Report of the Seminar held at the IPCS on 6 July 2007

Speaker: Brig (Retd.) Arun Sahgal, Deputy Director Research and Head Centre for Strategic Studies and Simulation, The United Service Institution of India (USI)

Various factors can help predict the future of Pakistan. The country is experiencing significant evolution in its geostrategic environment and abrupt changes due to specific triggering events such as the attack on the Lal Masjid. Such changes and triggers couple to create certain driving factors of behaviour whose interplay may highlight crucial scenarios for future developments within Pakistan.

Important driving factors for the future include Indo-Pak trade, democracy in Pakistan, energy, the Afghan situation, the nuclear balance, China, the US posture and so on. The five distinct scenarios that may emerge from these factors may be explained as:-

1) New Dawn, New Challenges
2) Lid on the Boiling Point
3) Reaping the Harvest
4) Supping with the Devil
5) Imminent Chaos

Currently, Pakistan is a regressing state, in which large areas of the state are not under the government's direct control, and the ISI serves as the glue between the formal state, Islamic groups, and the military. This is the first scenario - New Dawn, New Challenges - but the contours of scenario two are steadily becoming more visible. Indian interests lie in keeping Pakistan in either its current state or in the third scenario - Reaping the Harvest - in which democracy emerges in Pakistan. Scenario two would be very difficult to manage and may lead to a failure of the state of Pakistan.

The most significant scenario driving factors for the near future, that is 2012, include US posture and policy, Pakistan's economy, Afghanistan, and China. Musharraf is most likely to return to power in 2007-08 bolstered by the ISI. The management of the ISI is crucial to Musharraf's success and therefore strengthens its position within the state. The ISI advises Musharraf to refrain from eliminating jihadis and political Islam and thus the question arises of whether or not it really is possible for Pakistan to become a modern state. However, regardless of any scenario that emerges in this period, the Pakistani state will definitely remain unstable for the next 4-5 years.

DISCUSSION

Role of the ISI and a Buffer in Indo-Pak Relationship

From India, there is a very limited ability to directly tackle the activities of the ISI. However, India can provide an impetus to those forces willing to foster change in Pakistan and shape an economic and cultural buffer by employing a containment and engagement strategy, through which emerges the need to develop and utilize levers such as people-to-people contacts and military cooperation with the US.

Kashmir not a Driver

The Kashmir issue has been examined very closely to assess whether or not the issue could have an impact on the future of Pakistan. Ultimately, it was concluded that Kashmir is an issue kept alive by Pakistan as a stress-reduction strategy to deflect attention from other more pressing issues within the country. It is a very important driver, but Pakistan cannot tackle this issue until much farther in the future and thus it is not a very strong scenario driving factor.

Islamism in Pakistan

Pakistan is not essentially a fundamentalist state - it has not officially allowed the amalgamation of Islam and the state. Notwithstanding this, social Islam has been on the rise in Pakistan because a large proportion of the population is economically deprived and the madrassas are accommodating these people for whom Islam is increasingly becoming a social crutch.

Lal Masjid Issue

The attack on the Lal Masjid was basically triggered by the seven Chinese kidnapped in Islamabad. The kidnapping constituted a direct unfriendly act towards a close ally and this posed a major threat to Sino-Pak relations. This issue, coupled with significant US pressure, forced Musharraf to take a stand.

Concluding Remarks

Increasing fundamentalism is a major issue in Pakistan. After 9/11, Musharraf made an effort to change many of the state's earlier policies; however, he never really tried to effectively counter Islamism or fundamentalism. In the case of the attack on the Lal Masjid, international pressure following the Chinese kidnappings forced Musharraf to take action. Islamization cannot happen and must be put to a stop in Pakistan, else, it will lead to the further weakening of the state.