Report of IPCS Seminar held on 6 January 2008

Chair: Maj. Gen. (Retd.) Dipankar Banerjee, Director, IPCS
Speakers: Dr. D Suba Chandran, Deputy Director, IPCS
Prof. Amitabh Mattoo, School of International Studies, JNU

The elections which were recently concluded in the state of Jammu and Kashmir, were successful to a great degree, thanks to the Governor of the state. There had been doubts about how electoral reforms or free and fair elections would be managed, given the recent uprisings in the state, particularly to do with Amarnath land controversy, but the elections proceeded as planned for. The average turn of 61 per cent is very high for the state, especially given the last turnout of 44 per cent in the 2002 elections. The turnout even crossed 70 - 80 per cent in the border areas. The reasons posited for the same are:

" There was no pressure from the militants
" Given the length of time from the past elections and current developments, the environment in the state was political charged
" There were over 1300 candidates up for elections [the fact that most of them were declared inadmissible and lost their profits does not take away from it]
" There was no violence during the elections, a first in 20 years - on the one hand, it could have happened so because the separatists did not want to cause any violence, but on the other, it could simply have been that they did not expect a turnout decent enough to justify the same
" There was no pressure, whether to vote or not to, as opposed to the 2002 elections, when there was overwhelming pressure to vote

The separatists called for a boycott of the elections, which they are wont to do. However, this time, they were roundly unsuccessful in doing so, and it bears examination whether or not the separatists have lost their influence in the state. The rural/urban divide did get clearly demarcated, with Srinagar polling only 22 per cent, as compared to the previously stated 70 - 80 per cent in the rural areas. However, even the 22 per cent turnout was high, in comparison to the 4 - 8 per cent turnout in 2002. Similarly, the communal divide was also clearly visible, even in district not usually known for it. The National Conference remained the largest party, as in the 2002 elections, with 28 seats; the Congress increased its take over the 2002 elections, from 17 to 20; the PDP also went up, from 16 to 19; but the most surprising increase was BJP's, which went from having 1 seat, to 11.

In North Kashmir, while the National Conference was able to maintain its numerical strength, it polled seats from different places as compared to the last elections. Srinagar was the least polled. The PDP did well in South Kashmir, as did National Conference and the Congress in Ladakh. A point to be noted was that whichever party won a seat, depended a lot on its performance in the past few years. Hence, performance, or the lack thereof, definitely made an impact in these elections. The communal divide is making inroads into districts like Kishtwar, where both BJP and PDP are gaining. It's clearly visible in Jammu, where BJP increased its seat count from 11, as opposed to 1 in the previous elections.

Questions which have come up with these elections:

" Given that performance appears to have become a decisive factor in the elections, how should Omar go about his administration?
" How should one address the divides coming up in Jammu, as also as an echo of the SASB crises?
" What will be the issues that will come up as a result of the BJP being in opposition?
" The concept of Azadi vis-à-vis voting - how far can the two be mixed?
" Where do the separatists go from here?

Amitabh Mattoo - Policy Implications of the J&K Elections

These were possibly the most inclusive and credible elections in quite a while, much like the 1977 and 1983 elections were. But given the circumstances, they were especially remarkable. There were questions on how such a large turnout came into being, given that the region had been strife with uprisings earlier. But it seemed that there was a genuine sense in the valley to use this opportunity for all that it was worth. Pakistan's seeming quietude may also be questioned, given their history of disruption, so far as elections are concerned.

While it is a fact that most people voted on the platform of governance and performance, and they said so as well, there was more to it than that. There are many expectations which the people of the state have, as a result of the outcome of these elections: expectations of Omar Abdullah; physical security measures and human rights redress; a relook at the AFSPA, so on and so forth.

On the political front, autonomy is a sentiment which will have to be dealt with, and given the regional balance or lack thereof between the three regions, reconciliation seems contentious. Given the current sentiment in the country with regard to the Mumbai situation, as also that general elections are forthcoming, it is unlikely that the Prime Minister will make any bold decisions on the state any time soon. Thus, it will fall on Omar to do something beneficial for the people, and fast, or risk invoking the public sentiment against himself. And regardless of the fact that they are coalition partners, if such measures embarrass the Congress, it would not necessarily hurt Omar.

The People's Democratic Party (PDP) will bear watching post-elections, for in the situation they're in, they can either moderate themselves to become more acceptable for alliances, or become more radicalized to maintain their strong support base. Given that it is unlikely for the PDP to be accepted as an alliance partner anytime soon (not that they would accept it either), the latter scenario seems more plausible.

The BJP is likely to be reactive to any imaginary policies, should the NC choose to introduce the same. Their support base has been built up by the RSS, which has done a lot of good work in areas like Rajouri, Poonch, so on and so forth, and the polarization that is now obvious among the electorate, goes far deeper than the figures betray.

As far as the immediate future is concerned, the scenario seems fairly dismal. But if the Congress were to become more imaginative in their approach to this situation, and act and support Omar, progress could be made. Initiating a discussion on items not necessarily comfortable would be useful, since the Ahmed Working Report did not fulfill its objectives. The youth should be addressed and engaged constructively, for they form the bedrock of any militant activity. And in addressing all these issues, neither coalition member can afford to wait till the general elections, for they would risk refuting the people's faith in the democratic process.

DISCUSSION

" While it is true that there was no overt coercion to vote, as was in the 2002 elections, there were hidden aspects of the same.

" Kashmiris are a very emotional people, as has been seen with their response to the shrine board issue. Yet, on the subject of Azadi, there is a realization that it means more to PoK, than the others, who have gotten more assimilated with the bus connections, and so on. Thus, separation is not on the cards. The charm of Azadi, then, has disappeared. Now, people are more concerned with water, electricity and food. This is a turning point in the minds of the locals, and a moment for the government to take advantage of.

" While the BJP has gained more seats than in the previous elections, it must not be made too much of, for most of the seats they have won are a reflection of the ones which other parties have lost.

" Development, on a broad-based level, must be explored - specifically, the dimensions involving roads, rail links, airports and broadband connectivity. The people of the state must be given a clear indication that the government intends to address these issues.

" Azadi has now become more about autonomy, yet it should not be played down, for the Ministry does not have an answer for it yet.

" The Hurriyat has gotten marginalized in these elections, but they remain to have influence over extremist elements, and should they become reactive, Pakistan is waiting to support them.

" Omar Abdullah's choices have gotten narrowed to the point that he has to walk a thin line between the radical factions and the views of his coalition partners, which should be interesting to observe.

" The regional divide in the state has always been present, even though it may not be as strong as it used to be. Post-Amarnath, the outpouring of sentiment did get violent to an extent, and were the agitation to be reignited, it would be much more difficult to bring back under control.

" Even if the elections were rigged, they could not have worked out any better.

" A little over two months remain for the general elections to be called for, which means that the central government (the lead party of which is a coalition partner in the state) would not be keen on taking any imaginary steps just yet.

" An autonomy formula must be worked out, but it may not necessarily be structured into what the future of the state must be.

" Although these elections were important, the seeds for the success of the same were sown in 2002, which was the real watershed. The disruptions by Pakistan, which were missing this time around, did not happen in 2002 so much either.

" The voter must be given his due - he may be sentimental, but he's also very savvy. He wants change, and for that, he's come around from demanding Azadi to wanting poor governance to be addressed first.

" All the variations in seat allotments since the previous elections, has been at the expense of the independents, whose representation has gone down from 15 to 6. The PDP might not have won majority, but it has gained more presence in North Kashmir and outside the valley, an aspect which cannot be ignored.

" The army has been much criticized with respect to the AFSPA, which is more maligned than it should, especially in light of the fact that it is the government which authorizes the act. Besides, the army's only n a few hold-out areas now, and that withdrawal, even to that extent, has been appreciated. Ideally, of course, full withdrawal would be a very positive measure.

" It is not so much the army which is at fault, but the BSF and the paramilitary forces which are the problem.

" It would be unwise to misread the militants' capability, as the militants misread the likelihood and turnout in the elections.

" In terms of elections and connected processes in South Asia, there has been a maturation on the part of the voters, signifying a disconnect from vote bank politics.

" The concept of water, food, electricity vying for precedence over Azadi applies as much to the northeastern states as it does to J&K. However, in either case, the sentiment for independence is, by no means, diluted, and hence, the element of separatism must not be ignored.

" Some important questions that will be of important bearing for the future include - What is the PDP going to do at this juncture in J&K politics? What is/will be the reaction of the Pakistani government and/or army? Post-Mumbai attacks, has the linkage, or perception thereof, between separatists and Pakistan gone down? How can the elections be posited vis-à-vis Islamization?

" Mufti Mohammed Saeed, the leader of the PDP, is a highly practical politician, who is unlikely to do anything which will hurt or render questionable the party's position. Keeping that in mind, the idea of PDP's posited radicalism must be reviewed.