Even as April 2005, the deadline set to hold elections draws closer, Nepalese Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba has begun making serious efforts to resume peace talks with the Maoists as well as strengthen the Royal Nepal Army. Will his twin strategy help him pull Nepal out of the crisis? An answer is difficult at present.

Given the circumstances, options are very limited for Prime Minister Deuba. The issue of insurgency cannot be tackled in isolation, unless the political parties, the King and the Maoists come together and find out a common path. The Maoists have their own suggestions to deal with the situation like, the abolition of monarchy, an interim government and a new republican constitution. Some of these demands seem quite impractical.

For instance, the abolition of monarchy is an impractical solution, because the King is still regarded as incarnation of Vishnu, the Hindu god of protection in the Himalayan Kingdom. The formation of an interim government and adoption of a new republican constitution also seem impractical without the support of the political parties because all of them are against the abolition of monarchy. The political parties are even divided on the resolution of crisis in the country. For instance, the leading parties like CPN(UML) and Nepali Congress differ on the issue of a constituent assembly.

In contrast to the Maoists and the political parties' views, the Deuba government has begun working on a twin strategy of cooperation and confrontation. The government did not reciprocate to the Maoists' call for ceasefire in the country in view of the festival period, but rather tacitly returned the gesture by not conducting any security operations during the festival period.

According to experts on Nepal affairs in India, there are two options available to the Deuba government to handle the situation. One is to hold elections. The experts favour that elections should be held with or without the Maoists. To persuade Maoists to lay down arms and hold peace talks, they suggest, a constitutional reforms committee should be appointed through an ordinance to look into 43 demands of the rebels so that they have a face saving formula before they agree for talks. The proposed committee should suggest amendments in the 14 year old constitution.

In case the Maoists still refuse to come for negotiations, elections should be conducted, insist experts. Suggesting that Nepal should learn from India's experience in Kashmir, they however clarified that 'imperfect' elections would at least help in establishing a democratic government in the country which has been facing its worst political and financial crisis. The experts admitted that public boycott, bandh calls, fear of violence before and during election process from the rebels cannot be ruled out in that situation but insisted that this option should be explored in order to break the impasse. Also, it would help restore the confidence of the people in the democratic institutions in the country.

Another is military option for which there is a need to strengthen the Royal Nepal Army and the armed police to crush insurgency in the country. Maintaining that the rebels were better equipped and well trained than the Royal Nepal Army personnel, experts however suggested that military solution should be explored because of vivacious character of the rebels who they said have used cease-fire period to straighten themselves. In fierce battles with insurgents until recently, the RNA has suffered huge losses in terms of manpower and equipments. To overcome its weaknesses, it is high time that the RNA personnel and armed police get proper training and equipment to fight against the rebels. The Terai region and difficult mountainous terrain in the other parts coupled with poor roads, shortage of helicopters and lack of equipment have made it difficult for the RNA to fight insurgents effectively.

Meanwhile, PM Deuba has in fact taken several steps to strengthen the RNA in terms of equipment and personnel. His government has recently bought arms and ammunitions from the United States to combat the Maoists. The RNA has obtained M-16 rifles and explosives from the US besides training in counter-insurgency operations. The RNA has got ammunitions from India which has supplied INSAS rifles and fighter helicopters to Nepal. Prime Minister Deuba denied rumours that M-4 the military assistance from the International community would adversely affect the dialogue process and said that there is a need to strengthen security forces in the country. Besides, the Deuba government has decided to increase the strength of RNA by at least 10,000 personnel through two divisions and five battalions. The RNA? presently has a strength of more than 70,000 personnel.

However, it will be interesting to watch unfolding developments in Nepal which is facing the worst crisis for nearly a decade.