With the Hizbul Mujahideen (HuM), the most powerful militant outfit in
Kashmir
announcing a cease-fire for three months and the Indian government also responding to it positively, what are the implications of this latest development?
A major implication will be on the law and order situation in
Kashmir
. In the long run, the cease-fire is bound to reduce militant activities in the State. The other militant groups, being comprised, mainly of the foreign elements, needs the support of the local militants for their movement, intelligence and to carryout strikes. The foreign militants also need the support the local people. They may not be willing to help the foreigners and are known to resent their presence. There were many incidents in which the foreign militants abused the local population and the latter in turn have either directly attacked them or informed the Indian security forces about their presence. With the local population being hostile and the HuM deciding to give peace a chance, the other militant groups may not be able to move about freely within the State. This would enable the law and order situation to improve over the long run. Besides, the HuM is more significant than the other groups, as it has at least six “squads” to lay mines and Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs), whose cadres have been highly trained in the use of explosives. Thus the cease-fire will lead to a decline in number of attacks, and their intensity.
In the short run, however, there would be an increase in attacks, as the other militant groups have to prove that, despite the HuM’s offer peace will not return to
Kashmir
. These groups may also increase their attacks on security forces and installations or other communities to increase communal tension and delay the peace process. The August 2 killings, in which nearly 100 people were killed in areas around Pahalgam, Anantnag and Kalaroos, for example, have raised doubts, in this regard. Besides, such attacks are bound to increase the response from the Indian security forces, which could affect any understanding reached between the government and the HuM.
Another implication will be on the efforts to start a dialogue between the APHC and the Central government. With the HuM declaring a cease-fire, there is no serious threat from the militant groups to any such dialogue. The APHC also could not force the Centre that any failure in negotiations with it would increase the role of the militants in terms of their activities and the popular support to them. The cease-fire is a golden opportunity to the Centre to hold a dialogue with the APHC, without the militant threat. The Hurriyat leaders understand this reality, which is why they are not happy with the independent announcement by the HuM, without consulting them. In fact, they would have been happy, had the HuM consulted them before announcing the cease-fire, or the APHC announced the HuM’s decision as it would have strengthened their position vis-à-vis Centre.
Besides, the cease-fire and efforts to initiate the dialogue is bound to undermine the role of
Pakistan
in
Kashmir
. Some analysts believe that without the blessings from
Pakistan
, the HuM would not have announced the cease-fire. Qazi Hussain Ahmad, Chief of the Jamaat-e-Islami, in an interview did not rule out the possibility of
Pakistan
’s hand in the cease-fire but it is dubious if
Pakistan
had any role in the HuM announcement.
Pakistan
is keeping a low profile, as it could neither support nor oppose the cease-fire, which is apparent from the statements made by different Pakistani officials. It could not oppose the cease-fire as that would earn a bad name for
Pakistan
among the international community, and affect the image which the Musharraf government. It cannot however support the cease-fire, as it would dent its standing among the various other militant groups. Whether peace will ultimately return to
Kashmir
without the co-operation of
Pakistan
is another matter, but the cease-fire will undermine the role of
Pakistan
in
Kashmir
.
Finally, success in the peace process will encourage other militant groups, which are also composed of local Kashmiris having inflence in select pockets of the Valley to enter into the peace process.
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