The Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies (IPCS), New Delhi, conducted a survey on “Popular Perception of the Kashmir Conflict” in the border districts of Kupwara, Handwara and Sopore during 1-6 June 2003. The survey was based on an informal conversation with 203 people from diverse backgrounds including political leaders, College Principals, District Officers, Bar Association, Tongawallas, vendors, unemployed persons, students and businessmen, apart from the Deputy Commissioner, Kupwara,. The findings of this survey are as follows:

·         Indo -Pak Dialogue and Kashmir

54 percent are optimistic about the possibility of an Indo-Pak dialogue vis-à-vis Kashmir. For example, Nazir Ahmad, District Information Officer, Kupwara, felt: “It is a good gesture and it is necessary for both countries to bring flexibility in their stances vis-à-vis Kashmir at this point of time. To address a core issue like Kashmir, it is a good exercise to start with such confidence building measures and then come to negotiation table.”

However, 46 percent believe that the two countries have been resuming and snapping ties in the past, and this time too, would not be an exception.

·         Independent Kashmir, Accession to Pakistan, Conversion of LOC into International Border, Greater Autonomy for Kashmir

75 percent advocate ‘Independent Kashmir’ as a viable and lasting solution to the Kashmir dispute. For example, Ab. Hafiz, KAS Officer, understood that “Independent Kashmir would be a viable solution to the dispute. Kashmir is known for its beauty and resources. Tourism sector would provide jobs to tens of thousands of people. Utilization of resources in a proper manner would ensure the prosperity of the state.”

Only 12 percent believe in Accession to Pakistan.

However, 13 percent feel that greater autonomy for Kashmir (allowing Kahmiris to share trade and other ties with Pakistan) would be a solution to the dispute.

All respondents denounced the Conversion of LOC into the ‘International Border’ as a viable solution.

·         Representative character of the Hurriyat Conference

74 percent believe that the Hurriyat Conference is representative of the people in the Valley, but it has no representative character in Jammu, Ladakh and Leh. For example, Abida Fatima, BSc second year student in the Degree College, Handwara, felt: “Hurriyat represents the sentiments of the people. They do not have their own agenda. They (Hurriyat) advocate the Kashmir cause and demand resolution of Kashmir according to the wishes of the Kashmiris.” Gulshan Nabi shared her views adding, “The Hurriyat represents the voice of the people in the Valley. In Jammu and Ladakh, they claim no representative character.”

17 percent doubt the organization’s representative character.

9 percent argue that a referendum would better decide whether the Hurriyat is truly representative of the Kashmiri people. Nazir Ahmed, District information officer, Kupwara, argued: “It would be difficult to mark whether Hurriyat safeguards the interests of majority. The organization’s representative claim can be judged only by a referendum.” 

·         Presence of foreign militants in the Valley

81 percent see the presence of foreign militants as aggravating the ties between the two countries and complicating the Kashmir issue. For instance, Mumtaz Bukhari, Lecturer in English at the Degree College, Sopore, felt that “although foreign militants seem to intensify the freedom struggle, as far as resolution of the Kashmir issue in accordance with the wishes of majority is concerned, their presence may complicate the issue and delay its resolution.”

19 percent believe that presence of foreign militants on Kashmiri soil would contribute to the resolution of Kashmir issue.  

·         Role for US and UN in resolving Kashmir issue

83 percent believe that the US has an important role to play in the resolution of the Kashmir issue. They see the US behind the recent Indo-Pak peace exercise. For instance, MH Zafar who edits the journal Baad felt: “Change in the mindset of Vajpayee and Musharraf seems to be due to the American pressure. America being the superpower has a greater say in the Kashmir issue. It claims great influence over both countries.”

17 percent felt that the US had no role in the resolution of the Kashmir issue and that the two countries have to resolve the issue through trilateral talks between India, Pakistan and the people of Kashmir.

69 percent believe that the UN has no role, especially after its ineffective role during the Iraq war. Raja Mansoor Ali, public prosecutor, observed: “the UN has lost its very existence after the Iraq war. It is a puppet in the hands of America. It cannot play any role in Kashmir issue. Nevertheless, America wishes it to do so.”

29 percent felt that the UN had a role in the resolution of the Kashmir issue.

2 percent offered no comments in this regard.          

·         The Mufti Government

In Kupwara, people expressed anguish against the Mufti Government. They felt that the Government should step down. The growing resentment came in the wake of the custodial killing of a forest employee, Mohd. Ashraf, which led to a complete shutdown for a week, believed to be the first shutdown lasting for seven days in the border town.

71 percent believe that Mufti has not been able to provide good governance and there has been no letup in the bloodshed and violence since the Government came to power. Gulzar Ahmed, a final year student said: “Though the Government, time and again, reiterates to fulfill promises made to the people, it has failed to do the same on the ground.”

However, 29 percent believe that there are some changes on the ground. Ab. Hafeez, KAS officer, felt: “The Mufti government seems to be a better government when compared to its predecessor NC on some counts. It is believed that the government would prove better in times ahead.”

·         The ‘healing touch’ policy

A majority showed great resentment of the ‘healing touch’ policy, especially in Kupwara. 79 percent argue that the term ‘healing touch’ has been coined by the Mufti Government to delude the people of the Valley. However, 21 percent advocate a healing touch for different reasons. Some say that the Government has been generous to the victims of violence. Others believe that the government is serious about addressing unemployment in the Valley and thus far a number of unemployed youth have been absorbed in different departments like Rehbar Taleem in Education and Rehbar Sahat in Healthcare. Some praise the Government as being people-friendly and term it better than its predecessor, National Conference. For example, Farooq Ahmed, a senior professor at Kupwara College, felt: “The government seems to be serious in addressing unemployment… The human rights violations have also declined to some extent.”

Unlike Srinagar where a massive 84 per cent people are pessimistic about the Indo-Pak dialogue according to the IPCS survey conducted in the month of April-May, people outside the capital have a different perception. A good 54 per cent in the border districts of Kupwara, Handwara and Sopore have strong reasons to believe that the two countries will enter into a result-oriented dialogue vis-à-vis Kashmir. They believe this as they see American intervention behind the peace exercise that could bring the two countries to the negotiation table. They do feel that America is more serious now, possibly because of its own interest’s vis-à-vis Kashmir. People in Srinagar do not see American intervention as enough to make the two countries enter a dialogue process in the near future.

There are two main reasons why the Hurriyat claims some footing in Kupwara, Handwara and Sopore. A considerable 75 percent of people believe that the organization, by not participating in the elections has made it amply clear that it has no lust for power but is committed to resolving the  Kashmir issue in accordance with the wishes of the Kashmiri people. Second, the organization has taken care of the victims of violence and come forward to condemn the atrocities committed on the people by the security forces, renegades and surrendered militants. A majority in Srinagar argue that the Hurriyat’s representative character has been eroded on two counts. One, there are differences within the Hurriyat which is leading to its disintegration, unless it gets united, it cannot represent the people of the Valley, Second, the conglomerate has not been making the required efforts to seek a resolution of the Kashmir issue. 

People, by and large, see Independent Kashmir as a lasting solution to the dispute, a visible change in the perception of people. Now, 75 percent advocate an ‘Independent Kashmir’ in rural Kashmir. In the early 90s, when militancy was at its peak, the majority believed in accession to Pakistan as a viable solution. There is a strong reason for this drastic change in perceptions not only in rural Kashmir but in Urban Kashmir also. People have discovered that foreign militants fighting in Kashmir have brought a bad name to the freedom struggle; because of foreign militants, India was able to denounce the freedom struggle as terrorism to the displeasure of Kashmiris at large. India has thus been able to convince the international community in this regard.

Of late, the people in the Valley have come to look down on foreign militants. Besides understanding that their presence aggravates a resolution of the Kashmir issue, a massive 81 per cent have come to realize that militants operate in a systematic and planned manner to bring about the accession of Kashmir to Pakistan for their own interests rather than liberate Kashmir from India.