China: A Rising Threat in Space
23 Oct, 2008 · 2713
Sanjay Kumar examines the strategic implications of China's launch of the Shenzhou-7
On 27 September 2008 China reached another milestone in its space programme when a Chinese taikonaut, Zhai Zhigang, ventured out of the spacecraft, Shenzhou-7, and performed a 30 minute-long spacewalk. Shortly after the taikonaut returned from the spacewalk, the Shenzhou-7 released a micro-satellite BX-1, weighing 40kg and measuring 40cm on each side, to take pictures of the orbiting mother spaceship. The BX-1, orbiting in tandem with Shenzhou-7, took thousands of stunning pictures of the mother spaceship, leaving the world greatly impressed about China's growing scientific and technical capabilities. Live telecast of the launch of Shenzhou-7 - the first such event in the history of China was equally impressive, as it reflected China's growing confidence in itself as a space power to reckon with.
The release of the micro-satellite from Shenzhou-7 and the unintended trajectory it gained immediately after the release - the micro-satellite began to drift away from Shenzhou-7 after its release but it was finally brought under control - have since left many unanswered questions with rising fears whether China could have been done this with the intention of testing capabilities required to develop a co-orbital anti-satellite (ASAT) weapon. Unlike India, China's space programme is under the control of its military. Therefore, the strategic implications of China's recent rendezvous with space cannot be completely ruled out. Micro-satellites such as the one used by China can be also used for non-kinetic communication or surveillance missions. Meanwhile, it would be unrealistic to expect China to reveal the truth behind the erratic maneuvers of BX-1. Nevertheless, this incident has ignited a debate among informed circles.
It is no longer a secret that China is developing asymmetric capabilities to fight in space. In January 2007, China stunned the world by directly shooting down with a ballistic missile, one of its own obsolete weather satellites orbiting about 537 miles above earth. The missile carried a "kill vehicle" and destroyed the satellite by ramming it. That experiment clearly demonstrated China's ability in tracking and bringing down an orbiting satellite from stand-off positions on earth. The growth of China as a space power given its asymmetric capabilities poses pertinent danger to the space assets of other nations. A disturbing fact related to Shenzhou-7 that has now surfaced is that Shenzhou-7 had orbited dangerously close to the International Space Station, flying to a distance of about 45km (27 miles) from it.
The US and Russia spend huge amounts of money to keep the ISS safe from homing objects in space, as such they have developed capabilities required to maneuver it away before any object actually hits it. Similar efforts would be needed by developing nations who intend to put up space stations in future or even by those nations who already have their satellites orbiting in outer space. Besides China, at least three other Asian powers, India, Japan and South Korea have planned ambitious space missions, including manned lunar missions and setting up of space stations at some point of time in the future. While it is not necessary that all space missions must have military objectives to achieve, it is imperative for the nations involved in space exploration to gear up for challenges arising from asymmetric threats in space. The Chinese are masters in the art of deception and it should not come as a surprise if the Chinese let BX-1 drift away on purpose to test maneuverability required in colliding a micro-satellite with an in-coming space object.
The decision by India to set up an Integrated Space Cell in June this year, to function as a single window for integration among the armed forces, the Department of Space and the Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO) could have been largely influenced by China's experiment with ASAT weapon in 2007. Elsewhere, Japan's parliament passed a law on 21 May 2008 that would allow its military to launch advanced satellites for intelligence gathering and missile defence. The law, however, restricts the military use of space only for defensive purposes. As China and India are engaged in strategic competition with each other, it is essential that India closely monitors China's every move in space.
For the past many years, the Chinese have been striving hard to achieve modern fighting capabilities consistent with Western technology and space continues to remain an integral part of their military modernization goals. Given the current pace of China's military reform and no let-up in budgetary allocations to sustain it, it is quite probable that China will bridge the present technological lag with Western militaries sooner rather than later.
Space dominance, however, like the one the US military presently enjoys still remains a distant dream for China's military. The latter is painfully aware of the technical deficiencies affecting it military preparations to conduct a full-scale war with technically more advanced nations like the US. Therefore, until China is fully confident of its fighting capabilities in the present techno-scientific spectrum, it is more likely to avoid direct confrontation with western powers. As an interim arrangement, it has however adopted the policy to exploit asymmetric means to neutralize or deny any technical advantage that its adversaries might enjoy over it.