Pakistan
has been designated by US policy planners and decision-makers as an “enduring strategic ally of long standing”. Military-to-military relationships of these strategic allies apart, Pakistan’s strategic and military assistance to the United States in the last four decades boils down to :-
o Provision of strategic surveillance flights and radar monitoring of the erstwhile
Soviet Union
. The American U-2 flights from
Peshawar
may be recalled here.
o Providing and training Islamic fundamentalists to fight the CIA’s wars in
Afghanistan
in the 1980s. President Musharraf was a coordinator and was interacting with the CIA during the Afghan operations.
o Funneling American arms, equipment and stores for the Afghan mujahideens fighting the proxy war against the Russians in the 1980s.
Pakistan
, as a strategic ally of the
United States
, was notably absent however as a front-line ally during the Gulf War.
Pakistan
chose to send a token military force to
Mecca
and
Medina
“to defend the holy places of Islam, as if these needed protection.”
The current
US
military presence in
Pakistan
for the
Afghanistan
operations is wholly unprecedented. Even in the hey-day of their military alliance relationship, a
US
military presence in
Pakistan
never occurred.
Current reports of its military presence in
Pakistan
indicate that:-
o
United States
has more than 30,000 armed forces personnel stationed in
Pakistan
.
o Four
Pakistan
air-bases in
Baluchistan
are being used by it.
o US troops are on the Afghan side of the Afghanistan-Pakistan border with rights to engage in “hot pursuit” into
Pakistan
territory.
o
United States
has discussed with
Pakistan
the leasing of 22,000 acres of land in
Baluchistan
to set up exclusive military bases for its presence in
Pakistan
.
The
US
military presence in
Pakistan
seems to be acquiring a semi-permanent nature. Statements made by US leaders indicate that its counter-terrorism operations against Osama bin Laden and the Al Qaeda will continue till they are brought to book. This military presence in
Pakistan
, whether dictated to General Musharraf or invited by him will have two implications for
Pakistan
, namely, its internal political situation and its foreign policy.
The internal implications for
Pakistan
could be grievous. It could mark the end of General Musharraf. General Musharraf’s speech on 12 January 2002, while music to the West, is a direct and daunting challenge to the multitude of Islamic Rightists/fundamentalists who embrace not only the economically backward but also the lower and middle rungs of the armed forces, academia and intelligentsia. To maintain that General Musharraf has full control over this situation would be an over simplification. It is political dynamite ready for ignition by any Pakistani politician. The longer the American military presence in
Pakistan
continues the more volatile the situation will become.
General Musharraf’s claim that by allowing the
US
military presence in
Pakistan
he has saved
Pakistan
’s existence and its nuclear assets rings hollow. Pakistanis view their national nuclear assets as being mortgaged now to US which can take them out at will. The
US
, in any case, would never have threatened or allowed anybone to threaten
Pakistan
’s existence. General Musharraf could thus become a victim of his own policy, due to the internal political dynamics and those within
Pakistan
’s military hierarchy.
The
US
military presence in
Pakistan
also has external regional implications, most seriously for
Pakistan
’s “all weather and tested ally”
China
. The major plank of Pakistani foreign policy is
China
, since it forecloses
China
’s strategic objectives in
South Asia
and the
Middle East
. In the absence of any Pakistani quid-pro-quo,
China
may explore its other options. This could be a serious setback for
Pakistan
’s foreign policy.
In conclusion, it can be said that
Pakistan
is in a political and strategic fix. Internally, the
US
such a presence could generate internal disorder and General Musharraf’s exit. Externally,
Pakistan
’s foreign policy choices would get severely restricted. In the Islamic context, Pakistan’s claim to be the ‘Citadel of Islam’ would come into ridicule, when Islamic countries like Saudi Arabia are discreetly pressurizing the US to withdraw its military presence. General Musharraf would be seen as inviting the
US
military presence, not for
Pakistan
’s existence, but to perpetuate his own existence in power.
