The Sri Lankan Army has captured Kilinochchi, the Tigers' capital. There are reports that the Elephant Pass has also fallen and that the fall of Mullaitivu is only a matter of time. LTTE supreme, Prabhakaran, is on the run. However, this is not the first time that the Tigers are on the run. They were on the run when the IPKF took control of the northeast of Sri Lanka, and they did come back to take control of their 'Eelam.' Let us examine what is different in the present context.

The Tigers succeeded in projecting that they were freedom fighters, and were protecting the interest of the Sri Lankan Tamils when they confronted the IPKF. There was sympathy for them in India, especially in Tamil Nadu. The LTTE had several units in Tamil Nadu, attending to a number of vital tasks for the Tigers during this confrontation. They were able to maintain a constant supply of sensitive items required for their war effort, like petrol and diesel, batteries, explosives, medicines and other such items from Tamil Nadu; they had a successful publicity unit functioning from Chennai attacking the Government of India, and their injured cadres were treated in various hospitals in south India and so on. The Tigers also received support from various political parties of the opposition in India though the Indian Army was fighting them. Further, the Tigers had their bureaus in at least fifty capitals of the world, and were able to garner sympathy and funds for their 'liberation' struggle. Their shipping lines were able to keep up a constant flow of sophisticated arms and ammunition from the arms bazaars of the world to their jungle hide-outs.

What is the difference in the situation faced by the Tigers when the IPKF was battling them and today, when the Sri Lankan army is driving them out? The LTTE had several sensational victories in battles during their campaigns titled 'unceasing waves' but luck started turning against them after Rajiv Gandhi's assassination, when they were first proscribed by India. Till then, they could hide behind the claim that none of their Black Tiger operations could be traced to them. The Gandhi assassination changed it all.

Today, several countries, including the US and the EU, have banned them. They are branded as a terrorist organization by the world. Their ships have been destroyed, one by one, adversely affecting their supplies of essentials to keep their war going. Their activists and supporters are apprehended as soon as they show up in Tamil Nadu. Thus, Tamil Nadu has become out of bounds for them, some noises to the contrary notwithstanding. This is a serious loss to the Tigers, though they used to claim that they can fight the Sri Lankans on their own.

The break in their ranks, something that was unprecedented till then, happened in 2004, when 'Colonel' Karuna left the LTTE and raised the banner of revolt. This affected their recruitment base, and gave the Sri Lankan army an insight into the formidable strategies and tactics of the Tigers. It is thus no longer the 'invincible' LTTE that had captured the headlines worldwide as a ruthless guerilla outfit.

It remains to be seen whether Prabhakaran and Pottu Omman can go back to their jungle days, something they had successfully done when the IPKF was in Sri Lanka. Though according to Prabhakaran, nature is his friend, and history his guide, the circumstances that surround him now are completely adverse, including his age. It will come as a surprise if the LTTE is able to pull back from the jaws of the defeat that is staring at them.