An analysis of the history of US relations towards
South Asia
would reveal that US has always acted on the basis of its own national security interests. Its policy towards
Kashmir
has been based on its national interests and not on the merits of the issues involved. With the end of
Cold War, India
had expected a balanced approach from the
US
on
Kashmir
. Unfortunately, the end of Cold War witnessed
India
and
Pakistan
emerging as de-facto nuclear weapons stakes in the 1990s. The “nuclear factor” resulted in the
US
terming
Kashmir
as a “Nuclear Flash-Point” in
South Asia
, which again has clouded its approach towards
Kashmir
. Subsequent
US
policy towards
India
and
Pakistan
, as was evident from its role during the Kargil war, was based on the mistaken belief that
Kashmir
has the potential to spark a nuclear war in
South Asia
.
The terrorist attacks of 11 September 2001 have changed the above misperceptions of the
US
on
Kashmir
. The first realization was the fact that the terrorist organizations fighting inside
Kashmir
are linked well with each other and to the Taliban regime through
Pakistan
. The very fact that the Taliban regime crumbled like a pack of cards, once the
Pakistan
military government and its ISI withdrew its support, revealed who was the main brain behind the organizational support for the Taliban and the other “Jihadi” organizations. The
US
also realized that, contrary to what has been claimed by
Pakistan
, the forces, which are fighting inside
Kashmir
, are not indigenous freedom fighters but terrorists actively aided and supported by
Pakistan
.
The September 11 attacks have also made considerable changes in the
US
perception of
Kashmir
, especially the “jihadi” organizations.
India
has been urging a ban on Lashkar-e-Toiba, Jaish-e-Mohammad and the Al Badr. Initially, only the Harkat-ul-Mujahideen was shown in their list of terrorist groups, this group had long been disbanded and its cadres had joined other outfits. However, recently the Jaish and the Lashkar have also been termed as militant organizations, which the US had refused to do all these years, despite pressure from India. By imposing a ban on these militant organizations, the
US
has tried to pressurize Musharraf to take actions against these groups.
Apparently, the Bush administration is adhering to what it had declared before the war against terrorism began. It had then announced that US efforts against terrorism would go beyond
Afghanistan
. The question is how long would this policy be sustained? Would the
US
continue to have the same policy once Osama bin Laden is caught dead or alive?
The reason for American interest regarding
Kashmir
issue is the nuclearisation of the sub-continent. Even after the capture of bin Laden, this would continue, hence one can expect the
US
to have continued interest in
Kashmir
.
Now what would be its focus in
Kashmir
? The
US
believes, that
Kashmir
, in the words of former
US
President, Bill Clinton, is "the most dangerous place in the world". This was re-emphasised recently by the
US
Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage. On the other hand,
India
would not like the
US
to get involved in any manner in
Kashmir
.
What should the
US
do in
Kashmir
? Collin Powell recently talked about the need to consider the 'wishes of the Kashmiri people' while settling the issue. It seems that US is derecognising the elected state government in
Jammu and Kashmir
. This is not in consistent with their policy of advocating democracy the world over. It would be better, if the
US
could force
Pakistan
to allow the forthcoming elections to proceed without militant threats. Outside
Kashmir
, the
US
should maintain its pressure both on
Pakistan
and
India
to engage themselves in a dialogue, which would focus on various issues including
Kashmir
. Inside and outside the region, the
US
should continue its current drive against terrorism with the same vigour. Once the terrorist factor is removed, normalcy would automatically return to
Kashmir
. Once normalcy returns,
Kashmir
would cease to be a flashpoint, nuclear or otherwise
.
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