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East Asia Diary - November 2004: The US Presidential Elections and the East Asian Response

It was only half in jest that many political commentators the world over asked that non-Americans also be allowed to vote for the US president this year. That this individual's decisions often have greater consequences for other countries and their citizens than on Americans themselves, was a fact that East Asia understood quite well.

After appearing inclined toward George W Bush, China seemed to switch sides and with rather bad timing, with a hard-hitting piece by the former Vice-Premier and Foreign Minister, Qian Qichen, in the China Daily on 1 November. As a key player who worked to mend the American relationship following Tiananmen in 1989, Qian's views and their timing are significant and worth careful consideration. "US Strategy to Be Blamed" accused the Americans of "arrogance" and not changing their "Cold War mentality" and suggested that the strategy of pre-emption would only bring about the "absolute insecurity of the 'American Empire' and its demise because of expansion it cannot cope with".

A reaction in The Japan Times wondered whether the Chinese government had put its money on John Kerry and forwarded a number of conspiracy theories to boot. Nevertheless, Qian's article - since pulled offline by China Daily - sounded much more a plea to the US to reform its ways so that the two countries could move closer in partnership. A plummeting American world image and unstable international situation reflect also on the partnership and China's image. As pretender to the crown of world superpower, it certainly does not want to have to clean up after the US.

A People's Daily opinion of the same day, that went comparatively unnoticed, is equally relevant to the point Qian was trying to make. The essay, "If Bush wins, neocons win", in its analyses of the split within the American conservative camp, pointed to the another aspect of the Chinese problem - whether the US sinks deeper into the quagmire of Iraq or finds a face-saving equilibrium, neo-conservative targets can only expand and eventually focus on China. The article seemed, therefore, to convey a panacea for the Iraq crisis and the "China threat" syndrome - get rid of the neo-conservatives, but not necessarily Bush. Whether this hope has been belied by the composition of the new Bush team, is too early to say.. In any case, China has sought to hedge its bets by feeding its people on anti-American vitriol and encouraging them to think of and strive towards their own "manifest destiny".

In Japan, the Bush-Koizumi relationship is beginning to take on shades of the close relationship between Ronald Reagan and Yasuhiro Nakasone in the 1980s. Not surprisingly, but against the grain of public sentiment, Koizumi and his aides publicly expressed support for Bush before the domestic backlash forced the government to tone down. The first Bush term gave the Koizumi government the opportunity to pursue its agenda of "normalization".. In addition, there are the continuing, even increasing, tensions with China and on the North Korean nuclear issue. The Koizumi government perceives the Republicans' essentially hard line positions on both countries as beneficial to Japan in the long run and therefore, desire to influence matters by being unambiguous in its support for Bush. It also helps that the LDP and the Republican Party have traditionally had close ties. The Japanese public, meanwhile, continues to be vociferous in its opposition to the invasion of Iraq and the US position on the Kyoto Protocol.

There was no such disjoint between the government and the public in South Korea, where Bush was considered too ready to take extreme steps against North Korea. But with the Bush reelection, President Roh Moo-hyun, in the words of The Korea Times, had "little choice but to hide any disappointment".. The South Korean dilemma over US troop relocation will also continue reflecting the fact that US troop presence on its soil is both a card to be used with the Americans and against the North Koreans as well as a provocation to the latter complicating the unification process.

For the Taiwanese government, the return of Bush is welcome - the Republicans have always been trusted to come down on the side of Taiwan. The exit of Colin Powell - known for his so-called "gaffes" on Taiwan's sovereignty - as Secretary of State, to be replaced by Condoleeza Rice is perhaps an added bonus, though it is not entirely certain that she will stand for Chen Shui-bian's propensity for loose cannoning on the sovereignty issue.

North Korea now, has to pick up on the six-party talks, distasteful as the prospect may seem of dealing again with a Bush administration. However, despite the American personnel changes, there could continue to be some leeway for North Korea given the apparent credibility of its threat and that its neighbours are not in favour of a military solution to the problem.

East Asia perhaps reflected more closely, the divided electorate in the US, than other parts of the world. Qian Qichen's challenge that "[t]he 21st century is not the 'American Century' ", must be seen in the light of the see-saw of increasing rivalries as well as expanding cooperation between the countries in the region. It acknowledges also the continuing key American role in deciding who in East Asia will eventually shape the "East Asian Century".