is bound to have adverse security implications for India.
There is also another angle to this whole dialogue process going on with the Taliban. At present the Taliban is engaged in fighting with the allied forces and are pooling all their resources into it. The different regional players have different stakes in the region. Instability in Afghanistan is not good for Pakistan and yet Pakistan’s ISI will not want total disengagement with the Taliban as it will deprive them of an ally in their struggle in Kashmir. The Taliban did not recognize the Durand Line (recognized as border between the Pakistan and Afghanistan) during their rule which is an issue which Pakistan would like to be settled in its favour if the Taliban again forms the government again. United States and Britain want an end of instability in Afghanistan and yet they would not like any support to al Qaeda from Taliban as that would defeat the very purpose of their involvement in Afghanistan. Taliban has also made it clear that they do not want to fight the allied forces as long as they do not interfere with their objective of establishing an Islamic state. The consequence of all this would be that once the dialogue leads to positive results and the Taliban gets the feeling that the Western allied forces are not their enemies, all their resources will get diverted to funding militancy in Kashmir and other Central Asian countries and fundamentalist groups in the region.
So the government of India as well as the international community which is supporting a dialogue with the Taliban needs to be reminded of the ground realities. The move by the United Nations to remove the names of five former Taliban members from its official sanctions list reflects the intention of the United States to collaborate with the moderate Taliban to bring them into mainstream politics. It would be in the world’s interest if the dialogue does not bring back the old autocratic rule of the Taliban and hardliners are kept out by all possible means.
It is true that no insurgency has ever been won through a purely military strategy; insurgents are a part of society and any counterinsurgency strategy that ignore this fact is doomed to failure. Even President Karzai mentioned in the London conference that a purely military solution is not the answer to Afghan insurgency. Besides, the government of Afghanistan is also keen on reducing the burden of the international partner which is a right step considering the fact that foreign involvement has only led to further alienation and disgruntlement of the insurgents. The solution to any insurgency lies in recognition of the rights of the insurgents and acceptance of their genuine grievances. But there are a number of nuances involved in talking with the Taliban which will have serious security implications for India.
It is true that India is not a player in Afghanistan and its contribution in Afghanistan has been limited to providing civilian assistance (it has till date given US$1.2 billion worth of aid) and yet instability in Afghanistan will usher in problems at India’s doorstep. Whether the talks with the Taliban succeed or not is a different matter, but one thing is sure that if dialogue with the Taliban succeeds it will have serious repercussions for India. The Taliban ruled Afghanistan from 1996 to 2001, having a sway over 90 per cent of the territory. During their tenure not only was the law and order situation in shambles, militants also enjoyed a safe heaven. If one goes back to the United States’ drone attack in the Khost province of Afghanistan in the year 1998, one is reminded of the fact that a large al Qaeda camp was running there until August 1998. The province of Khost during the tenure of Taliban was a prime area for militants with links to Taliban and al Qaeda. The alliance between Taliban and its mentor, ISI, in Pakistan is an open secret. Not only this, one also needs to be reminded of the hijack of Indian Airlines IC 184 on 22 December 1998 to Kandahar in Afghanistan when the ruling Taliban government had provided the hijackers with fuel, blanket, food and water. In such a scenario any government in Kabul which has the backing of the Taliban or a coalition with the Taliban is bound to have adverse security implications for India.
There is also another angle to this whole dialogue process going on with the Taliban. At present the Taliban is engaged in fighting with the allied forces and are pooling all their resources into it. The different regional players have different stakes in the region. Instability in Afghanistan is not good for Pakistan and yet Pakistan’s ISI will not want total disengagement with the Taliban as it will deprive them of an ally in their struggle in Kashmir. The Taliban did not recognize the Durand Line (recognized as border between the Pakistan and Afghanistan) during their rule which is an issue which Pakistan would like to be settled in its favour if the Taliban again forms the government again. United States and Britain want an end of instability in Afghanistan and yet they would not like any support to al Qaeda from Taliban as that would defeat the very purpose of their involvement in Afghanistan. Taliban has also made it clear that they do not want to fight the allied forces as long as they do not interfere with their objective of establishing an Islamic state. The consequence of all this would be that once the dialogue leads to positive results and the Taliban gets the feeling that the Western allied forces are not their enemies, all their resources will get diverted to funding militancy in Kashmir and other Central Asian countries and fundamentalist groups in the region.
So the government of India as well as the international community which is supporting a dialogue with the Taliban needs to be reminded of the ground realities. The move by the United Nations to remove the names of five former Taliban members from its official sanctions list reflects the intention of the United States to collaborate with the moderate Taliban to bring them into mainstream politics. It would be in the world’s interest if the dialogue does not bring back the old autocratic rule of the Taliban and hardliners are kept out by all possible means.
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