In a given conflict region, the electoral process among other political processes, acquires significance both for its symbolic import as well as for the hope of ushering in practical changes on the ground. This is particularly true for the state of Chhattisgarh that is witnessing only its second assembly elections and first since its southern belt emerged as the hotbed of the Maoists. For a state crippled by the extremist violence, the elections provided an opportunity to put things on track and regain legitimacy. Unfortunately, these elections are unlikely to have any impact on the Naxal violence raging in the state. This is primarily because the main issues attracting/sustaining the Maoists in the state (such as marginalization of tribals and the controversial anti-Naxal Salwa Judum campaign) have not been addressed by the main political parties namely the BJP and Congress (I) during their election campaigns. In addition, the state lacks a strong autonomous tribal voice to spearhead their struggle.

The Naxal conflict is concentrated in the southern tribal-dominated districts of Bastar, Dantewada, and Kanker. While Scheduled Tribes (ST) constitute more than 80 per cent of this belt's population, thereby forming the backbone of the Naxals, they constitute only 35 per cent of the state's population, and even less so of its politics. Contrary to popular perception, Bastar and Dantewada do not hold the key to the elections. In fact, the above-mentioned three districts constitute only 12 constituencies out of a total of 90, that is, approximately only 13 per cent of the Legislative Assembly (LA). This in itself tilts the gravity of electoral process towards the northern plains inhabited largely by farmers rather than the forested southern belt inhabited by tribals.

As a result, it was issues affecting the plains such as rice distribution and implementation of the National Rural Employment Guarantee Act that occupied center stage during the election campaign while those linked with the Naxal violence such as the Salwa Judum, misuse of Chhattisgarh Special Public Security Act, the detention of Binayek Sen, and land acquisition remained in the background. The future of Salwa Judum, one of the core issues responsible for the unprecedented violence in the state over the past three years, remains unclear under any new administration. Since Congress (I) MLA Mahendra Karma was a founder of the movement, the Congress (I) has been reluctant in using its 'failure' to garner votes against the ruling government. While the BJP on the other hand strongly supports the movement, the issue has not been mentioned in its manifesto. The government's current plan vis-??-vis the tribals of the 644 displaced villages is to resettle them in new villages along the roadside in Bastar and Dantewada districts and grant them Rs.12,000-Rs.20,000 to build their new homes. However, the impact of such a move on the tribal identity and culture could be negative and result in further alienation of the tribals.

Another crucial issue captured by the Maoists is displacement in the mineral-rich southern belt caused by the industrialization drive in particular, and export-oriented development policy of the government, in general. The tribals have generally protested against the major plants and land acquisition attempts by the government, be it National Mineral Development Corporation or Tata steel plant in Nagarnar village and Lohandiguda block of Bastar district, or Essar steel plant in Dhurli and Bhansi villages of Dantewada district. However, these issues have failed to find representation in the state's politics. Despite the Congress attack on the incumbent BJP government for indulging in underhand deals with Tata and Essar, it has not offered a stance any different on the development policy of the state.

The marginalization of the tribals is also reflected in the fact that the state has neither a strong autonomous tribal voice to spearhead their cause nor a political party of the tribals. Of a total 1,066 candidates contesting in the elections, 526 belong to the General category whereas 196 and 344 belong to the SC and ST respectively. The tribal leaders of the mainstream parties are considered generally to be subordinate to non-tribal leaders. Among the most prominent local tribal leaders is Karma, an MLA from Dantewada for ten years. However, his image has recently been tarnished in part due to the controversies and violence surrounding the Salwa Judum and in part because of the recent expose of him allegedly bribing tribals to win their vote. An FIR has been lodged against him for this latter reason under the Representation of People's Act.

The result of the elections therefore is unlikely to impact the conflict. This is unfortunate for the resurgence of tribal identity has created a political vacuum in the state which is being usurped by the Maoists. The state's politics can no longer afford to neglect the issues affecting tribals based on their relative small numerical strength in the LA. While the inclusion of the tribals in the political process may only be the first among other steps in addressing their grievances, it nonetheless is important for breaking the support enjoyed by the Maoists and therefore must constitute a core part of the state's counter Naxal policy.