US & South Asia - Articles

President Obama and the Challenges of our Times

History was made in the USA on 20 January 2009 with Barrack Hussein Obama becoming its 44th President. The enormity of this achievement can be appreciated only in the context of the status of African Americans in the country till barely six decades ago when a dark-skinned person would not have even been served in a Washington restaurant; where the deep racial divides in the nation some forty years ago led Martin Luther King to deliver his "I have a dream speech," barely three kilometers from the swearing-in ceremony at the Lincoln Memorial. This ceremony and the celebrations are a tribute not only to the extraordinary man that Obama is, but also to the genius of America and its people.

It was the culmination also of a remarkable democratic process. Complex, expensive, idiosyncratic, yet it was enormously participatory and vibrant. With the sun shining brightly in the cold winter morning on the Washington Mall well over two million people may have gathered to participate in its final moments. But the event was significant well beyond America's borders where TV viewers around the world remained glued to their sets.

Obama's Presidential address was a hard-hitting policy speech, full of the challenges the nation faces and recipes on how these will be met. He is without doubt, the most eloquent and gifted speaker of our times and his choice of words can thrill and enthrall as well as inspire to action. Let us not forget that it was this exceptional gift and his message of "change" and "yes, we can" spirit that won him the Presidency. Of course, George W Bush's enormous ineptitude contributed in no small measure.

There is high expectation within the country and around the globe from his Presidency, hope that this fresh young leader will somehow turn the world around from the near calamitous conditions it confronts and that all the accumulated problems of the past several years will somehow vanish under his energetic leadership and bold action. There is little doubt that the next 100 days will see the most intense, far-reaching and major executive activity ever in the history of the US and perhaps anywhere else in the world. Before these sweep us off our feet, let us also accept that the challenges too are enormous.

Let us not forget that the world in the second decade of the twenty first century will be quite different even from the recent past. The unipolar moment, that perhaps prevailed for a decade and a half has truly passed. New power centres now compete for greater share in global governance. The global economic meltdown has resulted in a serious weakening of the US economy and it will be decades before current debts can be realized. Even though this has hurt all economies in the world, the US has been hurt more and China perhaps the least among major economies. The moral high ground and soft power that were the hallmarks of US global influence now stand severely eroded. US infrastructure today is second class. Its education system remains flawed, even though its universities are still among the best. It is only in its military capability that US dominates the world. But, ill-judged and worse, poorly-implemented application of force have exposed the limitations and the ineffectiveness of even this capability.

The major malaise of the US still lies within. The venality and corruption of its financial systems have exposed the US for all its enormous capabilities as little more effective than a third world power. To identify the many ills and rectify the systems will take enormous time and effort that will not allow the US to reassume its world leadership in any significant manner in the near future. Quite wisely Obama has promised cooperation and engagement rather than preemptive unilateral action in the future, but the bid for support will be from a position of weakness. Hence, the withdrawal from Iraq will surely be speeded up. But, the worsening situation in West Asia including Palestine, will not allow for "claiming victory." The crucial foreign policy and security challenges will be in dealing with Afghanistan/Pakistan. No matter what efforts are made in Afghanistan, it is difficult to see how a 'lost' war can be won, when the resources are so limited. There are not too many good cards on the table. There is too much at stake to allow a withdrawal from here and it is too expensive to pursue a fruitless war. No matter what is tried, given the reality of the situation Afghanistan/Pakistan will probably prove to be Obama's Waterloo.

For India alas, the love fest with the US is probably over even though, let me quickly add, the substantive achievements of the past cannot be undone. However, the question of Kashmir and proliferation issues are both likely to come up in some form or the other and even if these do not impede relations, will probably put some sort of a brake to future progress.

No matter what, the first hundred days will prove interesting.