The Myth of Kashmir as Nuclear Flash Point

21 Feb, 2000    ·   327

Dr. Subhash Kapila looks into why the U.S and Pakistan perpetuate the likelihood of a nuclear conflict in South Asia, with particular reference to Kashmir
Dr. Subhash Kapila
Kashmir as a nuclear flashpoint in South Asia is a myth perpetuated since the 1980s by the United States and its "strategic ally of long standing", namely Pakistan . This myth is played up in India by a handful of liberals since it suits their vested interests.

 

 

It needs to be pointed out that there were enough detailed studies made in informed circles regarding an Indo-Pak nuclear conflict during this decade particularly in the United States . These included war-gaming scenarios involving use of nuclear weapons in South Asia from a strictly military targeting context, to an all out nuclear exchange and even the extreme case of nuclear blackmail by terrorists. The major conclusions that emerged were that due to a combination of factors of international intervention, geographical proximity of India and Pakistan , weather factors etc, the use of nuclear weapons, was highly improbable, if not impossible.

 

 

The question that therefore requires analysis are the reasons which prompt the United States and Pakistan to so vociferously perpetuate the likelihood of a nuclear conflict in South Asia, with particular reference to Kashmir.

 

 

The US and Kashmir

 

 

The United States may have a general interest in wishing that South Asia does not become a nuclear battlefield because of ripple effects on contiguous regions of strategic interest to it. However the United States would also be aware that in the 50 years of Cold War confrontation nuclear weapons were not used in any of the limited wars from Korea to Afghanistan . Then what explains this concern about South Asia ? 

 

 

The Clinton Administration which has repeated this notion ad nauseum could not be oblivious to the following facts:

 

 

1. No nation, other than United States , has ever used nuclear weapons in any conflict after 1945.

 

 

2. No nation other than USA , has used nuclear coercion e.g., Cuban missile crisis.

 

 

3. In South Asia , India has declared a 'no first use' doctrine. Therefore, nuclear threshold can be crossed only by Pakistan .

 

 

4. In the light of the significant leverages that the United States enjoys over Pakistan-political, military and economic, USA has enough power to prevent and compel Pakistan to desist from any nuclear conflict.

 

 

In view of the above factors, the United States perpetuating the myth that Kashmir is a nuclear flash point is prompted by other motives, namely:

 

 

1. Contain India strategically and confine it to South Asia .

 

 

2. Dissuade India from inflicting a "Limited War" on Pakistan confined to Pakistan Occupied Kashmir. This would make the costs heavy for Pakistan in its proxy war in Kashmir .

 

 

3. By raising the nuclear bogey, it intends to force other nuclear abhorrent nations like Japan . Germany etc. to pressurise India .

 

 

4. Bring about internationalisation of the Kashmir issue.

 

 

Pakistan 's interests in projecting Kashmir as a nuclear flash point are very obvious and attributable to the following factors:

 

 

1. By constantly harping on the nuclear-conflict scare, Pakistan hopes that United States and other advanced industrialised nations would be forced into spearheading an initiative on Kashmir . 

 

 

2. Preempt, hopefully any Indian strategic plans to launch a conventional "Limited War' in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir by indicating that Pakistan may be compelled to use the nuclear option in that event.

 

 

3. The refusal of Pakistan to incorporate the no-first use' principle in its nuclear doctrine is again intended to intensity this myth i.e. Pakistan would use nuclear weapons linked to the Kashmir dispute. 

 

 

Worst-Case Scenario

 

 

The myth can turn to reality only when an irrational Islamic fundamentalist military dictator decides to use nuclear weapons to compel India into giving up Kashmir . Even in such a worst-case scenario, there are compelling reasons that would restrain such lunacy namely:

 

 

1. Nuclear brinkmanship would be under severe scrutiny and surveillance by USA and others. Pre-emption by them is surely possible.

 

 

2. China too, may not be in favour of the use of the Islamic nuclear bomb.

 

 

3. Pakistan would have to take into account, India 's superiority in nuclear weaponry of a ratio of 1:6, if not more, as assessed by Western sources.

 

 

4. Such ratios give India a significant second-strike capability which, could cause considerable damage to Pakistan . 

 

 

5. Nuclear strikes by Pakistan without conventional military superiority over India would be meaningless.

 

 

Conclusion

 

 

Rational military assessments would indicate that the introduction of nuclear weapons in South Asia resulted from India's requirements of deterrence against nuclear threats from beyond the South Asian confines, while that of Pakistan emerged as a result of an India-specific deterrent requirement. If the requirements of deterrence of both India and Pakistan are met, there is no convincing rationale for Kashmir becoming a nuclear Flashpoint especially when India has unilaterally declared a 'no-first use' policy. Any irrational nuclear blackmail on Kashmir can emerge only from Pakistan . India has the capability and should develop the will to call off Pakistan 's nuclear blackmail to explode the Pakistani side of this myth.  

 

 

 

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