The underlying incentive for nations to join the nuclear non-proliferation regime viz. security from nuclear threats, was never available, especially in the post-cold-war era when open threats were held out by the upholders of the regime. The regime was, therefore, headed for collapse. Conversely, the acquisition of nuclear weapons capability began to be perceived as an insurance against external threats. Besides, the strengthening of nationalistic tendencies, the desire to emerge as regional, if not global players, and to counter the intrusion on sovereignty, which has considerably increased over the last decade and a half, are other factors that have re-enforced the drive to posses the nuclear weapons.

US-Iran: Changing imperatives
The 9/11 terrorist attacks induced significant changes within the dynamics of international power structures and strategic imperatives, calling for policy changes to redefine security interests. National Security Strategy (adopted by the US in the backdrop of the 9/11 terrorist attacks) was an outcome of one such overhaul and the US, which initiated Iran to nuclear technology (in 1959 when the Tehran Nuclear Research Centre was established) and had been a prime supplier of nuclear technology to it since then, now identifies Iran as one of the coordinates of the 'axis of evil' and is lobbying hard to establish it as a violator of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) to isolate and ultimately effect a regime change within it. Well aware of its unilateralist folly in Iraq and banking on reports that Iran is years away from building a nuclear bomb, the US has sought to pressurize Iran through multilateral channels.

Despite these efforts, Iran has remained committed to its decision, and refutes the charge of violating the NPT, claiming that uranium enrichment for peaceful purposes is its legitimate right as a signatory to the NPT as a non-nuclear weapon state. Iran is desperate to acquire nuclear capability for national security, international prestige, diversifying its energy sources, preserving its autonomy and enhancing its bargaining power in the international system.

The deadline fixed by the Security Council resolution, UNSCR 1696, has expired without any sign of Iran halting its nuclear program or its intention to opt out of the NPT. It might be too early for it to do this at present. The North Korean nuclear explosion would definitely intensify efforts to contain Iran's nuclear program even though there is a divergence of views on the sanctions to be imposed. At the same time, this event would boost domestic political and public opinion in Iran towards acquiring nuclear capabilities.

India and the US : Exploring options?
India's vote against Iran in the IAEA, despite having an option to abstain, has been perceived as departing from its historical diplomatic and geo-political posture, although this move was the outcome of sheer cost-benefit analysis. The benefits of the forthcoming Indo-US nuclear deal, though important, were not the only motivation behind this decision. It has become pertinent for India to take sides and diversify its strategic options while engaging with the international system.

Despite having 'civilizational ties' and several bilateral engagements (such as the New Delhi Declaration, 2003) with Iran, nothing substantive was being realized on ground. On the other hand, despite a history of camping at opposite ends, Indo-US engagements have intensified at every level: military, social, political and more so economic.

The present geo-strategic imperatives and a changed foreign policy approach against the backdrop of the 9/11 terrorist attacks has necessitated the US finding a strong ally in Asia. India was a natural choice to help realize a grand strategic alliance stretching from Japan in the East, to Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan in Central Asia to contain China and Iran that pose a threat to U.S. interests. The US is convinced that Iran was an obstacle to bringing India into the ring of U.S. allies; therefore a nuclear deal could lure India away from Iran and China.

Unfortunately, what began as an exercise for mutual gains has now become one for relative gains. It would be imbecile for both nations to backtrack after having altered long held postures in the international domain. The North Korean nuclear explosion should make the US feel all the more committed to the Indo-US nuclear deal as this could develop a strong foundation for further cooperation between the two countries. India needs the deal and the US needs India.