India and the US in a Changing World
Chair: Maj Gen (retd.) Dipankar Banerjee, Director, IPCS
Speaker: Dr Evan Feigenbaum, Senior Fellow, East, Central and South Asia, Council on Foreign Relations
Evan Feigenbaum
We are at the end of an extremely transformative period in Indo-US relations. This is because three key obstacles to good relations are now behind us. First, the Cold War - which saw the US locked in an intense ideological confrontation with the Soviet Union thus making the India-led Non-Aligned Movement incompatible with US policy - has ended. Second, Indo-US relations had for long completely lacked economic content. However, this changed with the process of liberalization in India and as a result Indo-US trade relations have scaled new heights and it is a two-way trade. Today, the US is India’s number one trading partner in goods and services although for the US, India is at the seventeenth position. Third, the nuclear bottleneck in the relationship has been removed with the help of the Indo-US nuclear deal.
Twelve years ago, Americans did not think of India very much and those who did, did so in a very narrow South Asian context in terms of Kashmir and Indo-Pak. However following the rapid emergence of the Indian economy, Indian entrepreneurs investing in the US and the presence of a large Indian community in the US, perceptions have changed and now India is seen not just as a South Asian power but rather as an emerging Asian power. The Indo-US relationship is in all likelihood going to move forward, irrespective of which government is in power, primarily because this relationship has now acquired a certain base in which it is grounded. This stands in stark contrast to India’s relations with certain other traditional partners such as Russia, for instance, where the relationship completely lacks a human dimension
An indicator of the general continuity in policy towards India can be gauged from the fact that the Indo-US nuclear deal enjoyed bipartisan support in the US Congress, which was controlled by the Democrats. Senators such as Joe Biden, Nancy Pelosi and Barack Obama, all voted for this deal and thus indicated a commitment towards staying the course on Indo-US relations.
There are three major questions that are likely to arise now in the Indo-US relationship: first, to what extent would their future relationship be determined by the unfinished agenda, for instance of defence and space cooperation. Will both sides be able to take the necessary initiatives and follow these through to their logical conclusion? Expectations appear quite positive in this regard.
Second, is there a next big idea to take this relationship to an even higher level? This does not seem to be the case. On the Indian side, movement on issues such as high-technology transfers and on the US side, progress on issues of trade, climate change and agriculture will play an important role in determining this relationship. In fact the US-India relationship is the least global of all American relationships as there is no dialogue between the two on issues of climate change, or even on common interests in Africa and Latin America. A dialogue on these areas and potential evolution of a common policy could constitute the next big idea.
Third, how will the two sides manage issues such as climate change and to a lesser degree the Doha round of trade negotiations and arms control regimes such as the CTBT. Of these climate change is the most important. The Bush administration had a policy on the supply side but not for the demand side. The Obama administration however is talking of environmental caps on demand side too.
There are obvious differences between the two countries on the above issues; the question is how these differences will be handled so that acrimony does not creep back into the relationship. A bad scenario could be the US cutting a deal on climate change with China and then asking India to accept such a deal, to which India is unlikely to agree. The challenge for Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, when she visits India in July will be to ensure that the momentum of the relationship built up over the years is used to conclude some of the unfinished agenda of the previous administration and even if there is no big idea, the two countries should at least rhetorically be able to convey how to carry forward Indo-US relations.
With the Indian government not burdened now with support from the Left parties, the impact on foreign policy remains to be seen. It is likely that the Indian government will taking forward its reform process, allowing foreign educational institutions to open up in India - all of which will have an impact on the relationship with the US.
DISCUSSION
- With a change in the administration, the cosy days in the relationship might be over but this does not necessarily imply a loss of momentum. Also within South Asia, Obama’s priorities have taken him away from an India focus, seen for instance in the AfPak policy. While this does not have negative connotations per se, it is other issues that are important to the US that have been elevated and something India needs to take note of. Also for India the road for settlement with Pakistan does not run through Afghanistan, there is a difference of priorities with the US.
- There is a visibly new discourse on terror reflected for instance in the Cairo speech in which the expressions “terror” and “terrorism” were deliberately omitted. This throws a challenge to India’s comprehension of US policy. Further, issues like the nuclear deal for instance are no longer big ideas, especially when the new administration is talking of nuclear disarmament.
- Indian will have to start looking at the US not just in global but also in Asian terms, especially in light of ideas like the G2 floating around and China emerging as the new messiah, particularly in the Asian region where its peripheral areas are under its complete political and economic dominance.
- Some major policy decision will have to be taken by the US on technology transfers, if that does not happen then there could have problems. Also the liability clause in the nuclear agreement could be a potential stumbling block.
- US relations with Pakistan and China will have an impact on Indo-US relations. The US feels indebted to China because of its economic troubles and thus views China in a very different light. There appears to be a certain wariness that has set in at the moment owing to the six months when no substantial engagement has occurred between India and the US relations and the idea of G2 has been doing the rounds. In cosying up to Beijing the question that is asked in India is how will this affect US role with India. . As far as relations with Pakistan are concerned, India has never objected to US aid to Pakistan per se; what it has objections to is the aid to the Pakistani military.
- The AfPak policy has caused unease on two counts: first, it asks India to take steps to ease the pressure on Pakistan, which has actually been the perpetrator of terrorism and India its victim. Second, it has asked Beijing to get involved in AfPak by training the Pakistani army in counterinsurgency, leaving out New Delhi whose vital interests are involved.
- India-US relations suffer from a serious lack of institutionalized processes of engagement. The progress of the last few years has revolved entirely around the Indo-US nuclear deal with little else to show in other areas bar defence ties where some cooperation is ongoing. For two big and major powers like India and the US, this is a sorry state of affairs.
- Manmohan Singh’s experience with the US administration over the course of the nuclear deal has been very positive and the US could use his favorable disposition towards it to pursue constructive engagement with India on issues like climate change.
Raghav Sharma
Research Officer
