According to Australia's biggest-ever counter-terrorism investigation report that was released recently, an attack was probably planned on Australia's only nuclear reactor in December 2004. The report indicates that three men were stopped near the Lucas Heights reactor. This police document clearly identifies nuclear reactors as a possible terror target.

Australia has not been victim to major terror attacks on its own soil, but its citizens have been repeatedly targeted overseas, particularly in neighbouring Indonesia. Many Australians were killed in the Bali blasts. Lucas Heights, situated in southern Sydney, is a Commonwealth facility. The reactor is used for making radioactive material for medical uses and does not generate power. Acts of nuclear terrorism have been feared in the region since 2000. Ahead of the Sydney Olympics, detectives in New Zealand were said to have uncovered a possible plot to attack the reactor, but no arrests were made.

This recent revelation once again brings the issue of 'nuclear terrorism' to the forefront of global security and the terrorism discourse. Particularly, after 9/11, a few perceived that since the terrorists are preparing themselves to demonstrate 'shock and awe' and aimed at inflicting maximum casualties during terrorist strikes. Now, their next step could be a nuclear terror attack. However, in the absence of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) in Iraq, Libya's abandonment of its WMD acquisition plans and the A Q Khan exposé, it was felt that the terrorists are not in a position to acquire technology that could be used for nuclear terrorism.

After the disintegration of Soviet Russia, it is reported that approximately 80 to 100 suitcase nuclear bombs (yield less than 1KT) are not accounted for and they could be in the hands of terrorist organizations. Few years back, a Time magazine article quoted that Al Qaeda is probably in possession of nuclear technology. Osama bin Laden was involved in purchasing Uranium from Sudan way back in 1993. Also, during the 2001 Afghanistan war, documents and drawings related to nuclear weapons were found in the mountains of Tora Bora. All these disclosures had led to suspicions that the terrorist organizations are probably in possession of nuclear technology.

Nevertheless, no terrorist organization has attempted to launch a nuclear attack until now and the issue has remained confined to conceptualizing the threat as a possible scenario. In addition, some attempts have been made towards a risk analysis based on mathematical modelling. Scenarios of nuclear threats by terrorist organizations could be broadly sub-divided into flowing categories:

• Terrorist organizations using a conventional nuclear device,

• Terrorist using small nuclear devices like suitcase bombs,

• Sabotage of nuclear sites, and

• Use of radiological weapons (dirty bombs).

This recent disclosure by the Australian authorities indicate that terrorist organizations have probably perceived that acquiring a usable nuclear weapon is extremely difficult and hence they are trying to look for easy alternatives like attacking nuclear sites.

With the global community closely monitoring the flight paths of various airlines, it could be very difficult for any terror group to launch an attack on any nuclear power plant by using a commercial airliner along the lines of 9/11. This leaves sabotage as the only viable option. But, nuclear facilities are robustly built structures. For decades, security against sabotage has been an important part of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and for other nations too. The Australian investigation identifies that other terrorists were working towards manufacturing triacetone triperoxide, a highly unstable explosive from commercially available chemicals. This technique is similar to the bombs used by suicide bombers and the 7 July attacks in London. The inference is that terrorists were planning to fix a similar device inside the Lucas Heights facility.

However, the Lucas Heights complex is surrounded by a 1.6 kilometre-wide forested buffer zone. Even a successful terrorist attack on the plant would yield only minimal returns. The consequences of any successful terrorist attack could be less severe than what is generally feared. Like in the past, even a meltdown of a reactor core at Chernobyl could kill only 30 personnel. As per latest reports, the subsequent effects on the population of the region have been minor and not as severe as envisaged earlier. With the Australian incident, it could be argued that terrorist groups are looking at nuclear sites more seriously. But, these options may not be lucrative enough for the terrorist organizations because the impact may be small. However, with such acts they might create panic among states and get wide publicity for their cause.