Indian Vice-President's Central Asia Visit
16 Apr, 2008 · 2550
Sitakanta Mishra outlines the security and energy stakes for India in the region
During his remarks at the Delegation Level Talks on 5 April 2008, India's Vice President M. Hamid Ansari said, "Turkmenistan is the first country of my visit abroad ??? This is no coincidence; it reflects the importance India attaches to the Central Asian region in general and Turkmenistan in particular." While the phraseology of his address amplifies diplomatic adulation, implicit is the tryst for securing New Delhi's stakes in the 'New Great Game' in vogue in its extended northern neighbourhood.
Ansari visited two Central Asian countries - Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan - from 4 to 10 April. During the Turkmenistan leg of his visit both the countries inked a historic memorandum of understanding on engaging in the energy sphere, a breakthrough India had long hoped for as it would give it eventual access to Turkmenistan's vast oil and gas reserves that hitherto have been the preserve of Russia and China. India and Kazakhstan also agreed to bolster their cooperation in the energy sphere - something India has been eyeing for close to six years, now. The warmth of the visit can be gauged from the repeated sidelining of protocols to provide a feel good gesture to the Indian dignitary. While the visit has heralded a new chapter in the India-Central Asia discourse, it also brilliantly intends to fill the gaps in India's neighbourhood policy.
Central Asia has always been central to India's strategic thinking. Every development in the region starting from the rivalry between the British and the Russian Empire for supremacy in Central Asia, known as the Great Game (1813-1907), to the current competition termed as 'New Great Game' among US, Russia, Turkey, Iran, China, and Pakistan to secure reliable sources of fossil fuel, has sufficiently impinged upon India's national objectives. India's strategic culture as a "power in the middle" necessitates it to cast its weight in the checks and balances operating among these players. Even as the US is trying to undermine Russian and Iranian gains, China has committed billions of dollars for the development of Central Asian oilfields to fulfill its future energy demands. Europe too, wants to extend its influence by means of NATO's eastward expansion. All this vindicate the high-stakes power politics in Central Asia.
Therefore, there is obvious rationale for India's concerns regarding external influence in the region. The region lies at the strategic junction between three nuclear powers, Russia, China and Pakistan, and at the interface between them and the Islamic world. It is in the middle of three major civilizations - the Islamic, the Christian and the Buddhist - and is seen by many as one of the most unstable areas in the world. Therefore, India as an extended neighbour of the Central Asian Republics (CARs) has major geostrategic stakes in the region.
India's economic interests in the CARs are enormous. Central Asia, home to over 55 million people, is a huge consumer market. Both India and Central Asia have economic complementarities in terms of resources, manpower and markets. The future prospects for cooperation between Central Asia and India in the field of energy security are also important. Confirmed oil deposits in the region are estimated at between 13 to 15 billion barrels, or 2.7 per cent of all the confirmed deposits in the world. Natural gas deposits in Central Asia are around 270 to 360tcf, which constitute about 7 per cent of world deposits.
Peace and stability in the CARs and Afghanistan is a crucial factor for India's security. Being placed in the middle of the Eurasian Continent, it is also one of the most convenient routes of transit and also remains highly vulnerable to religious extremism and terrorism, smuggling of fissile material for WMD, drugs, and arms.
Meanwhile, in comparison to China, India's involvement in the region is meagre. Chinese investments are not limited only to the oil and gas sectors and general trade has increased greatly. China has granted several Central Asian countries loans to buy Chinese goods and the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation and the Yalian China Commercial and Trade Center of Xinjiang have established commercial centers in several cities in the region. However, though India remains powerless to overtly influence the new game, its size, military and nuclear capability makes it a not altogether inconsequential part of the game. India's "forward policy" in Central Asia is bound to generate unease in Islamabad and Beijing.
Underlining its strategic interests in Central Asia, India has already set up Joint Working Groups with many CARs to combat international terrorism. The Vice President's recent visit would definitely be an add-on to the India-Central Asia affinity. However, to complement the process, intensive interaction in many more areas among them is warranted. For instance, there is the need to establish and promote bilateral interactions in social, economic, cultural, political areas; to facilitate and promote exchange of scholars and other professionals; and to build and foster appropriate linkages with institutions in Central Asia so that the volatile region could be a strategic asset for India in its attempt to become a major global player.