On December 18, the last evening of campaigning, when everything seemed to be under control, there were two human bombings in Colombo to assasinate both the leading Presidential candidates of the People's Alliance (PA) and the United National Party (UNP). Though Chandrika Kumaratunga escaped, Maj. Gen. (retd) Lucky Alagama was not that lucky enough to survive the human bomb. In the wake of the two bombings, that have killed 32 persons so far and wounded more than 1000, what would happen to the election results? Will there be a postponement? Will the attempts swing the elections in favour of Chandrika?
The current Presidential elections is significant for
Sri Lanka
as it would decide the future of peace process in
Sri Lanka
. There are 13 contestants in the race the including Ranil Wikramesinghe of the UNP, Chandrika Kumaratunge of PA and Nandana Gunathilake of the Janata Vimukti Peramuna (JVP).
Chandrika was voted to power the previous time with a hope that she would be able find solution for the island’s ethnic crisis. Chandrika's repeated attempts to negotiate with the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) and her "Devolution package" have failed to yield the desired results. This was because of the LTTE's reluctance to participate in the peace process, PA's lack of majority in the Parliament and the lack of popular support outside the Parliament.
What are the prospects? Till the human bombings on the final day of campaigning, both the leading contestants were not sure of any " support wave", that could automatically guarantee a win. Though PA topped in two pre-poll surveys, the difference between the UNP and PA was only 2 percentage. In the previous elections Chandrika was able to win with the support of JVP and also secured more than 50 percentage of Tamil votes in the northern region. To make it worse the LTTE supremo Prabakaran announced on the "Hero's Day" that the Chandrika's regime was a curse on the Tamil people and warned them to keep away form her. The Tamil parties like Tamil United Liberation Party (TULF) and Eelam People's Revolutionary Liberation Front (EPRLF) which supported the PA in last elections have decided to remain neutral this time. Only the Eelam People's Democratic Party EPDP has announced its support to the PA. The lack of JVP's support this time will surely affect the prospects of Chandrika.
Besides, the Sri Lankan military reversals in the last two months at the hands of LTTE will have an impact on the elections. The military lost many of captured areas which took nearly four years.
The UNP leader, Raniel Wickeramasinghe, on the other hand, attracted a lot of attention by his pre-planned campaign. Though his party lost the recent five provincial elections they are happy with the percentage of votes casted in favour of them. With the LTTE's threat not to vote Chandrika, UNP may or may not increase its chance but definetly reduce her chance. Though the Tamil Eelam Liberation Organisation (TELO) has extended its support to UNP, it is doubtful whether the Tamils would vote for the UNP. Along with the LTTE threat, the dissatisfaction over both the parties may result in the Tamils not participating the elections.
The Janatha Vimukti Peramana (JVP) may get roughly around 5 to 10 percentage of votes. However JVP will cut the PA vote bank, which will increase the chance of Wickramasinghe. Though ten more people are there in the contest but they are not expected to share more votes.
The recently conducted survey which is in favor of Chandrika's PA party in a margin was conducted only in the Singhalese dominated southern region. But it is the minority Tamil's vote which is going to decide the new president.
Though the factors seem to be weighing against Chandrika, if not favouring Wikramasinghe, the attempt to assasinate Chandrika is of crucial importance, for the outcome of elections for two reasons. First, there may be a sympathy wave in her favour. Secondly her position vis-à-vis the LTTE stands vindicated despite the recent military defeat at the hands of the LTTE. Besides, Wikramesinghe was seen close to the LTTE during the election campaign, which may affect his chances. The bombings is sure to change the voting pattern, especially of those who are "undecided".
But whatever be the case, whoever be the President of Sri Lanka, given the nature of LTTE and its history, the future of peace in
Sri Lanka
depends either on uprooting the LTTE totally or granting Tamil Eelam as the LTTE demands. The former is not possible in the near future and the latter cannot be achieved.
Though the prospects of peace are not very bright, hope the island witness less of human bombs and assassinations in the new millennium.
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