The Southeast Asian and Southwest Pacific Studies Division in the Centre for South, Central, South East Asian and South West Pacific Studies, (CSCSEASWPS) School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University organized a roundtable on India-Vietnam relations as a prelude to the visit of the Vietnamese Prime Minister, Nguyen Tan Dung to India in July.

Prof. Mahendra P Lama
Chairperson, CSCSEASWPS

Though quiet, India-Vietnam relationship has actually been very robust and is a key component of India's Look East policy. India-Vietnam relations assumes greater significance when put in its proper context. The first context is provided by a new phenomenon of a resurgent Asia manifested in the emergence of three economic power centres - East Asia with China, Japan and South Korea, ASEAN economies and an India-led South Asia.

The second context is. the rise of regionalism which is manifests itself at three levels. Asia has not only witnessed the rise of regionalism but also their further expansion such as the formation of an East Asian Community, SAARC and ASEAN. Against this backdrop there are other sub-regional groupings coming up such as, the idea of linking the two Punjabs - Indian Punjab and Pakistani Punjab, South Asia Growth Triangle, and Kunming Initiatives. Other sub-regional groupings are evident in the ASEAN countries such as Greater Mekong Basin Growth Quadrangle. Interestingly, the sub-regional groupings do not reflect nation-to-nation initiatives; rather they represent cooperative initiatives of inter-provincial nature. Such initiatives have multiple advantages in terms of non-necessity of formulating national laws, easy mechanism of harnessing local resources and smoother coordination given common cultural settings. The third level is people-led cooperation. Both governments have expressed their desire to further deepen their people-to-people contact, for example, through tourism.

The changing equations in East Asia provide both opportunities and challenges for India-Vietnam relations. Both countries started reform process in the last ten-fifteen year and both have registered around 8 per cent growth. Both countries have strong service sector industries but they need to be harnessed. India has been a traditional donor and seventh largest investor in Vietnam. Most importantly, the two-way trade has increased considerably in the last five years, reaching more than US$ 1 billion. The foreign direct investment in Vietnam has been much higher than in India.

Given this background of global integration and domestic economic growth, the first challenge facing India-Vietnam relations is how to cope with the new emerging global economic regimes. Vietnam has expressed its willingness for India's role in capacity building of Vietnamese negotiators in the WTO negotiations, which are both intricate and complex. The two countries can cooperate with each other in the foreign direct investment sector. The trade between India and Vietnam (US $ 1.2 billion) is much more than that with its immediate neighbourhood. More than investment, both India and Vietnam can work closely on tourism with a common cultural heritage.

Dr. Manmohini Kaul
Associate Professor, CSCSEASWPS

One of the key factors in India's relationship with Southeast Asia and East Asia is the expansion of ASEAN of which Vietnam is a member. Regional cooperation with varying dimensions has occurred with greater implications for political stability and economic growth in East Asia. The financial crisis during the late 1990s led to the Chiang Mai Initiative in May 2002, facilitating the formation of an ASEAN+3 mechanism. This led to a major change in the perspective as enemies of the past became friends. Such an initiative was also based on the growing understanding that future shocks could be dealt with only through greater integration and cooperation. The China factor is the most crucial factor in changing geopolitical equations in East Asia. China has become India's second largest trading partner. Vietnam with large-scale investment from China would not, in all probability, antagonise its northern neighbour.

East Asia has witnessed growing desire for a common regional identity which is based on the motivation for regional stability and stronger community. Regionalism is being perceived as a more viable way for self-reliance. A new trend can be identified in the ASEAN region, i.e. regional cooperation with a regional approach. A new description of geographic neighbourhood where boundaries are getting blurred with the coming together of South Asia, Southeast Asia and East Asia.

However, various challenges lie ahead such as an unstable energy scenario, the problem of Myanmar, and the consensual decision making method of ASEAN. There is a need of constant innovation. New conceptualisation of security has led to new threat perceptions. Different ASEAN member countries have exhibited diverse economic capacity, which can lead to complex patterns of cooperation and power equations among major powers.

Against this backdrop, India needs to adopt a consultative approach with multi-dimensional focus on institutional building and the key lies in improved connectivity of people and economic activities. Any kind of integration with East Asia has to be through Southeast Asia. The flying geese model and the hub and spoke model are no longer valid and they are valid only when multilateral organisations are not in operation.

Dr. Shankari Sundararaman
Associate Professor, CSCSEASWPS

The real question today is how to fit India and Vietnam relations in a changing power structure of a resurgent Asia. Several permutations and combinations may emerge, which will further test the limits of the matrix of the new structure. Is the evolving structure concrete and viable or vague and ambiguous? Is the new matrix still conceptually ill defined? If ill-defined then the structure is fraught with uncertainty. It is not clear how the regional powers will interact with each other. In the light of these developments various challenges can be outlined.

The first challenge is whether conflicts and tensions are going to drive the cooperation and competition matrix in the new evolving structure. In that sense, normative role of ASEAN is going to be challenged due to growing competition which can affect ASEAN's role as a major regional order or as manager. It is also likely that regional states will start taking sides in the face of major power competition, as has already been referred to as "Strategic Hedging."

The nature of alignment among major power is going to affect the role of regional players within ASEAN. The existing diversity within the region both in terms of economic and security interests is going to expand further, which would further widen the economic gap between old and new members. What is more important is the manner through which the economies will view China and India.

The third important challenge facing ASEAN is the rise of China or the rise of a peaceful China. The whole debate hinges on whether the rising China is a peaceful China or a revisionist China, thus bringing into focus the capacity of China as a status-quo power. The Sino-US conflict in Taiwan Strait and Sino-Japanese rivalry would involve the ASEAN region. >From an Indian perspective, ASEAN's cooperation with China and India should be seen within a cooperative framework and it is important for India to further expand its ties with ASEAN without taking China factor as the contingency issues.

Challenges Facing ASEAN

• Tendency towards greater economic nationalism or a resurgent approach towards economic national interest within ASEAN, such as problems between Indonesia and Singapore over the sale of sand.

• The challenge of identifying regionalism with the process of globalisation.

• Involvement of players from the Pacific, likely culminating into a tussle between pan-Asianism versus pan-Pacifism

• Emerging dichotomy between an assertive ASEAN and a normative ASEAN

• Will ASEAN be on the driving seat?

Mr. Ton Sinh Thanh
Minister Counsellor, Embassy of Vietnam

Changing East Asia

There are various positive developments in the East Asia. The political and security relations in Southeast Asia have improved. ASEAN is no longer a divided region. The idea of Asian identity is being practically applied by ASEAN and expanded further to East Asia. The changing situation will have greater impact on India-Vietnam relations.

The relationship between India and Vietnam is based on the factors of the past such as issues of non-alignment, anti-colonialism and friendship. But the situation has changed and now the focus is more on economic aspects. China has improved relations with India. Therefore, we should have new formulations for greater partnership. Now the focus should be more on how to develop each other economically. Vietnam has opened up some strategic areas like energy and India has done the same.
India-Vietnam Relations

Historical linkages facilitate bilateral relations and this can be applied in the context of India-Vietnam relations. However, friendship and political relationship can not be taken for granted if substantial economic relationship is not improved. The economic relationship is lagging far behind. Vietnam's total trade volume is around US $ 90 billion whereas the bilateral relationship is only one billion dollar. In terms of FDI, China now has more than 400 projects in Vietnam with a total capital of one billion. Vietnam is engaged in more than one thousand projects in China, whereas, India has only 12 projects. The tourism sector has also suffered over the years. Therefore, there is a greater necessity of further revising and improving the bilateral economic relationship.

Prof. Ganganath Jha
Associate Professor, CSCSEASWPS

India attaches prime importance to Vietnam. After 1975, India has given most favoured nation status to Vietnam and Vietnam has reciprocated accordingly. Bilateral relations have assumed multidimensional relationship through interaction within ASEAN.

Despite these interactions, the trade-volume between the two countries has not gone beyond one percent. The bilateral relationship has stagnated and a new vision and a new agenda are required. The scope is abundant in enhancing bilateral relations such as science, technology, trade and investment, human resources, and services sector, and these scopes have not been tapped. India has been investing in hotel industries along with other countries. Several construction projects are going on such as construction of railway lines, highway projects, and corridor projects. However, much of the projects have remained on paper. On the other hand, countries like US have made strong entry in the country. That shows problems in the planning and these problems need to be resolved.

Both India and Vietnam are progressing fast and both want to be both the agents and recipients of globalisation process. Though the level of cooperation is there but the volume is extremely marginal. There is a need to cooperate either through ASEAN or beyond ASEAN.

Dr. Subhash Kapila

India and Vietnam share a legacy of good relationship and mutually converging interests. India-Vietnam defence relationship was first commenced in 1994 by the then prime minister P.V. Narasimha Rao and it was further streamlined in 2000 by the then Defence Minister, George Fernandes, when 15-point agenda was worked out. In 2003, an important agreement was signed titled a "Joint Declaration on Framework for cooperation in 21st century."

Geo-strategically, India and Vietnam occupy important positions in their respective regions and in the case of safety of sea lanes of communication. The bilateral relationship has improved over the years but there still exists a trust-deficit in bilateral relations. The imperative for strong India-Vietnam relations is strategic partnership. Among Southeast Asian nations, Vietnam has the longest experience of dealing with China. Given its rivalry with China, Vietnam can not become China's strategic ally. In fact, Vietnam presents the biggest obstacle in China's southward expansion.

India's imperatives for strategic partnership with Vietnam lie in all fields. In fact, the stark reality is that the cold war, at least in this part of the world has not been over and the situation seems to have moved from bad to worse. This strategic partnership is neither in corporate sense nor in terms of defence pact but more on convergence of views on strategic issues. It includes strong military cooperation and strategic interests.

In terms of potential, India is an aspiring global power and Vietnam has all the potential of a regional power and, together, may contribute to peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific.