Energy Security: India Looks Ahead

28 Oct, 2005    ·   1876

Parama Sinha Palit contends that India's foreign policy decisions reflects its gumption of the global energy calculus as well as its growing assertiveness


 

The Indo-US civil nuclear deal seems to be the focus of all debates both in the government and in the academia across the country. India's quest for nuclear energy is well established. The Indian Foreign Secretary's call for a 'new global nuclear order' recently in one of the forums only vindicates India's stand on the issue.

With new realities and challenges surfacing in the international system, old compulsions seem to be disappearing. New Delhi's stand on Iran in September may be seen in this new light. India decided to go along with the US and EU to refer Iran to UN Security Council for possible nuclear proliferation violations in a 22-1 vote with 12 abstentions. India's vote has elicited domestic criticism since this vote reveals a change in India's traditional foreign policy. The Vienna vote is seen as pro-Western stand, thus undermining India's commitment to non-alignment.

It is quite evident that a nuclear Iran is not in India's interest and a manifestly fundamental regime in Iran poses a challenge to the international community as a whole. Further, with Dr A Q Khan's confession in early 2004 regarding Pakistan's role in proliferating nuclear technology to other countries, the Iranian government acknowledged its possession of a design for a far more advanced high-speed centrifuge, called 'Pak-2', to enrich uranium. With this, the Iran-Pakistan link in sharing nuclear secrets is vindicated.

Despite India's long-term ties with Iran, such developments cannot be overlooked. With such a background, is India's choice to vote against Iran justified? This seems to be a complex issue given India's high-energy requirements. The important question is not 'with the US' or 'against the US'. It is a vote that expresses India's growing concerns over issues such as WMD proliferation and fundamentalism.

In this context, many point to Iran's promising domestic reforms that have been underway, wherein a new generation of Iranian scholars and intellectuals had begun to question the political system. The concept of clerical rule has been challenged and people's participation in the electoral process, right up to the level of the local village council, looked impressive. But the tide took a different course whereby the 2003 municipal council elections witnessed the resurgence of the right wing once again.

In many ways, Iran poses unique challenges to the world community. It has a dedicated agenda for building nuclear capabilities. If acquired such capabilities can complicate the balance of power in volatile West Asia. Moreover, like other countries in the region, it can impact global trade and business, given the high-energy prices and disruption of oil supplies from the country.

As far as India is concerned, as a supplier of energy, Iran is highly significant for India. At the same time, India's views towards Iran's nuclear and strategic ambitions have to take into account other considerations. A significant aspect of India's vote against Iran is the recent posturing in India's foreign policy, which is becoming increasingly inclined towards firm decisions. While the consequences and virtues of such decisions can be debated, there is no doubt that Indian foreign policy is becoming more assertive. India's refusal to send troops to Iraq despite Washington's request, and not withstanding the considerable improvement in Indo-US ties, also underscored a new clarity and unambiguousness in its policy posture. It is evident that India has started taking foreign policy decisions in a matured and responsible manner, which is consistent with its steady emergence as a leading global power.

While concerns have been raised regarding the impact of India's perceived 'anti'-Iran stand on its pressing energy requirements, it is unlikely that such consequences were not considered by India before voting. Whether the gas pipeline project will run into difficulties as a result of the vote is to be seen. However, India is likely to gain access to improved technology and systems for intensively pursuing non-conventional energy options. Extension of US assistance in developing the country's nuclear power generation capabilities is one such example. India is also likely to explore the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan (TAP) pipeline for meeting its energy demands.

Though Iran can become a major energy source for India (if the pipeline becomes functional in due course), India's energy requirements are massive. It is the most buoyant economy in the world after China. As the economy expands, energy demand is only going to increase. In the future, India has to focus on non-conventional sources of energy, since such energy is not perishable unlike hydrocarbons that depend on depleting natural resources. As far as non-conventional energy is concerned, India's best bet lies with the US, not Iran. Thus, India's vote in Vienna is guided by considerations of long-term gains and not short-term losses.

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