HIV/AIDS is an imminent danger that India faces even as it marches towards big power status. The contemporary milieu is of enormous importance for the emergence of India as a power in the international system. This is because India's dexterity to handle the issues confronting it today, and the positive or negative impact they would have on the country will have a direct bearing on its future power configurations. For a nuclear-capable country of approximately 1.3 billion people and an expanding economy, the deadly impact of HIV/AIDS on the country poses a security challenge hitherto not thought of. One need not delve into the details of the theoretical debates surrounding security studies in order to gauge the enormous impact this deadly disease would have on India's security, economy, military forces, society, and especially on the people.

Apart from claims and counter-claims regarding the extent of the spread of the disease in India, it is generally agreed upon that HIV/AIDS is rapidly spreading into India's villages. In fact, 51 per cent of those infected with HIV/AIDS in the country are in rural India. Around 70 per cent of India's population lives in rural areas and their health facilities are not adequate to identify the disease, let alone provide sustained treatment. Consider the fact that one-fifth of all of India's infections - over one million cases - are due to improperly screened blood and blood products.

Even as rural areas report more cases, six states in India - Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Nagaland and Manipur - account for around 60 per cent of all of India's infections. We also need to understand that these are the states that are comparatively more educated and therefore are identifying the seriousness of the disease and reporting them.

Perhaps less known is the fact that today HIV/AIDS is the fifth largest killer in the Indian military. Various estimates have suggested that the prevalence rate of the disease in the military has been 0.34%, 1.3%, and 0.77% in 1998, 2000, and 2001, respectively. It is also estimated that that there is 2 per cent infection among those coming forward from the military to donate blood. The Asian Age reported in 2004 that there are over 5,000 HIV+ cases in the armed forces and on an average 50 men are testing positive each month. Lt. Gen. Bhopinder Singh, Director General of Assam Rifles, hit the nail on the head when he recently said, "[N]ow we find more soldiers dying from HIV/AIDS than from bullets fired by militants".

The prevalence rate of HIV/AIDS in African militaries has made it abundantly clear that peacekeeping missions can both spread and contract HIV/AIDS. India is one of the highest troop contributing countries to the UN's peacekeeping operations around the world. The prospect of its forces being infected by HIV/AIDS could be a worry for the Indian government in the future.

Even though there is no comprehensive study that has mapped the economic costs and losses of HIV/AIDS in India, various sectoral studies conducted in different parts of the country have indicated that the disease will affect India's health sector, industry, transport sector, labour productivity, foreign trade, household income, tourism etc. In 1997 the World Bank reported that if India maintains its current level of health care subsidies, a severe AIDS epidemic would increase government expenditure by about $2 billion per year by 2010. If there is a hike in the subsidies to the 50 per cent level, an epidemic of the same proportions would increase annual government health expenditure by an additional $30 billion. This is despite the fact that India's public health expenditure is no more than one per cent of its GDP.

Considering that the working age of population in India - which will see an unprecedented increase in the next 20-30 years - is going to be a key factor in India's economic growth in the years to come since this is a labour-intensive economy. It is precisely this group that is afflicted by the wide and rapid spread of HIV/AIDS. The mean age of people currently being treated for HIV/AIDS is between 25-30 years.

Moreover, given India's socio-economic conditions, HIV/AIDS will prove to be catastrophic due to the added impact of factors like rampant poverty, ignorance about the disease and the stigma attached to the disease. Therefore, India's aspirations for great power status may well be upset by HIV/AIDS. Being the biggest country, population, economy, and military power in an unstable South Asian region, the impact of HIV/AIDS on India will not only decide the future course of the disease in the region, but also the future course of geopolitics in the South Asian region.

Happymon Jacob is the author of HIV/AIDS as a Security Threat to India (New Delhi: Manohar Publishers, 2005)