Central Asia in Indo-Russian Geopolitical Calculations

13 Apr, 2007    ·   2263

Angira Sen Sarma examines the possibilities of Indo-Russo cooperation in Central Asia, with special emphasis on energy and anti-terrorism


Since their independence in 1991, the five Central Asian Republics of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan have become geo-strategically and geo-economically significant. The demise of the Soviet Union created a power vacuum that has sparked fierce competition between various players.

Both India and Russia have their special interests in the region. Russia's geographical contiguity and long relationship with the region makes it a strong presence in the region. Though India does not share a common border with the Central Asian countries, its relationship with the region dates back into antiquity. India is keen to establish its presence in these republics. The energy sector is an obvious area for cooperation. 34 percent of the total energy consumption in India is provided by oil. India ranks sixth in terms of energy demand in the world, and depends on imports. In 2005 its oil imports reached 1.7million barrels per day. World Energy Outlook has reported that by 2020 India's dependence on oil imports will grow to 91.6%. Most of India's energy requirements are met by West Asia. Central Asia can provide India with a viable alternative. In recent times natural gas has become an important source of energy. The use of natural gas has increased in India from 0.63 trillion cubic feet per year in 1995 to nearly 0.96 trillion cubic feet in 2003. It is projected to reach 1.4 trillion cubic feet in 2010 and 1.8 trillion cubic feet in 2015.

Taking into account the presence of several players in the region, India would prefer to cooperate with regional and extra regional players to establish its presence in the region. Russia being an old friend of India can cooperate in the region, which would be beneficial in the energy sector.

Transportation of the regions' oil and gas is the major issue. One of the main obstacles to developing vibrant trade relations between India and the Central Asian Republics is the lack of transit routes. India can cooperate with Russia to access Central Asian oil and gas. Among several options available, the North-South Corridor provides the best alternative that will link Russia, India, Iran and the Central Asian Republics by road, rail and sea. It would cut shipment time from India to Europe by 10-15 days and transportation costs by about 30%.This route would help India gain access to the CIS markets. The major advantage for India' participation in the North-South route is that it would bypass Pakistan and Afghanistan. Russia has long been supporting this route to serve its geopolitical interests. The recent initiatives by the International Union of Railways (UIC) to develop a 'multi modal corridor' between Russia and India via Iran will enable India to gain direct access to Central Asia and Europe, bypassing Pakistan. This would give a fillip to the North-South Corridor project.

Another area of cooperation between Russia and India in Central Asia is anti-terrorism. A Joint Indo-Russian statement after the November 2001 summit talks agreed that "regional cooperation can play an important role in the stabilization of the situation in the Central Asia region" Stability is crucial for both Russia and India to prevent the spillover effects of problems like drug trafficking, religious extremism etc. In the 2003 India-Russia Joint Working Group on Global Challenges issued a Declaration on "Global Challenges and Threats to World Security and Stability". It mentioned that "security" and "stability" in Central Asia was of "vital interest" for both countries and emphasized "evolving a comprehensive joint approach to foster sustainable and reliable energy future in mutual interest."

The inclusion of India as an observer in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization highlights the scope for greater coordination between Russia and India in Central Asia. Moreover, the presence of other countries like Russia, China, India, Iran, Pakistan, Mongolia, along with the five Central Asian Republics, provides a common platform for cooperation and to prevent the dominance of any one power over the region.

The Indo-Russian time tested friendship could be fruitfully used to cooperate in the Central Asian Republics to counterbalance the growing influence of China and the US. Today the reality in Central Asia is that cooperation between various regional players is crucial for peace and stability, which is vital for exploiting the rich resources of the region. Thus Central Asia assumes special significance for Indo-Russian cooperation. Russia's long association and India having no conflict with the countries in the region provides suitable grounds for cooperating in the region.

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