Pakistan Elections 2008: Implications for Pakistan and India
Chair: Amb Eric Gonsalves
Speakers: Prof Kalim Bahadur, Mr P R Chari, Dr D Suba Chandran
Prof Kalim Bahadur
The biggest question facing the new government in Pakistan is whether it would be able to clean up the mess left by the Musharraf government. What will the government do? What are the tasks faced by it? The mess created -constitutional, political, and economic -is so huge that it will be a challenge to any party that forms the government in Pakistan.
No party has secured a majority, nevertheless, it is clear that the PPP will be able to form the government supported by PML-N and the ANP. This is where the problem starts. The history and ideology of PPP is entirely different from that of PML-N. In the euphoria of Musharraf's defeat, both the parties appear to be friendly. However, differences have cropped up over some important issues. For example, Asif Zardari has stated that he is willing to work with Musharraf, whereas Nawaz Sharif has repeatedly said that he wants Musharraf removed.
On the other hand, the United States has not given up on Musharraf. They do not want Nawaz Sharif to be part of the government because he is suspected of having links with militants. Musharraf, on the other hand, continues to retain power under Article 58 b (2) which indemnifies the military government for whatever they have done in their regime and grants him the power to dismiss the National Assembly. Musharraf has not shown any inclination to step down. So what can Musharraf do apart from dissolving the parliament? What is his relationship with the army? What action will the Army take if there is another crisis in Pakistan?
General Kayani has given some positive indications, however, only for cosmetic effects. He has withdrawn army officers who had been deputed to civilian jobs. In a way, this is a confidence building measure because the army has been severely criticized. In the case of a deadlock, that affects the institutional interest of the military, the army is likely to take power again. The Americans are still calling the shots as far as Asif Zardari is concerned and this is one of the many difficulties in forming a government that includes Asif Zardari and Nawaz Sharif.
What will happen to the democratic process in this situation? If Musharraf has the upper hand, then it will not be restored and, even if restored, it will be heavily restricted and controlled. Given the American hold on the Pakistan army, Musharraf is not likely to go easily. Pakistan is still not out of crisis, and it will take some more crises for Pakistan to return to normalcy.
P R Chari
Overall, the elections results reflect a negative vote against the PML-Q and Musharraf. In totality there is a confusing political scene emerging in Pakistan; therefore, a coalition party in the National Assembly and coalition governments in the Punjab and the NWFP can be anticipated. The province to watch is Balochistan because there is some information to the effect that the Jamait-ul-Dawa- the former Lashkar-e-Taiba, is shifting its base to Balochistan.
Whoever forms the coalition government has to respect the institutional requirements of both the Pakistan army and the United States. Ultimately, the good old troika will get established. There will be a President in a civilian avatar, a PPP led coalition government, and the Pakistan army will remain in the barracks, which is only a tactical retreat. If history be any guide, the Pakistan army has always gone back to the barracks to refurbish its image by pretending to be neutral.
As far as Islamabad is concerned, the challenges will be
To manage this uneasy troika of disparate forces;
To strengthen democratic institutions and manage Islamic fundamentalism;
To rejuvenate the economy;
To stabilize the internal situation because the present situation in Pakistan is alarming. 60 per cent of its land area is out of Central control, the Pushtun revolt on both sides of the Pak-Afghan border is acute, and is spreading into the NWFP and Punjab
With respect to the implications of these developments for India, the question arises: Who will deal with issues critical to India? Who will deal with matters relating to Jammu and Kashmir? Will the President and army continue to pull the strings from behind the scene or would there be a greater civilian assertion? Going by recent history, both military and civilian leaders have been equally good and bad vis-Ã -vis India, depending upon their political interests.
India's interests lie in a stable Pakistan, the consequences of an unstable Pakistan would be detrimental to India. First, the Jihadis could be encouraged by an unstable government to deflect attention from its domestic problems. Second, it could trigger refugee movements into India. Third, there is the ever present danger of nuclear weapons going out of Central control.
In conclusion, the post-election scenario is confused and civilian governments will take time to stabilize in Pakistan. India's policy should be to let the government settle down; India cannot stabilize Pakistan at the present juncture. At the appropriate time, firstly the peace process should be rejuvenated. Secondly, already fixed meetings should be proceeded with because it is very important to maintain the routine to sustain this process. Thirdly, non-controversial CBMs like promoting greater people-to-people contacts, issuing visas more freely for travelers, ensuring convenient travel schedules, and ensuring better connectivity should be promoted.
D Suba Chandran
2008 elections: Three major success stories
The return of the PPP as a national party
From 1997 to 2002 the PPP had almost become a regional (Sindhi) party. Today, along with PML-Q, the PPP is the only party to have seats in all the provinces to msn the National Assembly, and also a substantial number of seats for the provincial assemblies. It won 45 seats from Punjab and its performance in NWFP has been incredible where it won 10 seats for the NA.
Resurrection of PML-N
The much talked about sympathy wave was in favour of Nawaz Sharif instead of the PPP, because most of the votes won by the PPP have been from its stronghold of Sindh. In Punjab, Nawaz Sharif fought, not only Musharraf, but also the PML-Q and the Nazims. Despite all odds, Nazwaz Sharif performed creditably in Punjab, with no sympathy wave whatsoever.
The Performance of ANP and MQM
The ANP is most likely to form the government in the NWFP where it has won 10 seats for the NA. Before the elections there was a lot of anti-Mushaaraf and anti-American sentiments among the Pashtuns who were expected to vote for the MMA, which did not happen; instead the ANP won most of the seats. Then there is the MQM, the only party to have won, despite being part of the previous government. The MQM has won more seats for the NA than in 2002. It has retained its hold in urban Sindh, especially in Karachi.
2008 elections: Three (plus one) Major Failures
Allah
The performance of religious parties i.e. the MMA's fall from 60 seats in 2002 to 6 seats both in the NA and provincial assemblies has been the biggest failure story. The decision by JI to boycott the elections affected the MMA's fortunes. but they could not get even half the votes they had won in 2002 in NWFP.
Army
In terms of strengthening the military regime, Musharraf's plans failed. General Kayani played a role in this, albeit tactical, by detaching the army from politics. He ordered the removal of military officers who were a part of the civilian government. He also promised that the army would not interfere in the election results. The public image of the Pakistan army has never been so bad, prompting General Kayani to try and refurbish the army's image.
America
Whatever the United States planned vis-Ã -vis the next government never materialized - from pressuring Musharraf to work with Benazir Bhutto to her assassination in December 2007. More importantly, the US did not want Nawaz Sharif to make such a huge comeback.
Failure of PML-Q
The PML-Q suffered a significant setback with 22 of its cabinet ministers losing in the elections. In terms of numbers however the PML-Q secured almost the same number of votes as in 2002, which could be due to the Nazims and pre-election rigging. However, it has won seats in all the four provinces. What will be the future of PML-Q? It may die a natural death before the next election with more number of people deserting the party, unless something dramatic happens.
DISCUSSION
Comments
The success of the ANP in the elections was largely due to its grass root support in the NWFP. The fundamentalists realized this, and therefore many ANP rallies were targeted in the run up to the elections.
Parties like the ANP and the MQM are not just regional parties but also national parties, for they profess a national ideology. Moreover, both parties contested the elections from all the four provinces of Pakistan. Therefore, they cannot be called regional parties.
Rigging these elections has been possible due to the inaccessibility of some constituencies. In highly inaccessible constituencies like Dera Bugti, which is also the seat of the late Nawab Bugti, there was a fair amount of rigging on the polling day. Moreover, in some seats polling was less than 10 percent.
Significantly, though the verdict has been largely anti-Musharraf, the leadership at the higher levels of the military hierarchy remains loyal to Musharraf. General Kayani is their contemporary and is treated like one by the military. Till General Kayani replaces officers in the higher echelons, he will have little power to bring about substantial changes.
While the PPP emerged as the largest party in the elections, it failed to cash in on any sympathy wave to secure a clear majority. In Rawalpindi, where Benazir Bhutto was assassinated, PPP managed to win only 1 seat out of the 7 it contested for the Punjab assembly. This can be explained partly because of the anti-Benazir sentiment created due to her pact with Musharraf. Had Benazir not been assassinated, the verdict would have tilted further against the PPP, and in favour of PML-N.
In what context is the performance of the army, Allah and America being termed as failures? Seen from the Pakistani point of view, the defeat of the American policy is a successful culmination of the anti-American sentiment within Pakistan. Alternatively, if seen from the American perspective, the entire electoral process in Pakistan was orchestrated to ensure that the PPP and Zardari would come back to power. Seen in this light, American policy succeeded in defeating the religious parties and bringing the PPP back to power.
For the first time four different political parties have secured the majority in the four provinces. Most of them are agreed on enlarging provincial autonomy. If the political process is allowed to continue, a truly federal structure will emerge in Pakistan. As far as governance is concerned, it will take a few years before they start governing, because the first two years will be spent undoing what has happened in the last eight years.
As far the United States is concerned, the three parties which have come together may not have overtly stated it, but all of them are willing to toe the US line. If a federal structure emerges and each province enjoys more autonomy, extremism may get subdued because ethno-nationalism has always countered religious fundamentalism in Pakistan. In fact, the Islamic ideal was propagated by the military to counter ethnic identities; so if ethnic identities emerge again, fundamentalism will take a backseat.
There is no such thing as a Pakistan army that is not political. Its interests across Pakistan are so deep and involvement so pervasive that its role will continue.
The American interests are so deeply embedded in Pakistan vis-à-vis Afghanistan and Central Asia that they will lose heavily if they do not continue to invest in Pakistan. Whether it has a democratic or military government is immaterial, the US will continue to invest in Pakistan. Moreover, Pakistan is highly dependent on the US for economic aid, therefore any political party that forms the government will have close relations with the US.
The MMA has been wiped out; however, the Jihadis are still there. The NWFP, FATA and Balochistan will not be affected by the MMA's loss; the resurgence of suicide attacks in Balochistan is an indication that the Jihadis cannot be wished away. Will the Pakistan army go after the Jihadis? Can they reject American aid? If the answers are positive then Pakistan will see a new situation, else the crisis will remain.
Should India carry out any change in its policies? If Musharraf gets back his powers then the status quo remains. As regards the security situation, the overall direction of India-Pakistan dialogue is not negative. However the concern is that if Zardari and Nawaz do not reach a consensus on the India-Pakistan dialogue then what can India do to assure Pakistan that the peace process is maintained at the present level or given a fillip? Pakistan has also realized that in order to improve its economy, India cannot be kept out of its orbit. So how can India use economic leverages to encourage better relations?
The Pakistan army is one of the best in the world when it comes to fomenting insurgency but the worst to fight it. They have now realized that there is a national problem in fighting fundamentalism. Therefore, is India ready to reduce the pressure on its western borders for the Pakistan army to do their task elsewhere?
Responses
Rigging started long before the elections and centred around the activities of the Nazims who were the nominees of the PML-Q. In addition, the caretaker governments, supposed to be neutral, were taking decisions as if they were the representatives of elected governments.
The success and failure stories are purely from the actors' perspective, whether they achieved what they had planned for is another matter. The US or the PML-Q or the MMA have all failed because they were not able to achieve what they wanted.
In terms of votes the PML-Q has won the same number of votes as in 2002. This has been possible because of rigging.
ANP and MQM cannot be termed national parties because it is not about how many places they contested from but about how many seats they finally won. Although MQM contested in Punjab and the NWFP, it could not win a single seat in these provinces, whereas it has successfully retained its vote bank in Sindh.
The US had a script in mind when they pressurized Musharraf to allow Benazir to come back for the reason that it wanted to recreate the troika. The US wanted Musharraf to continue as the President and remain committed to the Global War on Terror. General Kayani, considered to be non-political, was to keep the army out of politics. However, Benazir's assassination upset the script.
None of the parties have spoken about the policies they are likely to adopt to tackle militancy, sectarian and religious violence. The economy is in the doldrums; there is a severe shortage of wheat. But none of them have spoken so far about the policies they would adopt to deal with these economic and social problems. In addition, what will be their attitude towards India and Kashmir? Much will depend on how the coalition works, but both the PPP and PML-N have very poor administrative records. Both have damaged judicial and democratic institutions when they were in power.
To the extent that the Indian establishment wants to have stability, Musharraf's continuance will definitely be positive. Musharraf is dispensable for the US and India. Whether he continues will depend on of whether the establishment in Pakistan needs him or not and how he makes himself dispensable or indispensable. This is something India has very little capacity to influence, unlike the Americans.
All of today's ills in Balochistan and the NWFP started with the 2002 elections in which the mainstream and regional parties were sidelined. Now they are back in the NWFP; however, political simmering will continue in these provinces.
India never raised its voice regarding the situation in the Northern Areas in the last five years. Musharraf is changing the administrative, demographic, and sectarian nature of the NA which legitimately belongs to India. Therefore, it is not a fair expectation that India should make statements vis-Ã -vis India Pakistan's internal situation.
The real issues for the PPP and PML-N or whoever forms the government is the restoration of the judiciary and the removal of Musharraf. The PPP is going slow on both these issues whereas the PML-N manifesto has stated that these two are its main objectives. How much they would cooperate and compromise with each other will underline the stability of their coalition. Conversely, the restoration of the judiciary is a myth because whatever has happened in the last three-four years is because of one person's assertion i.e. Chief Justice Iftekhar Chowdhury. So restoration of the judiciary essentially means putting Iftekhar Chowdhury back as the Chief Justice of Supreme Court.
Whenever they are in trouble, the political parties in Pakistan and the army turn towards religion and religious fundamentalism to deflect attention. Alternatively, whenever the Pakistan polity is in difficulty, both the politicians and the Pakistani population have turned towards the Pakistan army. It only means reversing the trends, as far as the Pakistan polity and military are concerned. They no longer think of insurgency being used as a tool of their foreign policy, now that they themselves are suffering from the blowback of their own actions.
The Americans will not support insurgency being used as a tool in Pakistan's foreign policy, because it will affect their Global War on Terrorism. The benefit for India is that, although insurgency in J&K will not end completely, it will not have any official sponsorship.
