Indo-Pak - SEMINAR REPORT

Pakistan President General Pervez Musharraf’s Speech of 12 January 2002

Chair:PR Chari, Director IPCS

 
List of Participants: PR Chari, KK Mitra, AK Verma, AK Dave, Maj Gen Ashok Krishna (retd), Maj Gen Ramesh Chopra (retd), T. Ananthachari, Brig PS Malhan, I P Khosla, G Balachandran, Ram Mohan Rao, Sankar Sen, P K Dave, Kalim Bahadur, Col Sanjeev Chopra, Sonika Gupta, Arpit Rajain, Suba Chandran.
 
Chairman’s opening remarks

• General Musharraf’s speech was intended for three constituencies. In order of importance, they were his domestic constituency, the United States and finally, India .
• If General Musharraf is able to successfully implement the reforms announced, he would change the basic nature of Pakistan ’s polity. Since General Zia’s regime, the steady Islamization of Pakistan has become a threat to Pakistan ’s own viability and existence.
• His statement on Kashmir was on expected lines and the least that he could have said on the issue.
• Since India and Pakistan do not have an extradition treaty, Pakistan is not bound by law to hand over any of the 20 terrorists named by India , who are Pakistani nationals. Though in the 1987 SAARC summit the Convention on Terrorism was promulgated, it is not yet operational since members states have not made the required changes in their local laws for extradition to be legally effected. However, Pakistan might hand over some Indian nationals given shelter in Pakistan like the Khalistani terrorists.
• The troop deployment on the Indo-Pak border is expensive and cannot be indefinitely continued. The timing of the drawdown needs to be carefully arrived at, without reference to domestic political exigencies. International opinion has been disconcerted by this massive deployment and sees it as inimical to peace in the region. Its present support to India could erode with the passage of time.

The Chairman’s opening remarks were followed by a comprehensive discussion of General Musharraf’s speech and its impact on Indo-Pak relations. The attempt here is to notice the diverse opinions expressed on the various aspects of the current Indo-Pak situation.

Troop deployment

• This represents a combination of political, diplomatic and military pressure that has worked on Musharraf. India should keep up the military pressure on Pakistan until it takes some credible actions to fulfill the promises made by Musharraf.
• The Indian Army chief’s statements on troop deployment and the nuclear option were a part of the Indian effort to exert pressure on Pakistan .
• Troop withdrawal is a slow exercise, and the expectation of an immediate de-escalation would be unrealistic.
• India must use its present troop deployment to target groups like the Jaish-e- Mohammed (JeM), Al Badr and Lashkar-e Toiba (LeT).
• Military CBMs need to be initiated by negotiations between military officials to prevent escalation of the border situation.

Domestic situation in Pakistan

• Pakistan had created the jehadi machinery to wrest Kashmir from India . But they have turned out to be a nuisance for Pakistan itself. Musharraf wants to dismantle this machinery to clean up Pakistan polity.
• His reforms, if implemented, will have a significant impact on Pakistan ’s domestic situation, but not on its foreign policy. Kashmir will remain the central issue.
• The Pakistani Army is largely Islamized and domestic reforms may have no impact on it.
• Musharraf comes across as a liberal, but whether his future in Pakistan is secure is not clear. The reforms announced by him may not proceed if he is no longer in power.

National Committee on Kashmir

• The constituting of the National Committee on Kashmir is a positive step.  If the Committee wishes to have a dialogue with India , the government should encourage this initiative. It can contribute to a renewal of the political dialogue on Kashmir .
  

International Opinion

• The Kashmir dispute has been willy-nilly internationalized. World attention is focused on the happenings in Kashmir . There is also satellite surveillance of the military situation on the LoC and the international border.
• The US is playing a greater role in the Kashmir dispute. India has taken advantage of the US pressure on Pakistan to control cross-border terrorism in Kashmir .
• The nuclearization of India and Pakistan is the reason for world attention to be focused on Kashmir .

Situation in the Valley

• Musharraf’s speech has been widely welcomed in the Valley. Curbs on the LeT and the JeM bring hope for a reduction in militant violence in Kashmir .
• Farooq Abdullah, too, has asked that Musharraf be given time to prove the seriousness of his intent.
• The issue of governance in Kashmir is of equal importance and the State and Central governments should not ignore this aspect of the problem.
• Autonomy talks in Kashmir should be conducted only after elections are held there to express the will of the people.
• Dialogue with the representatives of the Kashmiri people must be initiated to stem their growing alienation from the government.
• Greater trade between Kashmir and the rest of India will improve the economic situation in Kashmir and facilitate greater economic integration.
• Rehabilitation of the Kashmiri Pandits is a neglected issue and needs to be vigourously pursued to reach any solution to the problem.

Miscellaneous

• In view of the close Sino-Pak ties, India needs to factor the China angle into any final resolution of the Kashmir dispute.
• There was no mention in Musharraf’s speech of the role of the ISI in abetting and organizing terrorist strikes in India .
• There is no effort by the government to educate the media on these important issues. Better media interaction is required for India to achieve its diplomatic and political objectives. Irresponsible statements in the media should be actively discouraged.