Zahedan, capital of Sistan-Balochistan province of Iran, was rocked by two bombings in February. The Jundullah, a relatively new militant group in Iran, but familiar in Pakistan, took responsibility for both attacks. While the international community has condemned the bombings, Iran has accused both the US and al Qaeda for the attacks. Balochi groups in Iran, while condemning these attacks, have highlighted the plight of Balochis - who are Sunni Muslims - under Iran's Shia government.

Who carried out these bombings, and why? Are these Sunnis, fighting Iran's Shia government, as part of a wider sectarian conflict engulfing West Asia? Or, are they Balochis, who happen to be Sunnis, and are like their fellow tribes in Pakistan fighting an oppressive government? Is there an external conspiracy involved to destabilize Iran?

Though the government of Iran blames external conspiracies, the primary reason for the bombings in Zahedan appears to be the growing ethnic divide within Iran. Besides the Balochis, who primarily live in south-east Iran in the Sistan-Balochistan province there are Azerbaijanis, concentrated in the north-west, and Arabs in the oil rich south-west.

The publication of a cartoon in May 2006 in a semi-official newspaper depicting Azerbaijans as cockroaches had led to a series of riots followed by state violence. The oil rich Khuzestan province in the south-west is peopled by ethnic Arabs belonging to the Shia and Sunni streams. During the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s, a section of them supported Saddam Hussain, which resulted in Tehran discriminating against the entire community and keeping the province backward, despite Iran's oil largely coming from here. Since 2005, there have been a series of anti-Tehran riots organized by the local community demanding better treatment.

This ethnic divide and violence is also gaining prominence in the Sistan-Balochistan province, which abuts Afghanistan and Pakistan. The Jundullah, which has taken responsibility for both the February bombings gained prominence in 2005-06 when its leader, Abdul Malik Rigi, announced the kidnapping of eight Iranian soldiers and demanded a ransom, besides freeing some of his fighters. However, Rigi made it clear that he was an Iranian, fighting only for the better treatment of Balochis and not for any separatist cause. Clearly, there is a serious problem within Iran; the ethnic minorities are not satisfied with Tehran's treatment, and are willing to use violence.

The more important question, related to the Zahedan bombings, is: who are the Jundullah? Ever since Gen. Musharraf in Pakistan made a u-turn in his country's Afghan policy, an increase in violence including suicide attacks has occurred within Pakistan, led by a new group calling itself the Jundullah. Assassination attempts on Gen. Musharraf and a suicide attack on the Corps Commander in Karachi during 2004-05 were ascribed to this outfit, which has close links with the al Qaeda and the Taliban. Are both the Iranian and Pakistani organizations, the same? Abdul Rigi, denied any such links with the al Qaeda; and there are no credible links reported between these two organizations. If this is true, then one could conclude that the bombings in Zahedan are not a part of Shia-Sunni conflict, that the violence is primarily ethnic. Besides, the Balochi tribes are not known for religious or sectarian violence.

Third, is there an American conspiracy? There were reports that the explosives used had come from abroad, hinting at US involvement. Tehran has accused the US and the UK of attempting to destabilize Iran. A section in Pakistan too believes that the US is behind the current unrest in its Balochistan province. Chinese influence and investments in Gwadar are cited as reasons for the American interest in Balochistan. If there is an American conspiracy, the international community should understand that it would only make Tehran more paranoid and inward-looking.

Is there a Pakistani conspiracy? It is unlikely that Pakistan would encourage a Baloch movement elsewhere while facing an insurgency from its own Balochistan. Besides, relations between Iran and Pakistan have slowly improved over the years. With the proposed pipeline for the import of gas from Iran taking shape, it is unlikely Pakistan would like to sabotage the economic benefits.

To conclude, it is more likely that the recent bombings in Zahedan are traceable to Tehran's handling of its minority communities rather than any external conspiracies. Almost half of Iran's population belongs to various ethnic minorities; hence unless Tehran improves its governance processes, it is likely to witness more violence. If the US, as part of its 'Iran next' strategy, attempts to encourage the ethnic minorities against Tehran, it could backfire, creating more instability in the region as has happened following conflict between various groups in Iraq. The international community has reasons to worry about this scenario; an unstable Iran would be a greater threat to the region and international peace.