NATO's arrival in Pakistan's quake-hit areas for relief assistance has set alarm bells ringing in the strategic circles in South Asia, portending the angst over NATO presence in the sub-continent for the first time. The uneasiness, particularly in Pakistan over the entry of the multinational force is palpable, several conjectures are being made attributing surreptitious motives for their entry. To what extent has NATO's arrival augmented relief measures? How do Indians and Pakistanis perceive this new development? What implications does it have for the future of security relations in South Asia? Or are the current anxieties about NATO just another figment of suspicious minds?

Ripples were created when the first elements of the NATO Response Force (NRF), the Deployable Joint Task Force Headquarters (tactical) arrived on 29 October in response to a request from Pakistan. The relief effort was launched as early as 11 October when the North Atlantic Council approved major air operations to bring in supplies from NATO and partner countries to Pakistan. NATO airlift operations began in the second week of October and air bridges were created to deliver supplies. Further, requests from Pakistan prompted the deployment of specialist troops, equipment and the establishment of a headquarters to Pakistan heralding the entry of NATO forces.

The battle is primarily against the bone-chilling winter that has already started claiming lives. Time is the real enemy as the Commander of the NATO disaster relief team, Vice Admiral John Stufflebeem, has rightly stated. NATO's air-bridge of 62 flights using C-130s and a B-747s have delivered more than 1,000 tons of supplies from bases in NATO countries, primarily Turkey and Germany. They are doing a commendable job in providing relief assistance in inaccessible areas, in deteriorating weather conditions. The 1,000 strong NATO medical and technical personnel are building a multinational NATO field hospital led by personnel from Netherlands in the Bagh area. The NATO hospital is envisioned to make available a variety of medical services, including surgery. More than 150 medical professionals from several nations, including the Netherlands, the Czech Republic and the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia are expected to staff the facility.

Repeated assurances from the establishment that the presence of NATO would not threaten Pakistan's sovereignty in any way have not assuaged concerns in Pakistan. NATO presence has invited strong condemnation from the opposition parties and has triggered speculations that the larger underlying objective of establishing observation bases in Pakistan is to contain China, which is being achieved by this relief mission. Both the Pakistani government and the NATO command have been prompt in refuting such allegations. However, it is undeniable that the US has been trying for long to establish a military base near China in Pakistan, apart from Central Asia and Afghanistan.

NATO's presence has acquired a new dimension as a possible instrument of conflict resolution in Kashmir. The call for demilitarization of Kashmir under NATO supervision by the All-Party Hurriyat Conference's (APHC) moderate leader, Mirwaiz, has gone down badly with both governments. He has cited NATO's role in crisis management in Bosnia and Kosovo as examples for resolution of the Kashmir issue under third party supervision. This is an unacceptable option to India, which has long opposed foreign intervention in Kashmir. The future of NATO forces in Pakistan is therefore of much interest to India.

Another probable motive attributed to NATO's presence is that the mission is a natural extension of the US pursuit of Al Qaida operatives in the mountainous Himalayan terrain that provides shelter to militants. The International Islamic Front (IIF) also suspects that US and NATO forces deployed there for relief work have these implicit objectives.

This brings up the risk of a third jihadi front being launched against the US on its forces in Pakistani territory, the other two fronts being Afghanistan and Iraq. The misgivings of the IIF is that NATO forces will be provided vital intelligence support and physical security, to protect humanitarian relief material and machinery from likely jihadi attacks while tracking the remnants of the Taliban and Al Qaeda. The Pakistani components of the IIF - the Lashkar-e-Tayiba, the Harkat-ul-Mujahideen, the Jaish-e-Mohammad and the Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami - are the outfits directly affected by these developments. Any indication of stretching the initial 90 day mandate of the NATO forces, which are set to depart in February next year, could trigger off their counter-action, that shall influence the perception of jihad, security and strategic discourse in South Asia.