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IPCS Forecast Series
9 February 2015,1400-1700 hrs

West Asia and the Islamic State: In 2015
Release and Review of two IPCS reports in collaboration with India International Centre

Nepal and Bangladesh
Release and Review of two IPCS reports in collaboration with India International Centre

Venue: Lecture Room-I, IIC, New Delhi


As part of its Forecast Series IPCS, in collaboration with the India International Centre, has published five projections on the likely trends and events to occur 2015. The papers covered were West Asia (by Amb. Ranjit Gupta), the Islamic State (by Rajeshwari Krishnamurthy), the prospects of the negotiations over Iran’s nuclear capacities (by Ruhee Neog), the situation in Bangladesh (by Prof. Delwar Hossain) and in Nepal (by Pramod Jaiswal). These papers were put before two expert panels to review and critique on the afternoon of 9 February 2015.

The first panel consisted of Amb. Ishrat Aziz and Prof. Anwar Alam, with Mr Rana Banerji as Chair, who discussed extensively with the authors the situation within Saudi Arabia and the dynamics of the royal succession, the possibility of Israel playing a spoiler to any deal between the US and Iran, the extent that ISIS could be a threat or defeated, the similarities between ISIS’s actions and other states throughout the region, the rise of Iran as a stable regional power and the likely problems facing region from the ‘fractured’ Yemen, Syria and Iraq.

The second panel consisted of Amb. Pinak Ranjan Chakravarty and Maj Gen (retired) Ashok Mehta, with Amb. Deb Mukharji as Chair, who discussed with the authors the causes behind the increasing street violence in Bangladesh and the like outcomes of this in 2015, the extent that the domestic political turmoil would impact external relations and investment in Bangladesh, the likely continuation of the political deadlock in Nepal and the extent that external powers, especially India, can play in resolving it. Both sessions were followed by response by questions from the audience answered by the authors and panel members.


The Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies (IPCS) is the premier South Asian think tank which conducts independent research on and provides an in depth analysis of conventional and non-conventional issues related to national and South Asian security including nuclear issues, disarmament, non-proliferation, weapons of mass destruction, the war on terrorism, counter terrorism , strategies security sector reforms, and armed conflict and peace processes in the region.

For those in South Asia and elsewhere, the IPCS website provides a comprehensive analysis of the happenings within India with a special focus on Jammu and Kashmir and Naxalite Violence. Our research promotes greater understanding of India's foreign policy especially India-China relations, India's relations with SAARC countries and South East Asia.

Through close interaction with leading strategic thinkers, former members of the Indian Administrative Service, the Foreign Service and the three wings of the Armed Forces - the Indian Army, Indian Navy, and Indian Air Force, - the academic community as well as the media, the IPCS has contributed considerably to the strategic discourse in India.

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