Terrorism - Articles

Abu Musab Al - Zarqawi: Iraq upshot

It's unlikely Goethe would have predicted today's terror theatre when he remarked "Patriotism ruins History". However history is shaped by numerous events and the death of Abu Musab Al - Zarqawi is one of them. Whether he can lay claim to have been patriotic for his own reasons remains highly equivocal, his legacy will definitely hyphenate Iraq with the chronicles of a fallen nation.

Abu Musab Al - Zarqawi, the Jordanian supreme of Al - Qaeda in Iraq was killed by an air strike on June 7, 2006. The most wanted man in Iraq, carrying a $25 million bounty was hailed for spiraling violence in Iraq. With reports surfacing about him being the architect of numerous bombings, kidnappings and beheadings in Iraq, analysts are debating the prospects of peace in Iraq following his death. The fact that sectarian violence had emerged prominently due to Zarqawi's Jihad, Iraq is positive that his death would reduce insurgency. However, the hostility amongst Shias and Sunnis was rife early on, since their beliefs collided after the death of Prophet Muhammad. Zarqawi was only a proponent of one the sects and his death is not likely to ease Iraq's woe.

While one has to acknowledge America's strategic success, its imperative to note that a change in leadership could bring about a change in strategy that the insurgents or Al - Qaeda would pursue in Iraq in the coming days. In the recent past there were reports of a Zarqawi - Al Qaeda divide as a result of Zarqawi's violence against the Shias. Zarqawi was also accused of diluting Al - Qaeda's principle anti United States line by following an independent agenda of attacking the Shias, which affected Al - Qaeda's coordination with the Shia entities. While his replacement could be a commander who would adhere by Qaeda's mission of attacking the US and its supported regimes, rather than target fellow Muslims, there is no doubt Zarqawi gave Al - Qaeda a new connotation in Iraq. Furthermore, considering Al - Qaeda as more of a movement than an hierarchical corporate body, its not going to be easy for Bin Laden to fill the power vacuum. Although Abu Hamza al-Muhajer has been named as the new leader, its yet to be seen if he can prove to be an equally viable force as Zarqawi.

In the past, the response to the death of crucial commanders has been varied. Khattab's death was a blow to the Chechen rebels, nevertheless the dissension continues. Israel is an another paradigm where continued efforts to decapitate the Hamas or the Hezbollah have so far been thwarted. Once a movement gains initial momentum, there will be no dearth of young leaders ready to don the mantle. In Zarqawi's case, his death might only change the tactics with insurgents attacking the security forces rather than targeting civilians. This again highlights the main issue of sectarian divisions between the Shiite, Sunni, and Kurdish people which is the real conundrum in Iraq that must be resolved for the nation to achieve freedom and democracy.

Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki appointed his ministers of interior, defense and national security hours after Zarqawi's death. By doing this al-Maliki may have demonstrated his preference for someone who is hard on security, but to steer his country away from the threat of a civil war between the Shia and the Sunni Muslims will prove to be an Herculean task. Violence in Baghdad is unfolding quickly with hundreds being killed each week, and the crack between the two communities is only becoming wider. Zarqawi's death might only bring in a brief solace, but definitely not an end to the insurgency.

Parallels can be drawn to Saddam's capture wherein such glorious moments fade quickly and violence continues again in a protracted war. The need in Iraq is an effective government backed by postwar or exit policies by the Bush administration. Zarqawi's group represented only a small percentage of the insurgency, which means Iraq has to look beyond the celebrations of his death and work on incorporating of the Sunni population into the political process. Washington, on the other hand, knows well that its war on terror is far from being over. It might only give Bush, the much required boost in the opinion polls. Even as the question of bringing the troops home remains unanswered, Washington is holding on to its political victory as well as its attempt to promote democracy in Iraq.

An escalation in violence as a direct response to Zarqawi's death can also be ruled out for the reason that these attacks are usually well planned in advance. On the other hand the road to peace in Iraq depends on the overall resilience of the insurgency in Iraq and the ability of the Iraqi government to undermine this resilience. Until then one can speculate about who gets the $25 million.