The BoB region is one of the most climate-vulnerable in the world. Its strategic, political, social and economic faultlines are also extensive. Together they create fertile ground for volatile security dynamics, social friction and violent conflict. It is a textbook example of the complex relationship between climate change and security, and how an aggregate of both could create emerging challenges for policy-planners.

This report is part of the IPCS-Clingendael Institute project on climate security. It studies the impacts of climate change on transnational and intra-country conflict faultlines, as well as strategic and military dynamics in the BoB by overlaying climate threat profiles over security- and conflict-centric analysis. The broader objective is to arrive at a better understanding of how climate threats interact with conflict and security in the region.

The report has six key findings:

1. Climate threats could intensify regional inter-state military competition and conflict

2. Climate-induced migration will be a major conflict driver

3. Land loss, exacerbated by climate threats, will be a key conflict driver

4. Climate threats will affect the overall resilience of displaced communities

5. Frequent adverse weather events pose a major long-term threat to national governance and security

6. Strategic assets in the BoB region are highly vulnerable to climate threats.