Indo-Myanmar Economic Relations and Northeast Insurgency

21 Nov, 2004    ·   1563

Anand Kumar analyses the prospects for India-Myanmar economic relations if Myanmar keeps its promise of " military operation against northeast militants"


There has been a drastic change in India's policy towards Myanmar in recent years. India decided to engage Myanmar through bilateral as well as multi-lateral means as its policy of boycott after the military takeover in the country in 1988 failed to produce desired results. The Indo-Myanmar bilateral relations received impetus from the October visit of Than Shwe, the head of state and Chairman of the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) of Myanmar.

The India-Myanmar border has been a concern for India. Whenever Indian security forces increase pressure on the insurgent groups in its northeastern states, they cross the 1,436 km porous border with Myanmar. Though Yangon launched a crackdown on these insurgent groups three years ago, it remained more concerned about its border problems with China and Thailand. The Indian border received a low priority.

In a bid to make the Myanmar administration take more interest on the Indian border, New Delhi has been raising Yangon's economic stakes in the region by undertaking various infrastructure projects. The Moreh-Kalemao road, the trilateral highway project from Moreh to Maesot in Thailand passing through Myawaddy in Myanmar and an optical fibre telecommunication network along the highway at a cost of $800 million are some of them.

India is also interested in enhancing bilateral trade with Myanmar. The current bilateral trade between India and Myanmar is worth $428 million. The joint task force of the two countries released a report in New Delhi on 25 October this year which stated that India-Myanmar bilateral trade can double to $1 billion by 2006 if the two countries utilize their common border to step up economic cooperation.

India wants to develop the industrial potential in its northeastern region and make it a natural base for bilateral trade with Myanmar. It hopes to achieve this by developing roads, airports, power, railways, telecom, banking and finance. It also has a policy for concessional freight tariff for movement of goods.

To accelerate border trade, India opened a second transit point at Zowkhathar-Rhi in Mizoram earlier this year, in addition to the Moreh-Tamu point in Manipur. The opening of a new trade route also emphasized the need to speedily develop infrastructure facilities at the points of transit so that trade could take place at the earliest.

India has emerged as the largest export market for Myanmar, accounting for nearly one-fourth of it's exports. It has also become Myanmar's fourth largest trading partner. Indian imports from Myanmar have touched $400 million while exports are at $100 million. Though India wants to correct this imbalance by increasing exports, it is not in favour of any artificial balancing of trade. It wants a genuine expansion of bilateral cooperation that could exploit the full economic potential of both countries.

India is also helping its neighbour build a $30 million crude oil refinery in Thanlyin - it has invested $4.5 million in the project - and is involved with South Korea's Daewoo in exploration and production in a gas field on the western Rakhine coast. Myanmar is the only South East Asian country with which India shares both land and maritime boundaries. India sees Myanmar not only as a bridge to Southeast Asia, but also as an alternative route for transit of goods.

During his visit, Shwe had a very productive meeting with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on enhancing strategic ties, particularly in areas like security, energy and transportation. Both sides signed an MoU on cooperation on non-traditional security issues. Shwe assured Indian leadership that he would not allow Myanmar to be used for anti-India operations. Myanmar also showed willingness to mount a military operation against northeast militants and beef up vigil along its border with India.

The MoU would institutionalize security cooperation between India and Myanmar. Apart from operational intelligence, the countries will exchange personnel too. There is also a possibility of joint operations. As part of its security cooperation, New Delhi will provide the necessary military hardware to Myanmar.

However, India has not ignored its concern for democracy in Myanmar in its bid for better relationship. But the issue was discussed in a gentle way, so that it does not leave any negative impact on bilateral relationship.

India's Look East policy, now appears to be delivering. Myanmar's fulfillment of its promise of taking action against the northeast insurgent groups will enhance trade and economic relations and unlock the economic potential of the region and wean away people from these armed groups.

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