Report of the IPCS Seminar held on 18 January 2008

Speaker: Prof. Efraim Inbar, Bar-Ilan University

The overall security environment of Israel comprises of three important concentric circles,

• The immediate neighborhood

• The Greater Middle East

• International environment

Immediate Neighbourhood

Egypt was the first country to establish peace with Israel in 1979. The peace process with Egypt was based on people to people interaction. Israel and Egypt also agreed to demilitarize the Sinai Peninsula, which is 200km between Israel and Egypt. The essence of strategic stability between the two countries was that they agreed to respect each other's sovereignty. This kind of relationship was buttressed by the Egyptian choice for a pro-American orientation. Egypt is the largest Arab nation with a great military potential, however after Egypt withdrew from the Arab military coalition, it lost the ability to attack Israel conventionally. Egypt also lost the ability to counter any attack by Israel; consequently the Arab military coalition against Israel was destabilized. Conditions since than have been stable and would remain to be so as long as the Egyptians continue with their pro-American orientation. Other Arab countries followed through only after the US won the Gulf War in 1991.

The relationship between Israel and Jordan is also limited to people to people interaction, mostly an agreement involving two elites. There has been an ongoing strategic relationship with the Hashemite rulers of Jordan, who along with Israel shared common enemies like Iraq under Saddam Hussein, Syria and most importantly the Palestine National Movement. These common sets of enemies have brought Jordon and Israel closer with over two decades of cooperation. A peaceful relationship with Jordon is vital because Jordan is a key element in the Eastern Front. Eastern Front is a series of countries from Syria to Saudi Arabia who have always been militarily active against Israel. The Eastern Front is more dangerous to Israel than the southern front because of its proximity to Israel's centers of population making it vulnerable to any military or aerial attack. Therefore, it is imperative for Israel and Jordan to maintain cordial relations.

Syria has been a weak and isolated country since 1991; it has aligned itself with the radical forces and also shares a very good relationship with Iran. It has not moved forward in establishing peace with Israel because of Israel's demand to open borders facilitating free movement of people and goods between the two countries. Syria has not confronted Israel directly but has engaged proxies via Lebanon and the Hezbollah. This is a very serious security problem for Israel and was witnessed in the 2006 war with Lebanon.

Palestine is Israel's immediate neighbour and after the end of Cold War there was an attempt both by Israel and Palestine to reach towards some kind of accommodation like the Oslo agreement in 1993, however it failed. The inability on the part of the Palestinians to seize the opportunity for establishing a state resulted in the failure of this agreement. The political entity in Palestine failed as a result of the militias securing enough clout to participate in the political process under Yasser Arafat. At present, Palestine is highly disintegrated with Hamas leading the Gaza Strip and the Palestinian National Authority (with Mahmoud Abbas of Fatah) continuing to administer the West Bank. The rest of the territory is under the security control on Israel. In 2002 Ariel Sharon ordered Israeli tanks into the West Bank, destroyed the terrorists' infrastructure and retreated. This enabled Israel to regain its superiority in intelligence and since then Israel has moved in and out of the West Bank on need basis only. The prospects of reaching an agreement with Palestine appear extremely bleak. The presence of Israeli military both inside and outside the territory has prevented Hamas from taking over the West Bank as well.

The Greater Middle East

In the Greater Middle East, Israel has faced mixed results. On the one hand, Israel has been successful in establishing good relations with Turkey since 1992. After the end of the Cold War, Turkey's quest for a strategic partner in the Middle East with a pro-American orientation enhanced relations between Turkey and Israel. Turkey borders with Iran, Iraq and Syria and the historical animosity between the Turks and Arabs have translated into better Turkey-Israel relations.

At the periphery is Iran which is aiming at achieving a nuclear capability. Iran poses a threat to Israel not only because of its nuclear programme but also for the fact that it is a very radical revisionist regime. Iran intends to spread radical Shiite Islam to other parts of the region and is especially anti-Israel with statements being issued by its President to destroy Israel. Israel is of the view that Iran will act accordingly and therefore considers such threats seriously.

Saudi Arabia is not as strong as it was politically and economically while Iraq has been defeated twice by the US, in 1991 and again in 2003. However, the situation in Iraq is deemed to worsen owing to a lack of proper exit policy by the US. The implications of an American exit from Iraq are held to be severe with seething radical violence turning it into another Afghanistan. Libya, on the other hand decided to abandon its weapons of mass destruction after the American invasion of Iraq in 2003

International Environment

Israel had greater acceptance in the international community after the end of Cold War. Many countries such as India, China, and Turkey renewed and established new diplomatic relations with Israel. The waning Arab influence in the region prompted these countries to extend their relations with Israel. Israel's advancement in technology besides its proximity with Washington augmented its influence in the global sphere. In particular, India has emerged as a key partner and Israel is also keen to develop key relations with Korea, Australia and the Pacific basin. Europe, however, continues to be difficult because of its increasing sensitivity towards Palestinians and is also inundated by Muslim immigrants. Consequently Israel and Europe have not been able to build very cordial relations.

Finally, Israel shares a very good relationship with the United States. Israel, as a result of such an intimate strategic partnership with the US, has been the beneficiary of American weaponry and money. Israel views the role of United States in the Middle East as important fulfilling many strategic functions in the region. The relations between the two were further strengthened after 9/11. Israel has been at the forefront of fighting terrorism and 9/11 changed the American perspectives on the threat of terror. Israel has an edge vis-Ã