Premier Jiabao's Visit: From Rivals to Partners?

25 Apr, 2005    ·   1712

Satyabrat Sinha assesses the impact of the Chinese Premier's visit on Sino-Indian relations


Premier Wen Jiabao concluded his four day visit to India on 12 April 2005. It was part of his eight day South Asia visit, which included Bangladesh and Pakistan. The focus of the Chinese delegation was economics but without losing sight of the vexatious political issues between the two countries. The Chinese Prime Minister first visited Bangalore, before reaching New Delhi indicating the economic bias in the current visit. Trade between India and China has grown by over 80 percent in the last five years to reach $14 billion in 2004, which is a major factor in laying new foundations for the development and diversification of trade relations that is expected to reach $20 billion by 2008. The two sides also agreed to conduct a feasibility study on establishing a Regional Trading Arrangement within a year.

The most significant announcement was enunciation of the eleven "political parameters and guiding principles" for settlement of the boundary question. The two sides signed an agreement to resolve the decades-old dispute over their 3,500 km Himalayan border, which led to the 1962 war conflict. Apropos, the two sides agreed to respect settled populations and each other's security concerns while continuing to negotiate a final settlement. Article III of the principles mentions "meaningful and mutually acceptable adjustments" to arrive at a "package settlement" which is "final" and covers "all sectors" of the India-China boundary. This is construed as moving towards recognizing the status quo, resulting in China relinquishing its claim to 90,000 square km (35,000 square miles) of Arunachal Pradesh, while retaining control of Aksai Chin. The two sides also mention that an "early settlement" of the boundary dispute will advance their mutual interests, designating this task as a "strategic objective". This contrasts with the earlier Chinese approach of placing the issue on the back burner to build trust by moving forward in other sphere of cooperation. The Chinese Premier also presented Manmohan Singh with a new map that shows, for the first time, the state of Sikkim as part of India, and referred to it as "an inalienable part of India".

On the issue of Chinese support to India's UN Security Council candidature, the joint statement issued on 11 April 2005 states in Article XVI that, "Both ...agree that reform of the United Nations should be comprehensive and multi-faceted and should put emphasis on an increase in the representation of developing countries. The Indian side reiterated its aspirations for permanent membership of the UN Security Council. The Chinese side also reiterated that India is an important developing country and is having an increasingly important influence in the international arena. China attaches great importance to the status of India in international affairs. It understands and supports India's aspirations to play an active role in the UN and international affairs..." There was some confusion after the Indian Foreign secretary told the press that the Chinese supported India's aspirations. The official Chinese news agency Xinhua then carried a clarification and the Chinese Ambassador in New Delhi also spoke of Chinese support to India. On 12 April, Xinhua, confirmed that the "...visiting Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said here on Tuesday... China supports India's bid for a permanent seat in the United Nations Security Council ... He [Mr. Wen] said he had conveyed the support to Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh during their talks here." This marks an important victory for India, and certainly a triumph for Sino-Indian relations. Interestingly, China has yet an escape clause due to the confusion over the model to be adopted by the United Nations to democratize the Security Council.

The visit also marked the 55th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic ties between India and China. The two sides signed 12 agreements on issues ranging from the boundary settlement and, a protocol on film cooperation to the establishment of a strategic partnership for peace and prosperity. The visit can be considered a success on the basis of the possibilities of greater economic cooperation opened up and the political guidelines issued for resolving the boundary dispute. The two sides have come a long way since Rajiv Gandhi went to China in 1988. The resolution of the boundary dispute still remains an important marker but there are reasons to be optimistic about the outcome. Regional trading arrangements and a boundary settlement could provide the energy for a new partnership between the two most populous nations in the world. They can transform the 'rivalry' between the two Asian giants to a new power configuration in Asia over the coming decades.

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