Pakistan raising the nuclear ante to stymie India is along expected lines. Speaking to a (private TV channel) on 5 December 2008, Dr Samar Mubarakmand, a Pakistani nuclear scientist, said that Pakistan was competent to launch nuclear missiles at a notice of ten minutes, in case India attacked Pakistan. Ever since India put itself in a nuclear cage by declaring openly that it did not want to be portrayed as a nuclear aggressor, it became more of a target for terrorist strikes from Pakistan than ever before. India's anti-terrorism strategy, particularly against Pakistan-oriented terrorism, lacks the much needed nuclear punch. Needless to say, India acquiring a nuclear status in 1998 only to have Pakistan responding in equal measure shortly thereafter, has proved to be counter productive from India's security point of view.

India's continued lackluster response to Pakistan's diabolic acts of terrorism targeting innocent civilians has often been interpreted as a sign of weakness. Despite the gravest provocation in 1999, India baulked under nuclear pressure from Pakistan. And now, the very same pressure is preventing India again from being hawkish on Pakistan. Instead, India is looking at softer options and urging the world community to put diplomatic pressure on Pakistan to act against terrorist groups responsible for the Mumbai attack.

As a nation, Pakistan is quite used to handling international diplomatic pressure. Past experiences would suggest that diplomacy is a failed option against Pakistan-sponsored terrorism. At a time when general elections in India are only a few months away and public sentiments are running high against Pakistan, the ruling party in India needs to grab the opportunity offered on a platter by Pakistan, failing which the Mumbai attack will go down in history as just another missed opportunity.

A week before the terrorists struck Mumbai, the financial capital of India, on 26 November 2008, the President of Pakistan, Asif Ali Zardari, had offered India the guarantee of 'No First Use' vis-à-vis nuclear weapons. A week later, it is threatening to resort to the same nuclear blackmail. Perhaps it is time to call Pakistan's nuclear bluff. An NFU offer from Pakistan would normally suggest Pakistan having acquired second strike capabilities against India.

In the current scenario, India is three times ahead of Pakistan in terms of nuclear warheads. Insofar as the international community is concerned, it also needs to seize this opportunity to de-nuclearise Pakistan. Ever since Pakistan turned nuclear, the world has lived with the fear of its nuclear weapons falling into the hands of rogue elements. Perplexities with Pakistan's nuclear weapons at a time when the nation is becoming increasingly chaotic and ungovernable, would only compound the problems at a later stage.

The NFU offered by Pakistan had little to do with its desire for improving bilateral relations. Pakistan's economy is at its weakest today. It is facing serious default problems, with up to $8 billion needed to repay sovereign debts due to mature over the next year. It has barely enough foreign currency reserves to meet six weeks worth of imports. Amidst a dwindling foreign currency reserve and inflation currently pegged at 25%, Pakistan is now looking at the World Bank, the IMF and countries like United States, China, United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia to bail it out from the present economic crisis.

Although Pakistan has resisted, for the present, the IMF advice to cut down on its defence spending by at least thirty percent, to tide over the present economic crisis, Islamabad will be forced to do so in the near future, in the face of mounting fiscal deficit. The present economic scenario does not allow Pakistan to continue its strategic rivalry with India. An impending war with India is causing nightmares across Pakistan.

Pakistan also stands exposed today because of its explicit support to terrorist organizations Al-Qaeda and Taliban in the FATA region. The increasing American attacks on its soil to hunt Al-Qaeda terrorists, has left Pakistan in a quandary. Increasingly under the U.S. scanner, it is trying to reposition itself before it begins to feel the heat of changed U.S. strategy in South Asia under the new President. Pakistan is at a breaking point.

A two-pronged approach, with India closing in on the eastern front and the ISAF intensifying its operations on the western front, is the best option to deal with Pakistan at the moment. However, a strategy like this entails the actual risk of Pakistan bringing to use its nuclear weapons as a first strike option. Therefore, pre-emptive strikes on Pakistan's nuclear installations become mandatory, before India decides on any military response to Pakistan-sponsored terrorism.

A broken, divided, and chaotic Pakistan, living dangerously with nuclear weapons, is an appalling prospect. But it is a prospect that cannot be just wished away. India needs to send out a strong and clear message that a nation with one billion-plus population, growing at 8-9 per cent economically, can not be messed around with. The time is ripe for India to take decisive action. The odds are clearly against Pakistan.