Current Developments in Jammu and Kashmir
Chair: PR Chari, Research Professor, IPCS
Speaker: S S Bloeria, Former Chief Secretary, Jammu and Kashmir
P R Chari
A discussion on the current developments in Jammu and Kashmir needs to stress four issues. First is the rise of the National Conference to power in a coalition alliance with the Congress. The future of this government is of prime concern as the National Conference could be seen as a true Jammu and Kashmir party having representatives in different parts of the state. The second issue for consideration is how the controversy surrounding Amarnath land transfer has brought about a chasm in Jammu and Kashmir, dividing Jammu and the Valley for the first time. The third important concern is regarding the state of the present militancy—is it a seasonal activity or new resurgence. The fourth and final issue requiring special attention is how the present situation in Jammu and Kashmir impacts the relationship between India and Pakistan.
SS Bloeria
Return of Democracy
The assembly elections in 2002 had led to the realization in the minds of people in the state that they could actually change the government through the democratic process of elections. This maybe deemed to be the turning point in the psychology of the people, especially in the Valley. The ‘healing-touch philosophy’ of Chief Minister Mufti Mohammad Sayeed in 2003 had an impact on the psyche of the people helping to bring down the temperature. The erection of border fences during this year along the LOC had a remarkable impact on illegal movements across the border. with the ratio between the infiltration numbers and attrition numbers becoming adverse for the first time.
Amarnath Land Transfer Agitation
The agitation which surfaced in the state last year had a deep influence on the current situation. For the first time, a deep rift has developed between the people of Jammu and the people in the Valley who adopted irreconcilable positions. Although the situation has improved considerably, in part due to the understanding between the people of the Valley and Jammu, this incident left an indelible impression on the social fabric of Jammu. Unfortunately, for the first time in the history of the state, cracks have developed between the Hindu majority and the Muslim majority areas. The Muslim majority locations were displaying allegiance to the people of the valley, this was of serious concern since the Muslims in Jammu for the first time started looking towards the Valley, a development that had no parallel from 1947 to 2008. Their identity was more akin to Jammu in terms of language, culture and other traditional linkages. What followed immediately after the agitation was that the elections displayed a high participation of the voters. The distinguishing feature of the elections was that the BJP gained eleven seats as against one in the last election.
Overall percentage of polling in assembly election
| 1996 |
53.92 |
| 2002 |
43.70
|
| 2008 |
61.47 |
Percentage of number people contesting per constituency average
| 1996 |
6.27 |
| 2002 |
8.09
|
| 2008 |
18.56 |
*Data collated from state government and police records
Challenges before the Government
The present government in Jammu and Kashmir has three important tasks ahead of it. The task of good governance is of immense significance to J&K, especially because of its disturbed climate. Good governance influences the response of the people particularly to the call of the separatists. The constraint that the government faces is the paucity of top-class administrators from the centre and within the state who are required for transforming resources into productive assets. Unlike other states, J&K does not face any financial crunch. While six years ago, the state had an annual plan of Rs 2500 crores, in the last year it rose to Rs 5500 crores. The estimate for this year is about Rs 8000 crores for a population of one crore.
Managing the security system is another persisting challenge. The situation has improved considerably since the peak of militancy in 1995 which recorded the maximum number of incidents at 5946, and the year 2001 was notorious for recoding the maximum number of security forces killed at 613, maximum number of terrorists killed at 2020 and the maximum infiltration at 3545. From 2003 onwards, the ratio between infiltration and attrition began to reverse, and since then there has been a marked improvement as reflected in the table below:
Number of incidents of infiltration
| 2003 |
1313 |
2004
|
516
|
2005
|
231
|
2006
|
691
|
2007
|
232
|
| 2008 |
126
|
Number of terrorists killed
| 2003 |
1494
|
| 2004 |
976
|
| 2005 |
970 |
| 2006 |
591
|
| 2007 |
474 |
| 2008 |
339 |
*Data collated from state government and police records
Notwithstanding the progress made, several issues need to be addressed by the state government, such as;reducing the visibility of security forces in the state; addressing concerns regarding the Armed Forces Special Powers Act; managing public perceptions and the media, which at times tend to lose control over itself; and neutralize the separatists particularly their leadership and structures. The government should be cautious in using draconian laws in countering violence and unlawful activities, and use the ordinary laws of the land The other concern is the lack of clarity in the central government’s stand on separatists. While they declare on the one hand that separatists do not have any place in J&K, yet. on the other hand, they also are willing to initiate a dialogue with them. Also, there is no any action against the frontline separatist leaders on lesser charges like non-payment of taxes and unaccounted accumulation of wealth. The government must look into these issues.
Some recommendations to the government would include evolving a consensus across political spectrum at the national level to deicide on some of the basic minimum common denominators of the policy that the centre has to follow for Jammu and Kashmir. There should be efforts made to mainstream the population of the Valley, conducting panchayat elections and the formation of informal groups at the center to advise on policy matters.
Discussion
Expansion of Salafi Madrassas
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Although an expansion did take place in the 1990s, currently this process appears to have stopped. Moreover, there has been an escalation in the establishment of private academies and institutions in both rural and urban areas, which have higher standards of teaching than the government institutions, and are secular in nature. The state government since 2002 has expanded educational institutions, and their consolidation is currently underway.
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Madrasas emerged in areas with a Muslim majority. The financial conditions of people need to be emphasized. Most of the problems in the Valley are created by people from outside the state, whether they be religious clerics or administrators. If the funding for Madrasas is received through proper channels, there would no scope for anxiety. The issue is whether Muslim radicalization in the Valley is a reaction to Hindu fundamentalism. It needs to be reiterated that the Amarnath yatra enjoys the support of local people in the Valley and has continued without any disturbance even during the height of agitation in the state. The rise in the number of pilgrims is welcomed by the Muslims of Pahalgam and nearby places since it improves their financial security.
Support for the Separatists
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Popular support to separatists cannot be assessed by individuals since the only proper means to assess their popular support is through elections. Separatists do not participate in elections. From Sajjad Lone’s electoral defeat, it is apparent that the separatists will not benefit from the electoral system.
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For addressing the lack of clarity in the government regarding the separatists, better coordination is required between different government departments, and the immunity enjoyed by them must be corrected by recourse to the law. This has in fact become a national trend or phenomenon, with that some people being above the law.
New trends in the Elections
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The most noteworthy development in the last elections in the state has been the rise in the number of votes favouring the BJP. The party has been able to make a huge dent in in Jammu because of religious polarization. This has a crippling effect on the state.
Demilitarization
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This is the right time for demilitarization. The state government has to work with the central government on this issue. At least one or two districts should be transferred to the state police.
Education
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The problem of leakage of resources is least in the education sector. The problem is with availability of man-power. The government has introduced a new scheme under which individuals of higher merit are given an honorarium for teaching and this is done through panchayats. Therefore, panchayati raj institutions have to be strengthened by timely elections, which the present government has promised to carry out.
Impact of Regional Issues on J&K
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Pakistan’s behaviour affects J&K only to the extent of the ceasefire agreement of 26 November 2003. Even so, with the prevailing security situation in the state, the ISI would be desperate to achieve a revival at the earliest. They are keeping the pot hot if not boiling. We must be cautious about home-grown terrorism. This could have an adverse effect on state security. The constitution of a Truth and Reconciliation Commission is viable if the state government wishes to settle the internal turbulence in the state.
Annapoorna Karthika
Research Intern, IPCS
Email: annapoorna@ipcs.org
