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#1794, 15 July 2005

From Ayodhya to London - II:

Rohit Honawar
Research Officer, IPCS

If there is anything to be learnt from the attacks at Ayodhya and London, it is that contrary to the belief held by the United States and its allies, Al Qaeda is very much active and possibly deeply embedded in the West. If this is indeed the case, it would expose gaping holes in the credibility of US intelligence, which had assumed the absence of Al Qaeda-linked terrorist activity in the West - particularly in the US - to its ability to successfully dismantle the groups' infrastructure.

A worrying possibility for authorities in India and the UK is that the attacks are a warning of things to come. Intelligence reports in India suggest that the attack on Ayodhya was a precursor to future acts of terrorism, with the Indian Military Academy (IMA), National Defence Academy (NDA) and Infosys being potential targets. Similarly, law enforcement agencies in Britain suspect that the London bombings were a warning against future attacks. There is a possibility that while the attacks were intended to cause loss of life and devastation, the broader goal was to warn the British government to reconsider its foreign policy, with specific reference to troops in Iraq. The added factor, that the bombings were indeed suicide attacks, poses a new set of challenges for authorities. Not only were the attacks a first of its kind, but the likelihood of a mastermind still living on British soil is a chilling prospect for Tony Blair's government. The 'success' of the suicide attacks could spur more copycat bombings in Britain, and with the authorities not being aware of the depth of the terror network, the possibility of sleeper cells awaiting orders is very real.

The events which transpired on the 5 July and 7 July, 2005 led to a considerable loss of life and property. However, the political ramifications of these acts of terrorism might yet be waiting to unfold. Ayodhya has been embroiled in religious-political turmoil since the demolition of the Babri Masjid in 1992. What followed was widespread communal violence that left scores of people dead or wounded. Fearing a repeat of the 1992 violence, Congress President Sonia Gandhi was quick to issue a statement warning "those who intended to play politics" over the issue. She asserted that India's communal harmony would be put in grave danger. The VHP-sponsored nationwide bandh to protest the attack evoked a fairly poor response, with most states reporting peaceful demonstrations. While the attack on Ayodhya has passed the initial test of maintaining communal amity, the BJP's persistence to politicize the issue could well provide hope to terrorist groups to revive future operations in India.

Not far from, but from a different political angle, the attacks in London could prove to have far reaching political consequences for the Blair government and British society. Tony Blair's consistent and staunch support to the 'war on terror' has seen him become increasingly unpopular in Britain and in the Arab world. Often labelled as US President Bush's poodle, Blair has received severe criticism from opposition party members; who have argued that British military presence in Iraq has increased the threat of terrorist attacks in the UK. While majority of Britons are rallying behind their leader at this time of need, there are indications that the bombings could take a political toll and may force a restructuring of policies within Blair's Cabinet. As Britain recovers from the tragic events, many people will be examining the link between UK's presence in Iraq and the London bombings.

The attack on Ayodhya, as with most other acts of terrorism carried out on Indian soil, has been a mere blip on the international stage and received little, if any media coverage. Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's presence at the G8 Summit, coupled with the London bomb attacks would have aided India's efforts at highlighting its plight to an otherwise disinterested audience. Not to take anything away from the tragic events that unfolded in London earlier this month, but the attack which occurred at Ayodhya two days earlier left five terrorists dead and had the potential of wreaking chaos in the country. India has been at the receiving end of terrorist violence for several decades, with the international community and the local populace taking little notice. A bomb blast in Srinagar on 14 June, 2005 left 15 people dead and wounded more than 100. While the blast was not on the same scale as the London tragedy, it is one example of terrorist related incidents which go unnoticed on the international stage and in suburban India. On the same note, the London blasts' domination over national and international media was such that 'desperate' relatives from India were congesting phone lines to England. In a ten year span from 1994-2004, 19,141 civilians and 7,102 security force personnel have lost their lives at the hands of terrorists in India. The lives lost and the sacrifices made in our 'war on terror' is greater than any other country, and so, in the words of Winston Churchill, "Lest we Forget".

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The Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies (IPCS) is the premier South Asian think tank which conducts independent research on and provides an in depth analysis of conventional and non-conventional issues related to national and South Asian security including nuclear issues, disarmament, non-proliferation, weapons of mass destruction, the war on terrorism, counter terrorism , strategies security sector reforms, and armed conflict and peace processes in the region.

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