Map - FATA

For the first time since the war on terrorism, one hears a different story in South Waziristan: the local tribesmen are fighting the foreigners! What is happening? What happened to the local 'hospitality' argument for supporting the foreign militants as guests? Why have the locals turned against the Taliban? Is there a split inside the Taliban-al Qaeda combine? Have the local tribesmen been won over by the government?

First, the government of Pakistan is trying to sell the news in South Waziristan with a minor interpretation, for larger political reasons. According to media reports, the fight is between a section of the local Waziri tribesmen and Uzbek fighters under the leadership of Tahir Yuldashev settled in South Waziristan. Clearly, this is not a fight between local tribesmen and al Qaeda and not all foreigners, but only a section who fought/fight in Afghanistan along with the al Qaeda and Taliban are involved.

Second, the current fighting between the two groups is limited to South Waziristan. Inside, South Waziristan, there are two major tribal groups - Wazirs and Mahsuds. The fighting is taking place in and around three Wazir villages west of Wana (the headquarters of South Waziristan) - Azam Warsak, Sheen Warsak and Kaloosha. In fact, it was Nek Mohammad, a local commander who was killed in 2004, who brought in the Uzbeks and made them settle here. The local population, mainly belonging to the Yargul Khel, a sub clan of Wazirs, initially was happy with these Uzbek fighters; some of them even settled along with their families. Their economic conditions improved, thanks to the cash provided by the Uzbeks, at times even in dollars. The local population earned considerably in terms of renting accommodation and providing day to day provisions. According to a report, during Pakistan's military operations in 2004-05, a chicken cost US$20 to US$30. This is why a section of the Wazir tribe, support the presence of Uzbeks, in the current fighting against other Wazir tribesmen led by Maulvi Nazir.

Third, the divide between the local tribesmen and the foreigners is limited in another sense as well. As mentioned above, only a section of local Wazir tribesmen in South Waziristan are against the presence of foreigners, that too only the Uzbek fighters belonging to Tahir Yuldashev and not the other foreign militants, especially the Arabs belonging to al Qaeda. Similarly, other Uzbek fighters settled in North Waziristan, refused to come to help their fellow Uzbek fighters in South Waziristan. Not all Uzbek fighters belong to Tahir's Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan. Also, the Mahsuds and other local tribesmen in North Waziristan apparently do not have any problem with the presence of foreigners. Clearly, the current fighting between the local tribesmen and the foreigners is limited in terms of both geographical area and the groups fighting.

Why has a section of the locals turned against Tahir's Uzbek fighters? Though there are no clear answers, based on news reports one could reach two conclusions. First, the local tribesmen led by Maulvi Nazir are upset with the Uzbek fighters, as the latter were increasingly engaged in target killing of Wazir tribal elders. Many locals have been targeted for either being pro-government or American spies. Besides, Uzbek fighters were also involved in kidnapping, ransom, and looting local banks. Hence, the primary reason given has been that of law and order. The involvement of Uzbeks in local administration is not acceptable to Maulvi Nazir, who has been appointed as the Amir of South Waziristan by a Taliban Shura, that includes Siraj Haqqani, son of Jalaludin Haqqani, a veteran mujahideen, and an important leader of the Taliban and also Baituallah Mahsud. Maulvi Nazir wants to impose his writ and make it clear he is the ruler of the area. A second reason for the sudden hostility is the killing of an Arab fighter belonging to the al Qaeda, allegedly by the Uzbeks. Nazir is apparently was angry at this killing and had vowed to remove the Uzbeks from the region. This hints at a divide between al Qaeda-Taliban and Yuldashev's IMU. There have also been rumors that Yuldashev has been bribed by foreign elements, so that his troops are no more involved in the fighting in Afghanistan. This divide between Yuldashev and al Qaeda is a larger question that needs to be probed further and the current fighting may actually be a fallout of this new development.

The above assessment has the following implications. One, while Uzbek fighters are no more welcome in South Waziristan, there is no animosity towards other foreigners, including Arabs and Chechens. Two, it is unlikely that this fight against foreigners will spread to rest of the FATA; it will be limited only to South Waziristan. Three, with the Uzbeks and the Maulvi Nazir group trying to impose their writ over this region, the government has become a mere spectator in this entire episode. As of now, the government is helping the local population to evict the foreigners. This eviction is however, unlikely to result in Maulvi Nazir allowing the Pakistani state to impose its writ. Therein lays the real threat to Pakistan.