Report of IPCS Seminar held on 3 March 2008

Chair: Amb Eric Gonsalves

Speakers: Prof Kalim Bahadur, Mr P R Chari, Dr D Suba Chandran

Prof Kalim Bahadur

The biggest question facing the new government in Pakistan is whether it would be able to clean up the mess left by the Musharraf government. What will the government do? What are the tasks faced by it? The mess created -constitutional, political, and economic -is so huge that it will be a challenge to any party that forms the government in Pakistan.

No party has secured a majority, nevertheless, it is clear that the PPP will be able to form the government supported by PML-N and the ANP. This is where the problem starts. The history and ideology of PPP is entirely different from that of PML-N. In the euphoria of Musharraf's defeat, both the parties appear to be friendly. However, differences have cropped up over some important issues. For example, Asif Zardari has stated that he is willing to work with Musharraf, whereas Nawaz Sharif has repeatedly said that he wants Musharraf removed.

On the other hand, the United States has not given up on Musharraf. They do not want Nawaz Sharif to be part of the government because he is suspected of having links with militants. Musharraf, on the other hand, continues to retain power under Article 58 b (2) which indemnifies the military government for whatever they have done in their regime and grants him the power to dismiss the National Assembly. Musharraf has not shown any inclination to step down. So what can Musharraf do apart from dissolving the parliament? What is his relationship with the army? What action will the Army take if there is another crisis in Pakistan?

General Kayani has given some positive indications, however, only for cosmetic effects. He has withdrawn army officers who had been deputed to civilian jobs. In a way, this is a confidence building measure because the army has been severely criticized. In the case of a deadlock, that affects the institutional interest of the military, the army is likely to take power again. The Americans are still calling the shots as far as Asif Zardari is concerned and this is one of the many difficulties in forming a government that includes Asif Zardari and Nawaz Sharif.

What will happen to the democratic process in this situation? If Musharraf has the upper hand, then it will not be restored and, even if restored, it will be heavily restricted and controlled. Given the American hold on the Pakistan army, Musharraf is not likely to go easily. Pakistan is still not out of crisis, and it will take some more crises for Pakistan to return to normalcy.

P R Chari

Overall, the elections results reflect a negative vote against the PML-Q and Musharraf. In totality there is a confusing political scene emerging in Pakistan; therefore, a coalition party in the National Assembly and coalition governments in the Punjab and the NWFP can be anticipated. The province to watch is Balochistan because there is some information to the effect that the Jamait-ul-Dawa- the former Lashkar-e-Taiba, is shifting its base to Balochistan.

Whoever forms the coalition government has to respect the institutional requirements of both the Pakistan army and the United States. Ultimately, the good old troika will get established. There will be a President in a civilian avatar, a PPP led coalition government, and the Pakistan army will remain in the barracks, which is only a tactical retreat. If history be any guide, the Pakistan army has always gone back to the barracks to refurbish its image by pretending to be neutral.

As far as Islamabad is concerned, the challenges will be

• To manage this uneasy troika of disparate forces;

• To strengthen democratic institutions and manage Islamic fundamentalism;

• To rejuvenate the economy;

• To stabilize the internal situation because the present situation in Pakistan is alarming. 60 per cent of its land area is out of Central control, the Pushtun revolt on both sides of the Pak-Afghan border is acute, and is spreading into the NWFP and Punjab

With respect to the implications of these developments for India, the question arises: Who will deal with issues critical to India? Who will deal with matters relating to Jammu and Kashmir? Will the President and army continue to pull the strings from behind the scene or would there be a greater civilian assertion? Going by recent history, both military and civilian leaders have been equally good and bad vis-Ã