The present political situation in Pakistan is explosive. Public protests on the dismissal of Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry, the Chief Justice of the country's Supreme Court acquired serious proportions leading to firings on and deaths of protestors. Chaudhry's journey from Islamabad to the High Court Bar Council in Lahore, on 5 May, has been likened to Mao's Long March which is very significant. It was watched on TV by citizens and the PA system blared incendiary songs and slogans like, "Jag utha hai sara watan." Musharraf's posters were burnt. Will the President withstand this storm? He is reported to have stated, "I cannot be defeated. The Chief Justice will have to say Good Bye."

The Ifthikhar Mohammad episode, significant as it is, has only brought to the fore the significant and perpetual problem that has faced military rule in Pakistan. At a recent seminar in Delhi, a foreign scholar opined that though the President is alienated from his people, he is expected to be re-elected by the present legislature before it is dissolved ahead of the 2008 parliamentary elections. Military rule will continue even if some cosmetic arrangement could be arrived at to secure the return of Benazir Bhutto. It might be recalled that after the death of General Zia-ul-Haq in an air crash, elections were held and political parties formed governments under Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif. However, it was the Army that ran the show from behind the scene: it believes that the country's interests and its future is best guided by the Army.

What impact will the Chaudhry crisis have on the political future of Pakistan? Chaudhry claims, "The idea of Dictatorship is over." It is reported that every sentence of his speech was accompanied by thunderous applause. He appealed for calm: wise advice indeed. Belligerence will be catastrophic. Benazir says that Army rule is not acceptable, and that her party is looking for a transition to democracy.

The Army feels that the politicians had botched things up initially and, on 7 October 1958, the Governor General, Iskandar Mirza had to declare martial law with General Ayub Khan, the Commander-in-Chief (C-in-C), as the Chief Martial Law Administrator, Ayub replaced Mirza as President 20 days later on 27 October 1958 and introduced 'Basic Democracy.' However, political unrest grew during the latter part of his ten-year rule. Opposition parties met in Dacca in January 1969 and demanded full democracy through direct elections based on adult franchise. Ayub writes in his diaries that at a Cabined meeting on 23 February 1969, he announced that he would not contest the next elections in the hope that this would cool the temperature and enable general elections to be held. However, the C-in-C, General Yahya Khan, was of the view that the time had come for the imposition of martial law. On 24 March 1969, Ayub wrote to Yahya, "I am left with no option but to step aside and leave it to the Defence Forces of Pakistan, which today represent the only effective and legal instrument to take full control of the affairs of the country."

Musharraf, by contrast, is determined to stay in power - he is not opting out. But, he needs to accommodate other political interests and evolve a durable system, which can certainly not be reconciled with Army rule. In all fairness, it must be conceded that he is not so naive as to think this can be resisted. At the present juncture he has a prominent role, but he must allow all major political parties, including their exiled leaderships, to acquire suitable roles. His declaration that he will not permit their return before the elections needs to be reconsidered. It would be advisable for to him work out some ground rules for their return. His plan to seek re-election by the sitting assemblies between 15 September and 15 October 2007 would also have to be allowed to go through, but his continuing to hold the post of the Army Chief may not be advisable in view of the ultimate desired objective of doing away with Army rule. Responding to 'Aaj' TV on 18 May, he said that constitutionally, he was entitled to hold the dual offices of the President and Army Chief till the end of this year. For the political evolution of Pakistan it is essential, however, that he shed his uniform after his 15 September-15 October 2007 election by the currently sitting assemblies.