'Leaps in the Dark' for India-Pakistan Relations

28 Dec, 2007    ·   2450

Sameer Suryakant Patil suggests ways for the two countries to put decades of hostility and mistrust behind them


One of the common refrains heard in the dynamics of the India-Pakistan relationship is the lack of trust or what is also referred to as the 'trust deficit' in bilateral dealings. An outcome of the inevitable security dilemma and the fear of cheating, this trust deficit impinges upon the resolution of the disputes which could otherwise have been resolved. If we follow the realist logic of international politics, there does not seem a way out. However, this article argues that taking a positive view of Pakistan, it is possible for India to explore the bridges of cooperation and get out of this quagmire.

Ken Booth and Nicholas Wheeler in their recent work, The Security Dilemma: Fear, Cooperation and Trust in World Politics (Palgrave: 2007) argue that the security dilemma can be mitigated and, in fact, even transcended by a notion of trust. What will create this trust and sustain it is what they call 'leaps in the dark.' Leaps in the dark are essentially those confidence-building moves which are highly symbolic, unilateral and designed to entice positive reciprocation from the adversary. However, what is unique about leaps in the dark is that even if reciprocation does not take place, the initiating country has to persist and come up with more symbolic, confidence-building measures. Even though the initiating country is not sure about the adversary's motives and intentions, it has to make a positive judgment of those motives and intentions, treading the path of risk-taking. According to Booth and Wheeler, the central problematique of international politics of cheating can be overcome if the concerned adversaries develop a strong sense of identification above that of individual self.

If we go by this concept of leaps in the dark, then for many in India, Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee's bus trip to Lahore in 1999 would indeed constitute a leap in the dark. Coming as it did after the overt nuclearization of South Asia in 1998, it was a unilateral step to some extent and also a highly symbolic one. By undertaking such a step, Vajpayee showed his willingness to tread the path that could have even backfired, and which eventually did in the form of Kargil. The public memory of this 'betrayal' clearly impinged upon and contributed still further to the 'trust deficit.' Yet, when both the countries resumed the peace process, they did not question the spirit of Lahore.

A look at the India-Pakistan relationship in recent months suggests that the bilateral peace process has reached a critical stage. Domestic events in Pakistan have clearly affected the pace of the process. To jumpstart the peace process, what is again needed are some leaps in the dark tempered with a sense of reality which would give the much needed forward thrust to the peace process. And India, being bigger of the two countries has to take the initiative in this regard.

So what can constitute such leaps in the dark? There are many that can be considered. For instance, from India's side it can begin with soft issues and a step-by-step approach, testing Pakistan's good faith. Releasing all Pakistani prisoners, mainly fishermen, from Indian jails by ascertaining their identity can be an initial step. Offering to do a joint management of Siachen as a bio-diversity park or even holding joint civilian treks in the region can be another such leap in the dark. Giving an important role for the extremist voices in Kashmir in the political arena would be yet another leap. Depending on Pakistan's response, India can turn its attention to hard issues where compromise has eluded both countries for years. Perhaps making Kashmir as a Nuclear Weapons Free Zone can be one such major step.

Many of the leaps in the dark suggested above may, on the face of it, appear impossible to achieve, or even ridiculous to some. Some strategic thinkers may term these leaps in the dark as a naive approach unmindful of the complex nature of the India-Pakistan bilateral relationship. However, nobody can deny the fact that if these steps are taken and if India remains steadfast in its approach of taking advantage of its superior military capabilities, then enormous pressure will be created upon Pakistan to respond to these positive Indian moves. What is required is immense pragmatism in New Delhi's political leadership to take that first step or the leap in the dark, just as Prime Minister Vajpayee did in 1999 at Lahore.

Note: The author wishes to acknowledge the important role played by the Sixth WISCOMP India-Pakistan Conflict Transformation Workshop from in shaping ideas for this article.

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