During the Shanghai Cooperation Organization's (SCO) summit to be held at Bishkek from 9-17 August, another significant event will also take place in the shadow of the Ural Mountains. A joint military exercise between the SCO (China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan) and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO- consisting of Russia, Belarus, Armenia and the aforementioned countries except China) will be conducted to signify the coming together of two overlapping security structures in Central Asia.

The current exercise is a follow up to the tri-service joint and combined Sino-Russian Exercise Peace Mission 2005 conducted on land, in air and at sea, southeast of the Shandong peninsula in China. The exercise was ostensibly designed for counter-terrorist and counter-separatist missions (read Taiwan contingency) but had obvious implications for the Central Asian Region (CAR) as it was witnessed by the SCO Defence Ministers also. The military exercises, then and now, clearly signify the larger strategic objective of both Russia and China to define the world in multipolar terms based on commonality of concerns vis-a-vis a unipolar world dominated by the US.

While the Peace Mission 2005 had only Chinese and Russian troops participating in the exercise with other SCO members as only observers, the current exercise is more inclusive with all the members of the SCO-CSTO combine contributing troops. This has several implications on the emerging strategic situation in the CAR. First, it signifies the cementing of strategic relationship between Russia and China in the CAR. It needs to be remembered that when the Regional Anti Terrorism Structure (RATS) was to be formed under the aegis of the SCO, Russia had suggested that it should be established at Bishkek (Kyrgyzstan) where a similar structure of the CSTO called the Collective Rapid Reaction Force already existed. However, due to China's intervention and objections of Uzbekistan, RATS was finally established at Uzbekistan, thereby indicating a heightened competition between the two organizations. Thus the present exercise is reflective of the coming together of the two structures and a greater degree of political maturity in dealing with security issues in the CAR.

Second, this security combine encompasses a vast region from the NATO in the West to China in the East, prompting comparisons with the Warsaw Pact of the Cold War-era. Many analysts have also speculated that it could turn into a NATO of the East. The Belarus President, Alexander Lukashenka, who took over the rotating chairmanship of the CSTO from Russia in 2006, had stated that the main goal of the security pact is to ensure the member states security "in the Western direction." Third, the CSTO is more of a defence pact with the members required to come to each others aid in certain contingencies while the China-led SCO is not a defence pact. Therefore, does it mean that China is veering away from its oft-stated policy of not joining any military alliance? Both China and Russia have been emphasizing that the SCO has no plans to mutate into a military bloc and they are also not interested in forming a rapid deployment force.

Further, both China and Russia remain concerned with NATO's expansion and the developing situation in Afghanistan. In a recent interaction with a Chinese think tank, the Chinese scholars emphasized that the NATO's presence in Afghanistan serves US interests; it enables the US to extend its influence in the CAR, and both Afghanistan and Central Asia are being used as bridges to expand NATO's and the US power in Asia-Pacific. Thus, both the Russian-led CSTO and the China-led SCO have been making overtures to Kabul in one form or the other. While the CSTO has offered military aid to Kabul and has helped train Afghan drug enforcement officers, the SCO's summit meetings have been regularly attended by President Karzai as a guest.

However, the Chinese remain more circumspect when asked to respond to whether they or the SCO would be willing to contribute to the security in Afghanistan, especially if the NATO and the US troops were to leave Afghanistan. From the Chinese point of view, the Americans are unlikely to leave Afghanistan because of the immense geo-strategic significance of Afghanistan and the CAR.

On the other hand, Russia remains concerned with the US positioning elements of ballistic missile defence in Poland and the Czech Republic, the non-ratification of the Conventional Forces in Europe Treaty by NATO members and Kosovo being granted the status of an independent nation. With rising oil revenues and improved economy, Russia under Putin has become more assertive and Peace Mission 2007 can be seen as part of Russia's policy of strategic reassertion.

The military exercise is also being held in the backdrop of renewed and vigorous energy games taking place in the CAR. While Russia and China seem to be emerging as winners in the energy race, the US and the European Union are looking for new strategies to win the gas and oil wars. Russia has been attempting to involve India and other observers in military exercises but has not met with success so far.