Advances in India's space program are a symbol of the country's sophisticated technological abilities and its growing regional and global prestige. While India's space program focuses largely on scientific and commercial uses of space, such as urban development projects and reclaiming barren farmland, India's satellite-based Military Surveillance and Reconnaissance System, set to become operational in 2007, will provide India with dedicated military satellite intelligence. The set-up of extensive ground-based surveillance systems, connected to the country's remote sensing satellites, will enable India to keep a watch on all volatile regions, missile silos, sudden military build-ups, and troop movements in the neighborhood. Although this capability is not entirely new to Indian defense forces, the Military Surveillance and Reconnaissance System would substantially increase India's capability to monitor security interests and military developments in the region, significantly impacting South Asia's geo-strategic balance.

India decided to develop an independent indigenous reconnaissance satellite capability after the 1999 incursion of Pakistani troops into disputed territory in Kashmir caught it by surprise. Several of India's current civilian satellites have resolutions that would make them acceptable spy satellites. The Technology Experiment Satellite (TES), launched by the Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO) in 2001, can distinguish objects and details on Earth as small as one square meter. The satellite is capable, for instance, of identifying troop movements along the Pakistani border, but would not be able to identify individual personnel. The ISRO says its programmes are civilian-related, but the organization has demonstrated its willingness to undertake military enterprises in the past. In 1992, for example, the U.S. Department of State imposed trade sanctions against the ISRO for its missile proliferation activities in India. As ISRO Chairman Dr K Kasturirangan commented after launching TES, "It will be for civilian use consistent with our security concerns." The TES has since successfully transmitted high-quality images of the war in Afghanistan and of Pakistani troop movements along the border.

The advanced remote sensing satellite Resourcesat-1, launched in 2003, has a maximum resolution of approximately 6 meters. In 2005, the ISRO went on to launch the 2.5-meter resolution Cartosat-1 satellite, which has two cameras able to point at an object from two different angles, along with the capability to process stereoscopic data and generate digital elevation maps. Cartosat-2, set to launch next year, is expected to have better than 1-meter resolution and a 120 GB storage capacity for captured images. Officially, both of the Cartosat satellites will be used for cartographic purposes, but their potential dual-use (civilian and military) functions and reconnaissance capabilities could certainly enhance military interests and operations as well.

Indian satellite capabilities have considerable implications for current nuclear deterrence stability with Pakistan. The planned Military Surveillance and Reconnaissance System would provide India with daily coverage of Pakistan's military installations, enhancing its ability to counter Pakistani forces and military operations. For instance, India would have the option of reliably launching a conventional strike against Pakistan's F-16s and other nuclear weapon delivery systems at their bases. Pakistan's missile forces could also be detected and monitored by Indian satellites and therefore might not be able to escape an Indian first strike, a factor which weakens Pakistan's deterrence and might consequently make Islamabad more likely to consider a pre-emptive first strike of its own.

India's satellite intelligence capabilities could also provide its military planners tactical and strategic information on Chinese military forces in Tibet. Satellite reconnaissance would give Indian armed forces sufficient early warning about the movement of Chinese military forces from central China towards Tibet and India, thereby aiding the deployment of Indian forces in time to counter any movement of Chinese troops.

At the same time, India's space program has the potential to substantially contribute to security and non-proliferation in the region. Satellite images and intelligence could be used to monitor military facilities under arms-control agreements between New Delhi and Islamabad or Beijing. Commercial uses for Indian space assets and the sharing of technology throughout the region could facilitate regional confidence and further current interdependence initiatives such as the South Asia Free Trade Agreement or the proposed Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline. This increase in regional cooperation could likely lead to a decrease in regional tensions and advance prospects for non-proliferation in South Asia. The international community could promote non-proliferation goals in India by creating an attractive package including greater space cooperation and potential increases in civil nuclear aid in exchange for decreases in the production of nuclear weapons and the partial disarmament of existing stockpile.

Despite its limited resources, India has developed a broad-based space program with indigenous launch vehicles, satellites, data processing, and control facilities. The implementation of the Military Surveillance and Reconnaissance System would provide India with dedicated military satellite intelligence that would further the increasing role satellites play in India's security concerns. This asset could lead to a more unstable regional security balance, but with conscientious decision-making and clear policy objectives, might well provide a unique opportunity to enhance non-proliferation initiatives, promote regional confidence and facilitate India's emergence as a major player in Asian affairs.