The US sponsored Iraqi elections are round the corner. Election fever is slowly catching up with well organized former exiles and popular home grown leaders including the top Shiite figures, emerging as the real king-makers.

In November 2003, US agreed to transfer power to Iraq and thereafter approached the United Nations to decide on the election process. United Nations special adviser to Secretary General on Iraq, Lakhdar Brahimi, after visiting Iraq in February 2004, found that the minimum period required to hold free and fair elections was eight months. Based on Brahimi’s report, the UN Secretary General Kofi Annan proposed the formation of an Interim Government to the United States, which agreed to the proposal. On 8 June 2004, UN Security Council passed a resolution endorsing the appointment of an Interim Government. Iraqi Interim Government (IIG) consisting of 33 Iraqis was chosen by the United States and the Iraqis now had the so-called, full responsibility to govern Iraq. The transfer of authority from Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) to IIG, which would be governed by Transitional Administrative Law, took place on 30 June 2004. Sheikh Ghazi Ajil Al-Yawar was chosen as President, Dr Ibrahim Jaafari and Dr Rowsch Shaways as two Vice Presidents and Dr Ayad Allawi as Prime Minister. IIG shall function till the formation of a Transitional Government after the elections to be held by the end of January 05 for the National Assembly. It shall consist of 275 members and nominee shall not have been a member of Saddam Hussein’s Ba’ath Party with a rank of Division Member or higher.

The election is based on Proportional Representation System. The Country is regarded as one large constituency. Each group draws up a list of candidates, ranked first to last. The total votes each party receives will determine how many seats it gets in Iraq’s National Assembly. The seats are doled out in the same order as the list; highly placed candidates are more likely to get a seat. Every third candidate must be a woman in order to avoid parties putting all women at the bottom of the list. Names and symbols of political parties will be mentioned on the ballot box. No list shall have fewer than 12 candidates or more than 245 candidates. The advantage of this system is that an Iraqi in exile can vote at the place of exile, small parties and minorities are able to compete against large parties and it would represent all communities. Disadvantage maybe that there would be a splintering of votes thus leading to political instability and could deny a major city like Mosul fair representation should security or other issues prevent large number of its citizens from voting.

The National Assembly shall elect a President and two Deputies and they shall form the Presidency Council who shall name a Prime Minister unanimously, as well as the members of the Council of Ministers upon recommendation of the Prime Minister. The National Assembly shall draft the permanent Constitution by no later than 15 August 2005. It shall be presented to the Iraqi people for approval in a general referendum to be held no later than 15 October 2005. If the permanent Constitution is approved in the referendum, elections for permanent Government shall be held no later than 15 December 2005 and the new government shall assume office by 31 December 2005.

If the referendum rejects the draft Permanent Constitution, the National Assembly shall be dissolved. Elections for new National Assembly shall be held by 15 December 2005. New Iraqi Transitional Government shall assume office by 31 December 2005. The new National Assembly will draft another permanent Constitution.

The resistance against the coalition forces still continue and there is no security for the common people. With no free movement, very less security for electoral party to carry out registrations and other preparations, hence accurate registration, is not feasible in a short time of two months. The elections in Iraq are expected to be held as per schedule. Since US has its own interest in the region it would like to see the future government support its interests. The elections are being held under US-led security forces hence apprehensions of rigging cannot be ruled out.

Why debar the members of Ba’ath party from taking part in the elections? Immediate threat from them is not foreseen. There is a growing expectation that a coalition dominated by Shia, most likely United Iraqi Alliance, is likely to emerge as first the Shia Muslim government in the Arab world. Abdul-Aziz Al Hakim, a Shia cleric and leader of Iranian backed Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq, Ibrahim Al Jaafari current Vice President and Abdel Al-Mahdi are the front-runners for Prime Ministership. It is expected that Grand Ayatollah Sistani will stay in background. There could be an Iraqi linkage with Iran and Syria, which could be of concern to the US. Various Sunni militant groups have told Iraqis not to take part in these elections as democracy is un-Islamic. It is expected that voting by Sunnis would be low. With Sunnis boycotting the elections, the credibility of elections will be a question mark.