Is Pervez Musharraf on his way out? Though none can predict his fate with certitude, he is facing the most serious crisis and there are signs suggesting his likely departure. If he finally departs, or just manages to survive, what are the implications for India?

The killing of Akbar Khan Bugti by the Pakistan army "sent a clear message to Musharraf that his era is over", said the Khan of Kalat-Mir Suleman Dawood, a descendant of Balochistan's earlier rulers. Bugti's killing was reportedly against the wishes of the President. Some forces within the Pakistan army, which do not wish the continuation of the Musharraf regime, had effected the killing to create trouble and embarrass him. Rumours of a possible coup against him have been going around for some time. An indication, apart from Bugti's killing against the General's dictates, indicative of broad disaffection with Musharraf's rule, is a letter written on July 18 by a group of retired military and government officials, calling for the military's disengagement from political power and asking Musharraf to either resign as the Chief of the Army Staff or as the President.

An opinion poll conducted by the International Republic Institute of the US which was published in the Dawn, found that 48 percent were of the opinion that Musharraf should not hold two offices simultaneously. What was more interesting in the poll was a desire for the return of democracy in the Pakistani populace with two-thirds voting for the return of the exiled Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif to the country and taking part in the coming elections.

Boxed in by these developments, Musharraf has two options to survive: either co-opt the Right, which will compromise his continuing to support the war on terror, or extract support from the moderates that will ask him to relinquish one of his posts and let democracy be re-ushered into the country.

It seems Musharraf has decided to lean towards the Right. As a first step to please them, Pakistan has signed a peace deal with the Taliban. According to this peace deal, signed by Dr Fakr-I-Alam on behalf of Pakistan, and seven militants on behalf of the Taliban Shura (Advisory Council), Pakistani forces and local mujahideen and ulemas will stop attacking each other. It seems Pakistan has also promised not to arrest Osama bin Laden. As reported by ABC News, "Pakistani officials told ABC News that bin Laden would be spared from being arrested if the dreaded terrorist decides to lead a peaceful life."

The troops freed as a result of the Pakistan-Taliban agreement may be used for two purposes: Either to contain the unrest in the Balochistan or undertake a Kargil type adventure against India. The latter strategy is in the pipeline, if media reports are believed. According to India's military intelligence, the movement of 19 division and some brigades is threatening Indian positions in Gulmarg and Poonch. A Kargil-type adventure is not a certainty, but is a possibility. India cannot ignore the repercussions of the troop movements and the Pakistan-Taliban peace deal.

Musharraf is finding the going very difficult. He needs to do something urgently to reassert his hold on power. Nothing would suit him more than a skirmish with India. He is not a man given to irrational decision, however, given a chance he would like to tread a safer route to ensure his survival. The proposed meeting between him and the Indian Prime Minister on the sidelines of the NAM summit in Havana is a chance for India and Pakistan to reach some kind of deal on Kashmir. In case nothing comes of the proposed meeting between the two leaders, adventurism could become the main escape route suggesting itself to the General.

For India, this is the time to strive for a democratic Pakistan. For too long India has debated the trade-offs between dealing with a dictator-a one point reference like the King of Nepal and democratically elected rulers. Experience suggests that a democratic neighbourhood is better suited to India's long term interests.

The Alliance for Restoration of Democracy, formed by political rivals Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif, has started gaining ground in the Pakistan. Its high time India attempted to strengthen democracy in Pakistan, notwithstanding its principle of non-interference in the internal affairs of its neighbours.

To strengthen democracy in Pakistan, India might take a clue from American democracy promotion efforts. America has allocated specific funds to promote democracy in Iran by training opposition leaders and trying to bring a regime change there. It has been interpreted as interference in internal affairs of Iran by some, but promoting democracy has more or less come to be accepted as a universal norm in the liberal world. Besides, India need to raise the issue of democracy and the coming elections in Pakistan in every international forum be it the United Nations General Assembly or the Commonwealth. A democratic Pakistan is in the interests of India and South Asia and the entire world.