Almost three weeks after the resumption of the bus service across the LoC connecting the divided families of Pakistan-held-Kashmir and Indian Kashmir, as the bonhomie and the euphoria attached with this bus seems to settle down slowly, the time is to look back and ponder how successful this bus service would be keeping in view the severe terrorist threats to the bus service.

Four militant outfits - Save Kashmir Movement, Al-Arifeen, Farzandan-e-Milat and Al Nasreen - which claimed the responsibility for the suicidal attack launched on Tourist Reception Centre (TRC) just before the inauguration of the first peace bus, where the Muzaffarabad bound passengers were lodged, are deadly against the bus service and have threatened to target it also.

As both India and Pakistan seem to be inching towards the peace and this resumption of the bus service is termed as the "mother of all confidence-building measures", the terrorists groups whom the Musharraf regime tried to reign in, have threatened him also saying that under US pressure, this is a sheer sellout over Kashmir.

These four outfits had not only stunned the people by releasing the list of passengers boarding the first bus but they did shock the security forces yet again by releasing the list of passengers who were traveling in the second bus to Muzaffarabad from Srinagar. This had forced the state Chief Minister Mufti Sayeed to make a statement in the J&K Legislative Assembly that the list had got leaked from PoK. Whatever may be the truth, but the fact remains that these terrorist groups have shown their capability to penetrate into the intelligence network in place in the state.

If that was not enough, the terrorists also issued threats to the passengers over telephone too. A caller from London made a call to one of the passengers, Khalid Hussein, a former Deputy Commissioner, asking him not to board the bus. The outfits said that the bus is a coffin and will be targeted by the militants. They asked the passengers to desist from boarding the bus otherwise they shall have to face the music.

Though two peace buses have rolled out "smoothly" amidst heavy security, the fact remains that elaborate security arrangements had to be made for both the journeys in the past three weeks. Right from Srinagar up to the last Kaman Bridge (Aman Setu), the 120-km long road was manned heavily by the army. On both the occasions, the journey to peace was covered under the shadow of gun.

Would the bus-service continue under the shadow of gun and there would be no "normal" plying of the bus on this historic route like other bus services elsewhere? Ask the analysts and the answer is a big "No". It is believed that the bus service would continue like this under heavy security arrangements -army manning the entire route and RoPs (road-opening parties) thoroughly frisking the entire route making the journey to peace a possibility.

The army does not seem to have any problems regarding providing security to the buses. As stated by an Army official, they only "have to take out the troops from battalions deployed along the 120 km Srinagar-Kaman-post road." However, outside Army, it is believed that this would certainly be held at the cost of the their own operations. What concerns the security forces detailed for providing security to the bus service is also the fact that hours after the passengers of the second bus crossed over to Muzaffarabad on 21 April, security forces intercepted a group of infiltrators, killing four militants in Uri sector. This was the first infiltration bid since the first peace-bus started from Uri on 7 April.

Interestingly, the Aman Setu on the LoC, which was crossed by 63 passengers of the two sides to proceed to Srinagar and Muzaffarabad that day, was not far away from Charunda - the site of the encounter. A large quantity of arms and ammunition was also seized from the slain ultras. Authorities have been maintaining since November last year that infiltration of militants from PoK side had decreased to a trickle in the wake of General Pervez Musharraf's withdrawal of support to militants.

In fact, notwithstanding the fact that both Pakistani President General Parvez Musharraf and Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh seem to be committed to the continuing peace process, the Indian army also apprehends an increase in infiltration in coming months in the violence-hit state. According to Lt Gen Hari Prasad, General Officer-in Commanding-in Chief, Northern Command, "As the summer months would arrive, the terrorists' attempt to infiltrate would become more. This has already become evident in the past few days when we had two infiltration bids. Now more such attempts would start in the valley because once the snow melts, infiltration pattern would go up in the valley." This year till now, there were six infiltration attempts in which 12 terrorists were killed. Compared with this, 79 attempts took place last year wherein army had killed 139 terrorists.

The more the infiltration, more violence and more threats to the bus-service. Only time would tell how smooth would be the ride on this bumpy road.