Reshmi Kazi and B Rajeshwari, Research Officer & Research Assistant, IPCS
Speakers: Prof C Raja Mohan,
Jyoti Malhotra,
Amb G Parthasarthy
Chair: Amb Eric Gonsalves
Ambassador Eric Gonsalves initiated the discussion emphasizing the impact of globalization on security relations between India and Pakistan. He mentioned two factors: confidence building measures and economic cooperation as important issues to address in order to build a better security environment that will facilitate the resolution of the Kashmir imbroglio.
C. Raja Mohan
C. Raja Mohan considered the Islamabad meeting as crucial since both India and Pakistan agreed to initiate discussions on a whole gamut of bilateral relations including Jammu & Kashmir (J&K). How to pursue this negotiation was the essence of the Islamabad summit. Many attempts have been made in recent years including talks at foreign secretaries’ levels and the Lahore and Agra summits. Though Lahore was a good beginning, events were overtaken by Kargil and the failure at Agra. The disagreements were mainly on three issues: how to consolidate the CBMs; how to initiate a dialogue on Kashmir; and how to prevent cross border terrorism.
The SAARC Summit in Islamabad and the follow up understanding between India and Pakistan are decisive moments in the sub-continent’s history. The reasons were: the effective political and goodwill gestures undertaken prior to the meeting by both; and the cease-fire across the LoC, which has prevailed now for over a month.
The main significance of the understanding reached in Islamabad, from an Indian perspective was that Kashmir was included in the context of the larger issues, at least on the textual side. Second, there has been a special emphasis on bilateral aspects. Enough hints were given from Pakistan rejecting third party involvement, including involving the United Nations. The Foreign Offices of both India and Pakistan have expressed their desire to resolve the Kashmir imbroglio bilaterally. Further, both sides have offered to strive to end terrorism and violence in Kashmir.
Future problems may arise as a consequence of the linkages between CBMs, Kashmir and cross border terrorism. Any negative development on one has the potential to affect others. Second, the impact of domestic backlash also needs to be taken into consideration. From an Indian perspective, the extent to which Musharraf can be trusted to deliver on his promise will remain an issue.
Talks with the Hurriyat were slated to begin on 22 January and which can provide a further impetus towards resolving of the Kashmir problem. Bus service from Srinagar to Muzaffarabad will be a further act of CBM that can accelerate the peace process. Economic cooperation between India and Pakistan will yet be another measure paying rich dividends towards peace and normalcy in bilateral relations.
India has provided an assurance that the process would be serious, sincere and sustained in relation to J&K. The Islamabad understanding is significant as it is the result of better preparations and back channel meetings facilitating a sound understanding between both sides prior to the summit. The previous summits – Agra and Lahore were essentially driven by the media.
One also cannot rule out the occurrence of any unexpected event within the political arena that might twist the ongoing process and setback the negotiations. It is also important to give adequate attention towards dealing with problems of CBMs and terrorism. While it is of utmost importance to focus on Kashmir related CBMs, it is equally important to dwell on other CBMs that can provide a positive framework to settle the Kashmir imbroglio.
Jyoti Malhotra
Jyoti Malhotra described the recent SAARC Summit as a decisive moment in sub-continental history. The reason being that effective measures, both political and goodwill gestures, have been undertaken by both India and Pakistan. There are two perceptions inside India on whether there has been a change in Pakistan’s thinking towards India and in particular towards Kashmir. The first perception considers that since 2003, events have taken a turn within the Pakistani civil society. The moderates have won over the extremists inside Pakistan and there has been a greater realization that Pakistan’s jihad policies have been the source of internal instability. Civil society at large is looking for peaceful relations with India and to resolve the conflict in Kashmir amicably. Vajpayee is seen by the Pakistanis as a sincere person who is genuinely looking for establishing peace.
The second perception is that Pakistan, a nation created on the two nation theory has inherent enmity and hatred towards India and would never live peacefully with its neighbour. An analysis of the Urdu media in Pakistan, especially in the Punjab suggests that this view enjoys wide support.
G. Parthasarthy
G. Parthasarthy stressed that greater flexibility in the conduct of our foreign policy was an urgent need for the resolution of Indo-Pak relations. First, caution needs to be taken in analyzing the situation. While it is wrong to be cynical, it would also be foolish not to distinguish between the strategic and the tactical. India should also look at current events in a wider context. It is important to be cautious and analyze the present situation in the backdrop of earlier attempts at peace. CBMs are significant part of the dialogue but loopholes in the process must not be ignored. Musharraf’s promises need to be taken with caution and India should wait till the snow melts to conclusively assess whether there has been a reduction in cross border movements. Inside Pakistan, only the elite section of the Army and the society is in agreement with Musharraf. Reactions of the Pakistani military have to be cautiously observed.
Second, both countries need to show greater flexibility, especially in improving people to people contacts. India could liberalize its visa regimes so that Pakistanis could visit India more frequently. Tourism should be opened up for integration between both countries. The bureaucracies in both India and Pakistan continue to be rigid and inflexible in their approach and this need to change.
Third, even though Pakistan’s economy performed better than India till the mid 1980’s, today it faces the adverse consequences of globalization to which it has inadequate response. Though current economic indicators are good, lack of investment and poor prospects of its trade provide major incentives for cooperation with India. SAFTA should be the beginning of a process to improve economic ties in the region.
Fourth, given the closer strategic relations between India and the United States and its continued interest and military presence in Pakistan, Washington’s role not as a mediator, but perhaps as a facilitator should be acceptable to both sides. Subsequent statements by Colin Powell have indeed suggested that such facilitation may well have been part of the agenda.
Fifth, Kashmir is an important part of the dialogue process. Compromises will ultimately be needed for a solution, but India should continue to build on its military strength and remain prepared to face any contingency. Both countries should also improve their linkages with the respective parts of J&K. India should also emphasize and highlight what is happening inside POK.
The overall assessment tended to suggest that the recent summit was merely a process that might lead to a breakthrough but was not a breakthrough in itself.
Discussion
- Is the peace process between India and Pakistan a Breakthrough? There is a need to analyze the peace process cautiously. The past failures should be taken into account but they should not be the basis for judging the present initiative. The overall assessment tended to suggest that the recent summit was merely a process that might lead to a breakthrough but was not a breakthrough in itself.
- Is there a Change in Pakistan’s Attitude towards India and Kashmir? There are two perceptions inside India on whether there has been a change in Pakistan’s perceptions towards India and in particular towards Kashmir. The first perception considers that since 2003, events have taken a turn within Pakistani civil society. Moderates have apparently won over the extremists and there is a greater realization that Pakistan’s jihad policies have been the source of internal instability. Women in Pakistan have realized that peace was important for development.
- The second perception is that Pakistan, a nation created on two nation theory has inherent enmity and hatred towards India and could never live peacefully with it. There was a difference in the attitude of the civil society in the seven districts where military was a strong factor. In these areas Kashmir was an important sentiment. Moreover, some sections of the Indian and the Pakistani press are extremist in their views and do not believe in peace. An analysis of the Urdu media in Pakistan, especially in the Punjab would prove that this intensity still remains and has not gone down.
- Kashmir is an important part of the dialogue process. Compromises will ultimately be needed for a solution, but India should continue to build on its military strength and remain prepared to face any contingency. Both countries should also improve their linkages with the respective parts of J&K. India should also emphasize and highlight what is happening inside POK
- Even though Pakistan’s economy performed better than India till the mid 1980’s, today it faces adverse consequences of globalization to which it has inadequate response. Though current economic indicators are good, lack of investment and poor prospects of its trade provide major incentives for cooperation with India. SAFTA should be the beginning of a process to improve economic ties in the region and particularly with Pakistan.
- What interest does the United States have in India-Pakistan Peace? United States’ growing trade relations with India and its interest in Pakistan for dealing with Afghanistan could be used as factors to improve India-Pakistan relations. Though the United States had hegemonic interest, it should be used positively by both India and Pakistan.
- Can the Military be trusted in Pakistan? The attitude of the Military towards India has to be seen with skepticism. It was only the elite section of the Army, which was in agreement with Musharraf. The Pakistani Military has to be more cautiously observed. Moreover, it will take some time for the conservative group in the Army to think positively of the peace process.
- It is essential to maintain the momentum of peace process through Confidence Building Measures like People to People contact, development of tourism and liberal visa regimes.
