With ULFA-orchestrated violence rocking the state of Assam and the death toll of innocent civilians going up, one is forced to wonder, what is it that ULFA seeks to achieve with the death of innocents? Even putting aside the question of the viability of ULFA's demand for 'Swadhin Asom,' it needs to be asked, for whom is it that ULFA seeks independence by spilling the blood of its 'own' people? Is it a manifestation of the growing frustration in the outfit following a massive erosion of its public support base? Or, is it a desperate attempt to force the centre to discuss the issue of sovereignty for the state of Assam? Or does ULFA, as the police claim, aim to create a fear psychosis among the people, most particularly among the business community so as to facilitate its extortion agenda?

The support base that ULFA once enjoyed amongst the Assamese people has eroded massively in the recent past. In a first ever public poll conducted by a local NGO, the Assam Public Works, it was shown that almost 95 per cent of the people in Assam did not identify with ULFA's demand for a 'sovereign' Assam. Against this backdrop, the possibility of desperate ULFA attempts at making its presence felt cannot be ruled out. However, if anything, the recent series of blasts triggered off by ULFA has served only to further strengthen the existing anti-ULFA sentiments with people taking to the streets to protest against the indiscriminate massacre.

The attempts to initiate a peace dialogue between ULFA and the centre have also proved utterly unfruitful. While the ULFA refuses to come to the negotiating table if the issue of 'sovereignty' does not feature in it, the centre is firm on its stand that there would be no dialogue on sovereignty. ULFA may be engaging in the recent spate of violence to make the centre bend; however, in the process what little hope there is for peace in the region is also getting vitiated.

Moreover, since the target of the Guwahati city blasts this May seems to be the minority Hindi-speaking business class dominated areas; it is argued by the police that it is an attempt by ULFA to create fear amongst that community in order to step up its extortion scheme. Further, since the ULFA massacre of Hindi-speaking people in January this year, a large number of Hindi-speaking people have left the state. There have been concerns voiced in the state that with these minorities leaving the state, there would be a labour shortage in Assam that would be filled by illegal Bangladeshi immigrants. Disturbingly, there are reports of growing ISI presence in the region with the American think tank Stratfor claiming that the Pakistan's ISI along with the Bangladesh Intelligence Agency seek to "Islamise" the militancy in Northeast India. The think tank further claims that it is the ISI that had asked ULFA to refuse to negotiate with India. This leads one to question whether ULFA's current outburst is part of a larger game plan orchestrated and aided by the ISI.

There are also accusations of failure on part of the government intelligence in preventing the series of attacks by ULFA. The month of May saw as many as seven ULFA-organized blasts in the state. It is argued that since ULFA is using busy localities as its target, particularly in Guwahati city, the police find itself in extremely difficult to detect the bombs. Further, in the aftermath of the recent blasts , the Union Minister of State for Home, Sriprakash Jaiswal, had claimed that ULFA militants are being "nourished" in Bangladesh with Dhaka seen to be "reluctant and weak" in aiding India in taking action against the outfit. Stratfor, in fact, also claims that Bangladesh is a safe haven for northeast militants and that the ULFA is pumping in substantial money for the upcoming Bangladesh elections. With the porous borders with Bangladesh and Myanmar affording easy movement to the various militant outfits, tackling them in the northeast seems to be a formidable challenge for the security forces.

Whatever may be the driving force behind it, if the ongoing bloodshed in the state is allowed to continue, it may completely paralyse the normal life of the ordinary people. The road ahead appears to be full of uncertainty and a breakthrough in the current deadlock remains a far cry. Urgent steps need to be taken to counter the current uncertainty and fear that have taken root in the hearts of the people. While on one hand there is a need to take all possible measures to put a stop to the ongoing carnage, efforts need also to be undertaken to provide a well-crafted platform so as to channelize the growing resentment amongst various sections of society against this bloodbath into one strong movement that might force ULFA into reversing its strategy.