The previous article on this subject discussed the compulsions of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in adopting demilitarization as an immediate slogan. The pressure on PDP manifested in it boycotting the second cabinet meeting called by the Congress government to discuss various issues, including the submissions of the Bloeria Committee on demarcation of new districts. On the other hand, the Chief Minister and the Prime Minister have categorically rejected the PDP demand. Will this reluctance end up in destabilizing the government, giving rise to the possibility of dissolution of the Assembly and an early election?

The withdrawal of PDP's support to the government depends on other issues. First, the position of the National Conference (NC), the single largest party in the State legislative assembly, will greatly influence PDP's final decision. As of today, the NC has been clear on its position on demilitarization: while it does not openly support the PDP's demand, it hasn't opposed it completely either. However, the NC has stated clearly that the PDP's demand is a political machination, claiming that Mufti never talked about either demilitarization or withdrawal of Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFPSA) during his tenure as the Chief Minister. Both Farooq Abdullah and Omar Abdullah have linked the demilitarization to actual situation on the ground, which is closer to the political position of the Congress.

The NC has also made it clear that in the event of PDP withdrawing its support, it will not back the Congress government. Besides, the Abdullahs have given a call to its cadres to prepare for the election. Clearly, if the PDP withdraws its support, the government will collapse leading to the dissolution of the Assembly. In this situation, the PDP is unlikely to gain much. Facing the election without any support from the government side will not brighten the PDP's chances either.

Secondly, PDP's decision to withdraw also depends on how much support it will gather at the ground level. Its expectations initially were to pressurize the government to yield to its demands, so that the same could be projected as a success during the next election campaign. By rejecting the demand, it appears that the Congress has called off the PDP bluff. Now, everything depends on the PDP's understanding of the ground situation.

At the ground level, the support for the PDP's demand is highly divided. In Jammu, there is no support for the PDP; hence if the government collapses, it will only have negative implications for PDP's prospects in Jammu. Even otherwise, it is unlikely, that the PDP will gain even a single seat in the Jammu region. In Ladakh, demilitarization is totally a non-issue. Clearly, in this case, every thing depends on what the Kashmiris in the Valley want.

Inside the Kashmir Valley, there is an overwhelming support for demilitarization. The recent upsurge of the human rights issue, especially after the unearthing of a series of targeted and encounter killings, has only increased the demand for withdrawal of troops from Kashmir Valley. The separatists, led by the Hurriyat, have been demanding the same for long. Many of the mainstream political leaders in the Valley also support the same and link it to the trampling of basic rights of the people. Some militant groups, and their under and over ground supporters, are using the recent sensational unearthing of human rights violations to further pressurize the government. For them, this is part of their larger campaign to question the writ of the State; this has become more pronounced since they took up the case of the sex scandal to mobilize popular angst against the State..

It is unlikely, however, that the demands of the above sections for demilitarization will lead them to support the PDP. It appears that there are two streams of demands for demilitarization, one from the PDP, mostly on political grounds, and the second from various other groups, on various other issues. The PDP seems to understand this dilemma at last; perhaps this may result in the PDP ultimately not withdrawing the support to the Congress government in the State. However, the party may also look for a face saving exit out of the crisis that it has created.

The recent announcement on the withdrawal of the Border Security Force (BSF), and its replacement by the Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF), seems to be an effort from New Delhi to provide this space. Mehbooba Mufti called this as a vindication of her party's stand and emphasized that the Union government should also work towards the revocation of AFSPA. It appears that the crisis is over, at least for now.