The use of fossil fuels like coal, oil and gas are important factors causing the earth’s atmosphere to get warmer, but this is how economies are structured at present. Fossil fuel use emits carbon dioxide, which the natural sinks in the bio-chemical cycle cannot fully absorb, since the existing sinks like forests, and oceans are inadequate. This increases the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, causing a green house effect, leading to unpleasant, sudden and dangerous global warming. The international forum of the Inter Governmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) has established that the earth’s temperature in the twentieth century rose by 0.6°Centigrade. The twenty-first century will witness further warming due to our present practices and growing energy use. It is axiomatic that tropical and developing countries would be the worst sufferers of consequent climate change.

  The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) was adopted in May 1990 and entered into force in 1994. It had 183 parties on 1 August 2002. The ultimate objective of the Convention was to achieve stabilisation of green house gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere, to prevent dangerous interference with the climate.  This level should be reached within a time frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change. At the third conference of parties to the FCCC in 1997, the Kyoto Protocol was negotiated, which envisages GHG reduction targets for most industrial countries ranging from 8 to 10 percent. Collectively, industrial countries should reduce their aggregated emissions to at least 5 percent below the 1990 level, in the period 2008-2012.  The Kyoto Protocol is not yet in force and as on 1 August 2002 there have been 77 ratifications and accessions (USA had walked out in 2001).  Developing countries who have not contributed to the historic pollution by GHG are exempt.  In an article by Thomas C Schelling in Foreign Affairs (May/June 2002), the reasons for the walkout by the US are 1) Developing countries also need to participate 2) Immense uncertainty about likely extent of climate change and 3) “Voluntarism” is preferred over enforceable negotiations.  The root of the problem is that while the US wants developing countries like China, India and others to take total emissions into account, the developing countries argue that it should be on per capita basis.  

  Measuring CO₂ in the atmosphere in parts per million (PPM), the Third Assessment Report (TAR) recently published by the IPCC indicates that from 280 ppm for the period AD 1000 to AD 1750 (pre industrial era) its concentration reached 368 ppm in 2000. The concentration of carbon dioxide by 2100 may range from 540 ppm to 970 ppm.  Globally, average surface temperatures for the period 1990 to 2100 may increase between 1.4 to 5.8°C. This would lead to sea level rise and adverse changes in rainfall patterns influencing agriculture and human health. What CO₂ level is acceptable is debateable.  The European Union (EU) considers 550 ppm safe but the present level of 368 ppm is considered bad by some. Due to inertia, temperatures are in any case on the rise.  A target of   “stabilisation” of GHGs in terms of ppm which is acceptable needs to be chosen. A new study “Contraction and Convergence” by Aubrey Mayer of the London based Global Commons Institute has recommended that a target be chosen. It suggests a global reduction of 60 percent in carbon dioxide emissions and annual rates of emission to be set on a per capita basis.  This concept is gaining popularity to save the planet from climate change due to GHGs.

  Schelling places the ppm limit between 600 and 1200, beyond which damage may be irreversible. More rigorous research on alternative energy sources, including decarbonisation technologies, greater energy efficiency and sequestration of carbon is suggested in a cooperative mode between nations.   

  The solution to the problem of global warming is complex and impinges on national interests.  The problem is difficult to solve as energy use has also to increase. Less than one per cent of the world’s oil/gas is within India and we need to import it. But we are self sufficient in coal, which has the maximum carbons, hence economic interests clash with environmental interests. Also, oil import dependence directly affects geopolitical interests. Non-carbon based sources like nuclear energy, wind and hydropower are not sufficient. The next round of the eighth conference of parties is in India in October 2002. More debate and action is required on the strategies to overcome global warming.