The Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao's visit to India is definitely significant within the context of Sino-Indian relations. Before his arrival it was believed that the visit would merely formalize many processes that were already in place. The 1993 and 1996 agreements had initiated a process for resolving the boundary dispute and maintaining peace and tranquility along the border. Hence, the formal declaration establishing a 'Strategic and Cooperative Partnership for Peace and Prosperity' was not surprising; the just inked MoUs and agreements only reaffirm the vibrancy of the growing relationship.

Some analysts have argued that this growing India-China relationship would shift the balance of power in Asia. For example, Howard French in his New York Times article argues, "The rise of China has already been felt far and wide... The addition of India, already a major force in services, could pull the globe's economic and political center of gravity decidedly toward Asia, and away from an aging Europe and a United States already stretched by security threats and swelling deficits." The underlying assumption is: India is in an enviable situation of economic revival that both China and US want to join. Consequently, the India-China tango could generate closer ties between India and the United States. This assumption is largely true: from $2.9 billion in 2000, India-China bilateral trade has jumped to more than $13 billion and is targeted for $20 billion by 2008; very soon China may get ahead of the US as India's largest trading partner.

How does Pakistan figure in this configuration of growing India-China and India-US relations? Will these linkages weaken Pakistan's relations with China and the US and make Pakistan strategically unappealing to them? The answer is no. There is nothing inhibiting China from continuing its aid to Pakistan. Prior to his visit to India, the Chinese Premier visited Pakistan and signed 22 agreements for cooperation in specific sectors. Apart from military and technological aid, China has made huge economic investments in Pakistan. The Gwadar port that is being constructed with Chinese help has economic and strategic significance as it will allow China to access fossil fuels in Central Asia, and permit China to acquire a strategic presence in this region.

It is true that China's support to Pakistan's policy over Kashmir has changed over the years. However, this is not because of its perceived closeness to India, but because of the changed international and domestic scenario. At the domestic level, China has been wary about the Tibet issue and the dissatisfaction in Sinkiang. Since territorial integrity is important for China, it is hardly likely to support the secession of Kashmir or any territory within India. At the international level, Kargil was the decisive event, which consolidated China's preference for the sanctity of the LoC. This could also be due to the embarrassing way the Pakistani establishment was recorded on tape discussing the Kargil intrusions while Musharraf was still on Chinese soil.

Just as India cannot replace Pakistan in the Sino-Pak tango, India cannot also relegate Pakistan in the US-Pakistan relationship. The US needs Pakistan and Musharraf for keeping? the jihadi elements in check and capturing Osama bin Laden. Another crucial issue on which US wants Pakistan's cooperation is stopping further nuclear leakages through A Q Khan. Consequently, Pakistan and Musharraf will remain important to the US despite growing Indo-US relations.

So how does one see the latest China-India interaction at high levels?

• First, it continues a process set into motion over a decade back.
  

• Second, the boundary issue is a difficult problem, but both countries are improving their relations in other areas to establish a basis in trust upon which this issue can be resolved. A major guideline listed for resolving the boundary issue is, "The two sides will take into account, inter alia, historical evidence, national sentiments, practical difficulties and reasonable concerns and sensitivities of both sides, and the actual state of border areas." This is a broad mandate, indicating the confidence reached by the two sides to appreciate "sensitivities" and "national sentiments" in addition to historical facts.
  

• Third, many challenges remain. However, if both countries see them as opportunities for cooperation, there is scope for consolidating the relationship. It was important to separate territorial issues from political relations, and this is what the countries are currently doing.
  

• Fourth, the India-China relationship poses no challenge to the US or Pakistan, as these sets of bilateral relations are independent of each other. India's power in the region is growing because of its economy. Its military capabilities and its maritime presence in the Indian Ocean are significant. It would auger well for US, China and India to collaborate rather than compete to the largest extent possible. This is what is probably evolving in the policies of the three countries.